Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Cruzeiro edge Bahia in five-goal thriller
Kaio Jorge shines with a brace as Cruzeiro hold on for a narrow win.
Cruzeiro secured a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Bahia in Serie A, with Kaio Jorge starring by scoring twice and adding a missed penalty. Despite Bahia's early lead through C. Olivera and a last-gasp goal from A. Véliz, Cruzeiro's resilience saw them claim the win thanks to goals from Kaio Jorge and Bruno Rodrigues. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline proved a bit more dramatic than the anticipated 3-0.
Outcome probability
Cruzeiro and Bahia face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks poised to assert their dominance. With Cruzeiro sitting comfortably in the league standings and boasting strong attacking form, this match promises a clear narrative.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking trio in strong form
Kaio Jorge leads with 11 goals and Matheus Pereira provides creativity, forming a potent attacking threat
Luciano Juba's unusual scoring threat
Bahia's defender Luciano Juba has 11 goals this season, a rare scoring output for his position
Matheus Pereira's assist form boosts Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira has 3 assists in last 5 games, enhancing Cruzeiro's goal creation chances
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, ensuring strongest lineups possible
The context
Cruzeiro currently rank third in their league with 54 points from 32 games, reflecting consistent performances. Bahia, meanwhile, have struggled to match this level, with Cruzeiro holding a superior head-to-head record, having won half of their 20 meetings.
Key insights
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Top scorer for Cruzeiro with 11 goals, including 6 in the last 5 matches, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/2711 goals in 25 apps, 0.44 avg per game
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Leading assist provider with 6 assists this season and 3 in the last 5 games, boosting Cruzeiro’s creativity.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 28 apps, 0.21 avg per game
- L
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Unusually prolific defender with 11 goals, a rare scoring threat from the back.
Serie A 26/2711 goals in 28 apps, exceptional for a defender
Analysis
The statistical edge lies firmly with Cruzeiro, who have a 90% combined probability of winning this fixture. Their attacking duo, Kaio Jorge and Matheus Pereira, have been in fine form, contributing significantly to the team's goal tally. Kaio Jorge leads with 11 goals this season, including six in the last five matches, while Pereira's creativity has yielded six assists overall. Bahia's standout player, defender Luciano Juba, impressively matches Cruzeiro's top scorer with 11 goals, but the overall team form and home advantage favour Cruzeiro.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro are third in the league with 54 points from 32 games.
- 2.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro have won 10, Bahia 4, with 6 draws.
- 3.Kaio Jorge is Cruzeiro's top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 4.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 6 assists and has 3 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Luciano Juba, Bahia's defender, has an impressive 11 goals this season.
- 6.Predicted fulltime score is 3-0 in favour of Cruzeiro.
- 7.Halftime predicted score is 1-0 to Cruzeiro.
- 8.Expected total cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
Expect Cruzeiro to take an early lead, going 1-0 up by halftime and extending their advantage to a 3-0 victory by fulltime. The match is likely to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cruzeiro
Away — Bahia
No standout top scorers flagged for Bahia
The verdict
With both teams fielding their strongest lineups and Cruzeiro's attacking momentum, this fixture looks set to be a comfortable home win. Bahia will need to tighten their defence to avoid a heavy defeat, but the stats and form suggest Cruzeiro will have the final say.
Prediction generated 30 Oct 2026, 00:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fabrício Bruno
Acevedo
Yellow Card
Olivera
Assist: Rodrigo Nestor
Kaio Jorge
Assist: Arroyo
Acevedo
Kaio Jorge
Missed Penalty · Assist: Kaio Jorge
Éverton Ribeiro
Erick
Rodrigo Nestor
Bruno Rodrigues
Assist: Arroyo
Bruno Rodrigues
Yellow Card
Jonathan
Yellow Card
Bruno Rodrigues
Arroyo
Fágner
Kanu
Kaio Jorge
Assist: Romero
Gerson
Véliz
Assist: Juba
Moraes
Yellow Card
Caio Alexandre
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +6 | 57 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | +6 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
Match Statistics
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Zé LucasM
- 8GersonM
- 9Bruno RodriguesM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 23FágnerD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 34JonathanD
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 1CássioG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 6M. ViñaD
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 11MarquinhosF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 22N. VillarealM
- 41Leo AragãoG
- 67João Gabriel e Costa CescoF
- 94WandersonF
- 97L. RodríguezF
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 4KanuD
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 9A. VélizF
- 10Éverton RibeiroF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 33David DuarteD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 6Jean LucasM
- 7AdemirF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
- 77Ruan PabloF
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 91 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4/5 |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 91 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 82 | 7.7 | — | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1/2 |
| Bruno Rodrigues | M | 82 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 91 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Fagner | D | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Zé Lucas | M | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Otávio Costa | G | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luciano Rodríguez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cássio | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Aragão | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Costa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matías Viña | D | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Marquinhos | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Olivera | M | 91 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Nicolás Acevedo | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Erick | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejo Véliz | F | 91 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 4/5 |
| David Duarte | D | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Ronaldo | G | 91 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ademir | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Guilherme | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruan Pablo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guido Herrera | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Michel Araújo | M | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Bahia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cruzeiro 3–0 Bahia.
- What were the win probabilities for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
- Fipster's model gave Cruzeiro a 95% chance of winning, Bahia a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.