Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama
Match recap
Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama drew 3–3 in their Serie A fixture. Christian, Villareal, and Japa scored for Cruzeiro; Cauan Barros, Cauan Barros, and Brenner replied for Vasco DA Gama. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.29 for Cruzeiro versus 1.22 for Vasco DA Gama. Cruzeiro sit 3rd in the Serie A table while Vasco DA Gama are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Cruzeiro win
Actual
3–3
Outcome probability
Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama face off in this Regular Season - 6 fixture, with Cruzeiro expected to leverage their attacking strengths to claim a decisive victory.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield dominance
Matheus Pereira's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Cruzeiro a creative edge
Home scoring form favors Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro averages 1.73 goals at home, above league average, supporting predicted 3 goals
Matheus Pereira's recent scoring surge
4 goals in last 5 matches shows hot form, boosting scoring probability
Absence of Fabrício Bruno weakens Cruzeiro defense
Confirmed out defender Fabrício Bruno's absence may increase defensive vulnerability
Vasco's defensive stalwart Cuiabano key to containing attack
Cuiabano's defensive work and assist threat critical to Vasco's resistance
The context
Both teams have a balanced rivalry historically, but Cruzeiro currently hold a better league position and goal difference. This match is a chance for Cruzeiro to consolidate their form and for Vasco to challenge that dominance.
Key insights
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Cruzeiro a creative edge.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 apps, with 4 goals in last 5 matches.
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge's consistent home scoring record boosts Cruzeiro's attacking threat.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 22 apps, 0.36 goals/game, strong recent form.
Cuiabano
Vasco DA Gama
Cuiabano's defensive work and assist threat are critical to Vasco's resistance.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 18 apps, strong defensive presence.
Analysis
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield, led by Matheus Pereira, who boasts 8 goals and 4 assists this season, provides a creative edge that Vasco will struggle to contain. Pereira's recent hot streak, with 4 goals in the last 5 matches, highlights his influence. Meanwhile, Vasco's defensive efforts, anchored by Cuiabano, will be tested against Cruzeiro's home scoring average of 1.73 goals per game. The absence of defender Fabrício Bruno for Cruzeiro may slightly weaken their backline, but their offensive firepower is expected to compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro rank 5th in the league with 48 points from 29 games, ahead of Vasco DA Gama.
- 2.Cruzeiro have a better goal difference (+4) compared to Vasco DA Gama (-6) this season.
- 3.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 8 goals and 4 assists, showing strong recent form.
- 4.Cruzeiro average 1.73 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 5.Vasco's Carlos Gómez Hinestroza is their top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.Cruzeiro have won 7 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Vasco DA Gama, with 7 draws and 6 losses.
- 7.Fabrício Bruno's confirmed absence may impact Cruzeiro's defensive solidity.
- 8.Cuiabano is a key defensive player for Vasco, contributing both defensively and offensively.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Cruzeiro with a 3-0 scoreline, reflecting their strong attacking form and home advantage. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, setting the tone for a commanding performance.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cruzeiro
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
Cruzeiro's blend of creative midfield play and consistent home scoring makes them the favourites to secure a comfortable win. Vasco DA Gama will need to tighten their defence and find offensive solutions to challenge this prediction.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Christian
Assist: Kaiki
Gómez
Yellow Card
Cauan Barros
Assist: Cuiabano
Cauan Barros
Matheus Pereira
Yellow Card
Card upgrade
Cauan Barros
Red Card
Christian
David
Silva
Nuno Moreira
Gómez
Villareal
Assist: da Costa
Moura
Brenner
Assist: Rodríguez
Villalba
Tchê Tchê
Matheus Henrique
William
Brenner
Yellow Card
Japa
Assist: Moraes
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6KaikiD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 12WilliamD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 31Matheus CunhaG
- 88ChristianM
- 91Francisco da CostaF
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 5WalaceM
- 22N. VillarealM
- 23FágnerD
- 34JonathanD
- 43João MarceloD
- 70KenjiF
- 77JapaM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 94WandersonF
- 99K. ArroyoF
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 64WalaceD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 98JPM
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William | D | 91 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Christian | M | 60 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Gerson | M | 102 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 102 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Kaiki | D | 102 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 102 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva(C) | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Chico da Costa | F | 102 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 102 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kaique Kenji | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fagner | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | 11 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 11 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Wanderson | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | 41 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | F | 42 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cauan Barros | M | 59 | 7.2 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Cuiabano | D | 102 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 102 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hugo Moura(C) | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| David | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 40 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 40 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| JP | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 41 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cruzeiro 3–0 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Cruzeiro a 35% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.