Cruzeiro vs Corinthians
Match recap
Cruzeiro and Corinthians drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Matheus Pereira scored for Cruzeiro; João Pedro replied for Corinthians. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.71 for Cruzeiro versus 0.22 for Corinthians. Cruzeiro sit 3rd in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 17th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Cruzeiro win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Cruzeiro and Corinthians face off in the fourth round of the regular season, with Cruzeiro expected to assert their dominance. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but the home side's form and attacking options suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield dominance
Matheus Pereira's high goal and assist output gives Cruzeiro a creative edge
Kaio Jorge's home scoring form
Kaio Jorge has scored 3 goals in last 5 home games, boosting Cruzeiro's attack
Corinthians missing key attackers
Rodrigo Garro and others confirmed out, weakening Corinthians' offensive threat
Cruzeiro's positive scoring streak
Cruzeiro has scored in last 5 matches, indicating strong offensive momentum
Corinthians defensive challenges
Corinthians concede frequently and have defensive doubts, favoring Cruzeiro's attack
The context
This match is part of the regular season where Cruzeiro currently enjoy a better league standing and goal difference than Corinthians. Historically, Cruzeiro have edged these encounters with nine wins in 20 meetings, compared to Corinthians' six, with five draws. The home side's recent scoring streak and points-per-game advantage add further weight to their prospects.
Key insights
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira's 8 goals and 4 assists this season, including 4 goals in the last 5 matches, give Cruzeiro a creative and scoring edge.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 apps, 0.32 goals/game, 0.16 assists/game
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge's strong home scoring form with 3 goals in the last 5 home games boosts Cruzeiro's attacking threat.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 22 apps, 0.36 goals/game
Analysis
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield, led by Matheus Pereira, provides a creative edge with 8 goals and 4 assists this season, including 4 goals in the last 5 matches. Kaio Jorge, the top scorer with 8 goals, boasts strong home form, netting 3 times in his last 5 home games. Corinthians face defensive challenges and key absences in attack, which could blunt their threat and leave them vulnerable to Cruzeiro's offensive momentum.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro have a better league standing and goal difference than Corinthians this season.
- 2.Cruzeiro hold a notable points-per-game advantage over Corinthians.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro have won 9, Corinthians 6, with 5 draws.
- 4.Matheus Pereira has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists this season, including 4 goals in the last 5 matches.
- 5.Kaio Jorge has scored 8 goals this season, with 3 in his last 5 home games.
- 6.Corinthians face defensive doubts and key attackers are confirmed out.
- 7.Cruzeiro have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum.
Prediction
The forecast strongly favours a home win for Cruzeiro, with a dominant 4-0 scoreline. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 aligns with this, suggesting Cruzeiro will control the match from the outset. The home side's attacking firepower and defensive solidity should see them comfortably outclass Corinthians.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cruzeiro
Away — Corinthians
No standout top scorers flagged for Corinthians
The verdict
In summary, Cruzeiro's superior form, attacking talent, and home advantage make them the clear pick to secure a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Corinthians. Expect a confident display that underscores their status as the team to beat this season.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:54 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
William
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Goal cancelled
Raniele
Breno
Christian
Charles
Vitinho
Romero
Yellow Card
Ramalho
Yellow Card
Pedro Raul
Romero
Kaio Jorge
William
Red Card
William
Yellow Card
João Pedro
Assist: Garro
Gerson
Angileri
Yellow Card
Carrillo
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1CássioG
- 6KaikiD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 12WilliamD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 88ChristianM
Substitutes
- 5WalaceM
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 20Bruno RodriguesF
- 22N. VillarealM
- 23FágnerD
- 33JoséD
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 77JapaM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 94WandersonF
- 99K. ArroyoF
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 7BrenoM
- 11VitinhoM
- 14RanieleM
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 20P. MilansD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 35CharlesM
Substitutes
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 8R. GarroM
- 10M. DepayF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 29AllanM
- 31KaykeF
- 49AndreM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 79 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cássio | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Silva(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| William | D | 80 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Christian | M | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kaiki | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauã Prates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Janderson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | F | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fagner | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro Tchoca | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Hugo Souza(C) | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| André Carrillo | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| André Ramalho | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Breno Bidon | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Raniele | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Pedro Raul | F | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gui Negão | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayke Ferrari | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 23 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Garro | M | 23 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| André Luiz | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Memphis Depay | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cruzeiro vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cruzeiro vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cruzeiro 4–0 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Cruzeiro vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Cruzeiro a 91% chance of winning, Corinthians a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.