DC United vs FC Dallas
Match recap
FC Dallas beat DC United 4–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Farrington, Delgado, Urhoghide, and Musa scored for FC Dallas. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.61 for DC United versus 2.07 for FC Dallas.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 FC Dallas win
Actual
0–4
Outcome probability
DC United and FC Dallas face off in what promises to be a tightly contested regular season match. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but FC Dallas' recent performances suggest they might just have the edge.
Match factors
FC Dallas' prolific striker Musa vs DC United's defense
Petar Musa leads the league with 19 goals, posing a major threat to DC United's defense that concedes 1.79 goals at home.
Tai Baribo's strong home scoring form
Baribo has scored 14 goals this season with a 0.67 goals/game rate at home, making him DC United's primary scoring outlet.
Joaquín Valiente's assist form boosts FC Dallas attack
Valiente has 9 assists this season with strong recent form, enhancing FC Dallas' creative threat.
DC United missing Louis Munteanu weakens attacking options
Munteanu is confirmed out with a leg injury, reducing DC United's attacking depth and assist potential.
Keisuke Kurokawa's assist ability from defense
Kurokawa provides 6 assists this season, offering DC United attacking width and set-piece creativity.
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 6. FC Dallas currently sit third in their league with 47 points from 28 games, reflecting solid form. DC United have had mixed results, and this match could be pivotal for both sides' momentum.
Key insights
Petar Musa
FC Dallas
Petar Musa leads the league with 19 goals, posing a major threat to DC United's defence that concedes 1.79 goals at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2719 goals in 24 appearances, 0.79 goals/game
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo has scored 14 goals this season with a 0.67 goals/game rate at home, making him DC United's primary scoring outlet.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
Joaquín Valiente
FC Dallas
Valiente has 9 assists this season with strong recent form, enhancing FC Dallas' creative threat.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 26 appearances, 0.35 assists/game
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
Kurokawa provides 6 assists this season, offering DC United attacking width and set-piece creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Analysis
FC Dallas boast a prolific striker in Petar Musa, who leads the league with 19 goals this season and has been particularly effective away from home. His threat is compounded by Joaquín Valiente, the team's top assister with 9 assists, providing creativity and set-piece delivery. DC United rely heavily on Tai Baribo, their top scorer with 14 goals and a strong home scoring rate, but they are missing Louis Munteanu due to injury, which weakens their attacking options. Defensively, DC United concede an average of 1.79 goals at home, which could be exploited by FC Dallas' sharp attack. Keisuke Kurokawa offers attacking width and set-piece threat for DC United, but overall, FC Dallas' offensive firepower and form give them the tactical advantage.
Key facts
- 1.FC Dallas are third in the league with 47 points from 28 games.
- 2.Petar Musa leads the league with 19 goals this season.
- 3.Tai Baribo has scored 14 goals with a strong home scoring rate for DC United.
- 4.Joaquín Valiente has provided 9 assists for FC Dallas this season.
- 5.DC United concede an average of 1.79 goals per home game.
- 6.Louis Munteanu is out with a leg injury, weakening DC United's attack.
- 7.Keisuke Kurokawa leads DC United with 6 assists, offering set-piece threat.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is three.
Prediction
Despite the home advantage for DC United, the prediction leans towards an away win for FC Dallas with a 2-1 scoreline. The data suggests FC Dallas are more likely to edge this encounter, with their key players expected to make the difference. The match is expected to feature around three cards, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — FC Dallas
The verdict
In summary, FC Dallas' attacking strengths and current form make them the favourites to take all three points in this clash. DC United will need to tighten their defence and find a way to unlock their attack without Munteanu if they are to avoid defeat.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:44 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Farrington
Assist: Ramiro
Bartlett
Yellow Card
Delgado
Nealis
Hopkins
Delgado
Norris
Yellow Card
Baribo
Norris
Urhoghide
Assist: Valiente
Pirani
Servania
Herrera
Yellow Card
Farrington
Ramiro
Kaick
Musa
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
Match Statistics
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 10Gabriel PiraniM
- 13S. NealisD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsF
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 17J. MurrellF
- 22A. HerreraD
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
FC Dallas
3-5-2Starting XI
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 9P. MusaF
- 17RamiroM
- 18S. MooreM
- 23L. FarringtonF
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 30Michael CollodiG
- 32N. NorrisD
- 55KaickM
- 77B. KamungoM
Substitutes
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 7L. DeedsonF
- 10S. MorenoF
- 12C. CappisM
- 16Nicholas SimmondsF
- 21J. ValienteM
- 28Samuel SarverF
- 40J. SiroisG
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matti Peltola | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Jackson Hopkins | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Tai Baribo | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Sean Nealis | D | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Brandon Servania | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| João Peglow | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Johnson | G | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conner Antley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jacob Murrell | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Louis Munteanu | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Herrera | D | 30 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
FC Dallas
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osaze Urhoghide | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Michael Collodi | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastien Ibeagha | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Petar Musa | F | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Patrickson Delgado | M | 67 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ramiro(C) | M | 85 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Logan Farrington | F | 85 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Kaick | M | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Shaq Moore | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bernard Kamungo | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nolan Norris | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lalas Abubakar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louicius Don Deedson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sirois | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Simmonds | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Valiente | M | 19 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Santiago Moreno | F | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Christian Cappis | M | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Sarver | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ran Binyamin | M | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs FC Dallas?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Dallas to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs FC Dallas?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 1–2 FC Dallas.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs FC Dallas?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 32% chance of winning, FC Dallas a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.