Spain vs Croatia
Spain's Yamal shines in commanding win
A dazzling double from Lamine Yamal sets Spain on course for a comfortable Nations League victory over Croatia.
Spain cruised to a 4-1 victory against Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, with Lamine Yamal starring by netting twice, including an early opener at 2 minutes. Marc Pubill and Nico Williams also contributed to Spain's dominant display, while D. Beljo offered a brief response for Croatia. Fipster's prediction of a Spanish win was on the money, though the actual scoreline was more emphatic than the anticipated 2-1.
Outcome probability
Spain and Croatia face off in a League A encounter that promises to be a tactical battle. Both sides have shown attacking prowess recently, setting up a competitive fixture where fine margins will decide the winner.
Match factors
Spain's attacking midfielders in strong recent form
Lamine Yamal and Álex Baena both scored and assisted in last match, showing high attacking impact
Croatia's midfielders showing goal threat
Luka Modrić and Marco Pasalic scored in last match, indicating offensive momentum
Spain's midfield creativity vs Croatia's defense
Spain's creative midfielders have high passing and shooting involvement, likely to challenge Croatia's defense
Spain's higher average goals scored per game
Spain averages 3 goals per game away, compared to Croatia's 2, supporting home win prediction
Croatia's wide attacking threat from Perišić
Perišić's assist and crossing ability provide Croatia with key offensive outlet on the flank
The context
In this League A round 2 match, Spain and Croatia both come in with perfect records from one game each, Spain scoring 3 and conceding 2, Croatia scoring 2 and conceding 1. This sets the tone for a tight contest between two teams eager to maintain their unbeaten starts.
Key insights
- L
Lamine Yamal
Spain
Scored in last match with 7 shots total, showing high attacking threat and key role with an 8.2 rating.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, 7 shots, 90 minutes, rating 8.2
- Á
Álex Baena
Spain
Scored and assisted in last match with a high rating of 8.34, showing strong impact off the bench.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, 1 assist, rating 8.34
- L
L. Modrić
Croatia
Scored and rated 8.2 in last away match, providing creative midfield presence and assist potential.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, rating 8.2
- M
Marco Pasalic
Croatia
Emerging attacking midfielder with goal threat, scored in last match with a 7.66 rating.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, rating 7.66
- I
I. Perišić
Croatia
Provided assist in last match with solid rating, key wide player with crossing and set-piece ability.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist, rating 7.26
Analysis
Spain's midfield creativity, led by Lamine Yamal and Álex Baena, has been impressive, with both players scoring and assisting in their last match. Croatia counters with experienced midfielders like Luka Modrić and emerging talents such as Marco Pasalic, who also found the net recently. Spain's slightly higher average goals per game and home advantage give them a tactical edge, though Croatia's wide threat from Ivan Perišić ensures they remain dangerous. The data suggests a balanced first half, likely ending 1-1, before Spain pulls ahead in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.Spain have a 1-0-0 record in this competition, scoring 3 and conceding 2 goals.
- 2.Croatia also hold a 1-0-0 record, scoring 2 and conceding 1 goal in this competition.
- 3.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, indicating a balanced first half.
- 4.Spain's midfielders Lamine Yamal and Álex Baena both scored and assisted in their last match.
- 5.Croatia's Luka Modrić and Marco Pasalic have shown goal threat recently.
- 6.Ivan Perišić provides Croatia with a key wide attacking outlet and assist potential.
- 7.The match is expected to feature around 4 cards, suggesting a competitive and physical game.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 2-1 victory for Spain, following a 1-1 halftime scoreline. This reflects a competitive match where Spain's attacking midfielders and overall offensive efficiency just tip the scales in their favour. Expect a closely fought game with four cards shown, indicating a spirited contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Spain
Away — Croatia
The verdict
While the match is finely balanced, Spain's home form and creative midfielders give them the slight edge to secure a narrow win. Croatia will push hard, but Spain's ability to find that crucial second-half goal should see them through.
Prediction generated 26 Sep 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Yamal
Assist: Álex Baena
Pongračić
Yellow Card
Beljo
Assist: Perišić
Pubill
Assist: Yamal
Sučić
Yellow Card
Pongračić
Álex Baena
Yellow Card
Pasalic
Yellow Card
Fermín
Ruiz
Mišić
Yellow Card
Beljo
Kovačić
Yamal
Assist: Pedri
Yamal
Álex Baena
Zubimendi
Perišić
Sučić
Nico Williams
Assist: Merino
Match Statistics
Spain
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 9FermínM
- 12Marc PubillD
- 15Álex BaenaF
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
- 19Lamine YamalF
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 23Unai SimónG
Substitutes
- 1David RayaG
- 3Álex GrimaldoD
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 7Ferran TorresF
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 11Víctor MuñozF
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 16RodriM
- 17Nico WilliamsF
- 20PedriM
Croatia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2I. SmolčićD
- 3M. PongračićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 17P. SučićM
- 19Marco PasalicM
- 20D. BeljoF
- 22J. MišićM
Substitutes
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 7F. IvanovićF
- 9A. KramarićF
- 10L. ModrićM
- 11A. BudimirF
- 12I. PandurG
- 13N. VlašićM
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 18K. JakićM
- 21L. SučićM
- 23D. KotarskiG
Spain
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | F | 68 | 9.4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/9 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Nico Williams | F | 22 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Rodri | M | 18 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Pedri | M | 33 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fermín | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Álex Baena | F | 68 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 72 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 57 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 33 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Víctor Muñoz | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Álex Grimaldo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Raya | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josep Martínez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Croatia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Beljo | F | 60 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| I. Perišić | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Ivanović | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Modrić | M | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Kovačić | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Budimir | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Smolčić | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mišić | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Vušković | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 30 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 81 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Marco Pasalic | M | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Pongračić | D | 46 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kotarski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Jakić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pandur | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Sučić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Spain vs Croatia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Spain to win against Croatia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Spain vs Croatia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Spain 2–1 Croatia.
- What were the win probabilities for Spain vs Croatia?
- Fipster's model gave Spain a 54% chance of winning, Croatia a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.