Cruzeiro vs Coritiba
Match recap
Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Matheus Pereira scored for Cruzeiro; Lavega and Breno Lopes replied for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.94 for Cruzeiro versus 2.13 for Coritiba. Cruzeiro sit 3rd in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Cruzeiro win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Cruzeiro and Coritiba face off in the second round of the regular season, with Cruzeiro looking to assert their dominance after a strong start to the campaign.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield dominance
Matheus Pereira's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Cruzeiro a creative edge
Kaio Jorge's home scoring form
Kaio Jorge averages 1 goal per home game in last 2 matches, boosting Cruzeiro's scoring chances
Coritiba's defensive weakness due to Tiago Cóser absence
Tiago Cóser is confirmed out, weakening Coritiba's defense against a strong Cruzeiro attack
Cruzeiro's positive scoring streak
Cruzeiro has scored in last 5 matches, indicating strong offensive momentum
Josué's creative influence for Coritiba
Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, key to unlocking chances despite team struggles
The context
Cruzeiro currently sit 5th in the league with 48 points from 29 games, boasting a healthy goal difference of +14. Coritiba are positioned 9th with 38 points and a less impressive goal difference. Historically, their head-to-head meetings have been evenly matched, but recent form and squad strength suggest a tilt in Cruzeiro's favour.
Key insights
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Cruzeiro a creative edge.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 games this season.
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge averages a goal per home game in his last two matches, boosting Cruzeiro's scoring chances.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 22 games with strong recent home form.
- T
Tiago Cóser
Coritiba
Tiago Cóser's confirmed absence weakens Coritiba's defensive stability against Cruzeiro's attack.
Serie A 26/27Key defender with high minutes and tackles, now ruled out.
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 10 assists make him a key creative presence for Coritiba despite team struggles.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 games this season.
Analysis
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield, led by Matheus Pereira, who has 8 goals and 4 assists this season, provides a creative edge that Coritiba will struggle to contain. Kaio Jorge, the home side's top scorer with 8 goals, has been particularly clinical at home, scoring in his last two matches. Coritiba's defensive frailties are compounded by the confirmed absence of key defender Tiago Cóser, weakening their backline against a potent Cruzeiro attack. Meanwhile, Coritiba's creative spark Josué, with 10 assists, will need to be at his best to unlock chances, but the overall momentum favours Cruzeiro.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro are 5th in the league with 48 points from 29 games.
- 2.Coritiba are 9th with 38 points from 29 games.
- 3.Cruzeiro have a +14 goal difference, significantly better than Coritiba.
- 4.In 19 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro and Coritiba have each won 8 times with 3 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game.
- 6.Kaio Jorge is Cruzeiro's top scorer with 8 goals this season.
- 7.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 8 goals and 4 assists.
- 8.Coritiba's key defender Tiago Cóser is confirmed out, weakening their defence.
Prediction
Expect Cruzeiro to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their advantage to a 4-0 victory by fulltime. The match should feature moderate discipline with around four cards shown, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cruzeiro
Away — Coritiba
The verdict
With superior form, key players firing on all cylinders, and a weakened Coritiba defence, Cruzeiro look set to deliver a comprehensive win. Fans can anticipate an entertaining display of attacking football and a comfortable three points for the home side.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Matheus Pereira
Assist: Romero
Rocha
Yellow Card
Lavega
Assist: Melo
Arroyo
Gómez
Breno Lopes
Kaiki
Yellow Card
William
Romero
Fabrício Bruno
Yellow Card
Breno Lopes
Lavega
Cóser
Gerson
Kaiki
Maicon
Jacy
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1CássioG
- 6KaikiD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 12WilliamD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 29L. RomeroM
- 43João MarceloD
- 88ChristianM
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 22N. VillarealM
- 23FágnerD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 33JoséD
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 70KenjiF
- 77JapaM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 94WandersonF
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 19S. GómezM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 14Enzo VágnerF
- 16João VitorD
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 22Felipe GuimarãesD
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 55JacyD
- 88Fernando SobralM
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Kaiki | D | 83 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 59 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Gerson | M | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Marcelo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| William | D | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Cássio | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauã Moraes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Janderson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fagner | D | 31 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 31 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Silva | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kauã Prates | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breno Lopes | M | 67 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 73 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago | D | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 3/5 |
| Tinga | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Guimarães | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Almeida | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo Vágner | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brayan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Thiago Santos | M | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cruzeiro 4–0 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Cruzeiro a 95% chance of winning, Coritiba a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.