Cruzeiro vs Mirassol

Serie AMatchweek 22
Full Time
31
HT: 11
Ref: Lucas Casagrande, BrazilEstádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais · 62,170 cap
Fipster Pick
Home WinhighHit
Full-time story

Cruzeiro secures solid win over Mirassol

João Marcelo's early strike set the tone for a confident home victory.

Cruzeiro took control early with João Marcelo's goal in the 12th minute, only for Mirassol to level from the penalty spot through Reinaldo at 27'. However, Cruzeiro pulled away after the break with goals from Kaio Jorge and Wesley Gassova in the second half, sealing a 3-1 win. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the final scoreline was more emphatic than expected.

FıpsterSelf-Score Card
Appropriate✓ Hit
Fipster's Pick
20
HT 1–0
Final Result
31
HT 1–1
50%Fair
C
OutcomeExact ScoreBTTSOver/Under 2.5Halftime
Fipster's self review9 Aug 2026

Outcome probability

Cruzeiro 95%Draw 3%Mirassol 2%

Cruzeiro and Mirassol face off in the 22nd round of the regular season, with Cruzeiro looking to extend their advantage over their visitors. Both teams have had mixed fortunes this season, but the stats and form suggest Cruzeiro will have the upper hand in this encounter.

Match factors

Injury Impacthigh

Fágner suspension weakens Cruzeiro defense

Fágner is confirmed out due to yellow card suspension, reducing defensive experience and assist potential

Statistical Edgehigh

Cruzeiro's attacking midfield strength

Matheus Pereira and Christian combine for 9 goals and 5 assists this season, above league average for midfielders

Form Momentumhigh

Kaio Jorge's recent scoring form

Kaio Jorge scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, showing strong finishing form at home

Tactical Advantagemedium

Mirassol's defensive vulnerabilities away

Mirassol concedes 1.6 goals per away game, higher than league average, favoring Cruzeiro's attack

Statistical Edgemedium

Reinaldo's creative threat from defense

Reinaldo leads Mirassol defenders with 2 assists, providing attacking width and set-piece delivery

The context

Cruzeiro currently sit 11th in the league with 27 points from 20 games, while Mirassol are 14th with 23 points. Their head-to-head record shows Cruzeiro with one win and two draws in three meetings, indicating a slight edge. The average goals per match between them is a moderate three, suggesting a balanced contest with a tendency towards Cruzeiro's favour.

Analysis

Cruzeiro's attacking midfield duo, Matheus Pereira and Christian, have been influential this season, combining for nine goals and five assists, which is above the league average for midfielders. Kaio Jorge, the team's key striker, has been in good form with two goals in his last five matches and a solid home scoring rate. Mirassol, on the other hand, have defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per away game, which bodes well for Cruzeiro's attack. The absence of Cruzeiro's experienced defender Fágner due to suspension might slightly weaken their defence, but their offensive strengths should compensate.

Key facts

  1. 1.Cruzeiro lead the head-to-head with 1 win and 2 draws in 3 matches against Mirassol.
  2. 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
  3. 3.Cruzeiro are 11th in the league with 27 points from 20 games (W7 D6 L7).
  4. 4.Mirassol are 14th with 23 points from 20 games (W6 D5 L9).
  5. 5.Kaio Jorge has scored 5 goals in 14 appearances, with strong recent form.
  6. 6.Matheus Pereira and Christian combine for 9 goals and 5 assists this season.
  7. 7.Mirassol concede 1.6 goals per away game, higher than league average.
  8. 8.Fágner is suspended for Cruzeiro, impacting defensive experience.

Prediction

We expect Cruzeiro to take the lead by halftime with a 1-0 scoreline and extend their advantage to a 2-0 victory by fulltime. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Cruzeiro's home advantage and attacking prowess make them the likely winners in this fixture.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

HomeCruzeiro

Kaio Jorge

Kaio Jorge

Attacker

Cruzeiro

Total Goals
5
League avg: 0.65
14 played
13 starts
1109 mins
~79 mins/game
Christian

Christian

Midfielder

Cruzeiro

Total Goals
5
League avg: 0.65
17 played
15 starts
1257 mins
~74 mins/game
Matheus Pereira

Matheus Pereira

Midfielder

Cruzeiro

Total Goals
4
League avg: 0.65
17 played
17 starts
1526 mins
~90 mins/game

AwayMirassol

Igor Formiga

Igor Formiga

Defender

Mirassol

Total Goals
4
League avg: 0.65
16 played
15 starts
1332 mins
~83 mins/game
Negueba

Negueba

Attacker

Mirassol

Total Goals
2
League avg: 0.65
9 played
9 starts
818 mins
~91 mins/game

The verdict

In summary, Cruzeiro's stronger league standing, effective attacking midfield, and home form should see them comfortably overcome Mirassol. While Mirassol will look to frustrate, Cruzeiro's quality up front is expected to shine through for a 2-0 win.