DC United vs Inter Miami
Match recap
Inter Miami beat DC United 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Baribo scored for DC United; De Paul and Messi replied for Inter Miami. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.59 for DC United versus 0.98 for Inter Miami.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 DC United win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
DC United and Inter Miami face off in the third round of the MLS regular season, promising an intriguing contest between two sides with a fairly balanced head-to-head history.
Match factors
DC United's Tai Baribo is a consistent goal threat at home
Baribo scores 0.67 goals per home game, leveraging his striker role effectively
Inter Miami's Lionel Messi dominates scoring and playmaking
Messi leads with 23 goals and 11 assists, key to Inter Miami's attack
Keisuke Kurokawa provides significant assist threat from defense
Kurokawa's 6 assists surpass league defender average, enhancing DC United's attack
Inter Miami has a strong recent scoring streak
Inter Miami scored in last 5 matches, showing attacking consistency
No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads expected
Both teams have no confirmed outs, maximizing tactical options
The context
This fixture marks the third round of the 2026 MLS regular season. Both teams have shown competitive form in previous meetings, with DC United and Inter Miami sharing wins and draws evenly across their 12 encounters. The rivalry has produced an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating an open and attacking style from both sides.
Key insights
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo is a consistent goal threat at home, scoring 14 goals this season at 0.67 goals per game, making him a key factor in DC United's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
- L
Lionel Messi Cuccittini
Inter Miami
Messi dominates both scoring and playmaking for Inter Miami with 23 goals and 11 assists, crucial to their offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2723 goals and 11 assists in 25 appearances
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
Kurokawa provides a significant assist threat from defence with 6 assists, enhancing DC United's attacking options.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Rodrigo De Paul
Inter Miami
De Paul is a key playmaker with 9 assists, providing excellent passing and control in midfield for Inter Miami.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 23 appearances, 0.39 assists/game
Analysis
Looking at their recent performances and historical data, DC United have a slight edge at home, with striker Tai Baribo proving a consistent goal threat, scoring 14 goals this season at a rate of 0.67 goals per game. Inter Miami, meanwhile, rely heavily on Lionel Messi Cuccittini, who leads the league with 23 goals and 11 assists, making him a formidable opponent. The balance in their head-to-head record and goal-scoring stats suggests a tight match, but DC United's home form and attacking options could tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.In 12 meetings, DC United have won 4, Inter Miami 5, with 3 draws, showing a balanced rivalry.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.2 total goals, with both teams scoring 19 goals each.
- 3.Tai Baribo is DC United's leading scorer with 14 goals this season, averaging 0.67 goals per game.
- 4.Lionel Messi Cuccittini leads Inter Miami with 23 goals and 11 assists this season.
- 5.DC United's Keisuke Kurokawa provides significant assist threat from defence with 6 assists.
- 6.Inter Miami have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong attacking form.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are expected.
Prediction
The prediction favours a 2-1 victory for DC United. Despite Inter Miami's attacking prowess, DC United's home advantage and key players like Baribo are expected to secure the win. The match is likely to be competitive, but the home side should just edge it.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — Inter Miami
The verdict
In summary, expect a closely contested MLS fixture with DC United narrowly overcoming Inter Miami. Key players on both sides will influence the outcome, but the home side's attacking consistency should see them through to a 2-1 win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:19 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
De Paul
Assist: Segovia
Messi
Assist: Silvetti
Peglow
Yellow Card
Servania
Pirani
Silvetti
Baribo
Hopkins
St. Clair
Yellow Card
Segovia
Peltola
Match Statistics
DC United
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 10Gabriel PiraniM
- 15K. RowlesD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsM
Substitutes
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 13S. NealisD
- 17J. MurrellF
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 77Hosei KijimaM
Inter Miami
4-1-3-2Starting XI
- 4F. MuraD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 16MicaelD
- 19G. BerterameF
- 24Mateo SilvettiM
- 32N. AllenD
- 37M. FalcónD
- 42Y. BrightM
- 97D. St. ClairG
Substitutes
- 2G. LujánD
- 9L. SuárezF
- 17I. FrayD
- 21T. AllendeF
- 22D. AyalaM
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 41D. RuízM
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matti Peltola | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| João Peglow | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Tai Baribo | F | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jackson Hopkins | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/3 |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| Sean Johnson | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kye Rowles | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Nealis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conner Antley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murrell | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Louis Munteanu | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Inter Miami
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi(C) | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Yannick Bright | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Micael | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Falcón | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo de Paul | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Dayne St. Clair | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Allen | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Germán Berterame | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Facundo Mura | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mateo Silvetti | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Telasco Segovia | M | 88 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ezequiel Abadia-Reda | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Pinter | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ruíz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Fray | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rocco Ríos Novo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ayala | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Suárez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tadeo Allende | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Luján | D | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster's AI model predicted DC United to win against Inter Miami.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 2–1 Inter Miami.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 35% chance of winning, Inter Miami a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.