Cruzeiro vs Gremio
Match recap
Cruzeiro beat Gremio 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Christian and Romero scored for Cruzeiro. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.85 for Cruzeiro versus 0.48 for Gremio. Cruzeiro sit 3rd in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Cruzeiro win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Cruzeiro and Gremio face off in the 12th round of the regular season, with Cruzeiro looking to extend their strong home form against a struggling Gremio side.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield dominance
Matheus Pereira's high goal and assist output from midfield gives Cruzeiro a creative edge
Home scoring form favors Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro averages 1.7 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 4-0 score
Kaio Jorge's recent scoring streak
Kaio Jorge scored 3 goals in last 5 games, showing strong form to add to Cruzeiro's tally
Gremio's reliance on Carlos Vinícius
Vinícius is Gremio's main scorer but has failed to score in last 10 matches, limiting threat
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, so all key players are available to influence the match
The context
Cruzeiro currently sit 6th in the league with 48 points from 29 games, boasting a solid goal difference of +12. Gremio, on the other hand, are 18th with 31 points from 30 games and a less impressive record. Historically, Cruzeiro have a slight edge in their 20 meetings, winning 8 to Gremio's 6, with 6 draws.
Key insights
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira's 9 goals and 5 assists this season give Cruzeiro a creative and scoring edge from midfield, crucial for their attacking dominance.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 5 assists in 26 apps, 0.35 goals/game, 0.19 assists/game
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge's recent form with 3 goals in the last 5 games boosts Cruzeiro's attacking threat, especially at home.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 22 apps, 0.36 goals/game; 3 goals in last 5 games
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's main scoring outlet but his lack of goals in the last 10 matches limits their offensive threat.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 29 apps, 0.34 goals/game; no goals in last 10 matches
Analysis
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield, led by Matheus Pereira, provides a creative edge with 9 goals and 5 assists this season. Kaio Jorge's recent scoring streak adds further firepower. Gremio rely heavily on Carlos Vinícius, who has struggled to find the net recently. Cruzeiro's home scoring average of 1.7 goals per game supports the prediction of a dominant 4-0 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro are 6th in the league with 48 points from 29 games (W14 D6 L9).
- 2.Gremio are 18th with 31 points from 30 games (W7 D10 L13).
- 3.Cruzeiro have a +12 goal difference, significantly better than Gremio.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro have won 8, Gremio 6, with 6 draws.
- 5.Cruzeiro average 1.7 goals per home game this season.
- 6.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists this season.
- 7.Kaio Jorge has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games for Cruzeiro.
- 8.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals but has not scored in the last 10 matches.
Prediction
Expect Cruzeiro to secure a comprehensive 4-0 victory, building on a strong first half that sees them leading 2-0 at halftime. The match should feature disciplined play with around four cards shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cruzeiro
Away — Gremio
The verdict
With all key players available and Cruzeiro's superior form, this match looks set to be a straightforward win for the home side. Gremio will need a miracle to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Villalba
Yellow Card
Fabrício Bruno
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Yellow Card
Kaio Jorge
Christian
Assist: Gerson
Nardoni
Noriega
Yellow Card
Gerson
Romero
Assist: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Noriega
Enamorado
Amuzu
Christian
Romero
Martins
Yellow Card
Carlos Vinícius
Pérez
Yellow Card
Silva
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6KaikiD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 23FágnerD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 31Matheus CunhaG
- 34JonathanD
- 88ChristianM
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 17L. SinisterraF
- 22N. VillarealM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 91Francisco da CostaF
- 94WandersonF
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónD
- 8ArthurM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 21TetêF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 33L. PérezM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 39TiagoM
- 43Luis EduardoD
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 75 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gerson | M | 61 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Kaiki | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4/6 |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 68 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0/1 |
| Christian | M | 75 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fagner | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Villalba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico da Costa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Prates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neyser Villarreal | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/6 |
| Cristian Pavon | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabian Balbuena | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Guedes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cruzeiro 4–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Cruzeiro a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.