England vs Croatia
England edge Croatia in tight Nations League clash
Kane's penalty seals a narrow 2-1 victory after Sučić's equaliser.
England secured a narrow 2-1 win over Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, with M. Rogers opening the scoring before P. Sučić levelled for Croatia after the break. H. Kane then converted a penalty to restore England's lead and clinch the victory. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
England and Croatia face off in a League A fixture that promises goals and drama. Both teams have shown contrasting form in the competition, setting the stage for an entertaining encounter.
Match factors
England's attacking trio in strong form
Kane, Gordon, and Saka have high recent scoring rates, likely to exploit Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities
Bellingham's creative dominance
Bellingham leads England with 4 assists this season, key to unlocking Croatia's defense
England's strong away scoring form
England averages 4.5 goals away recently, boosting confidence in their offensive output
Perišić's set-piece threat for Croatia
Perišić's 2 assists and set-piece role provide Croatia with key creative outlet
No confirmed absences for England or Croatia
Full squads available, maximizing tactical options and player impact
The context
In this League A phase, England have impressed with three wins from four matches, netting 14 goals while conceding just three. Croatia, on the other hand, have struggled, losing three of four games and conceding 14 goals with only four scored. Their head-to-head history favours England, who have won three of five meetings with two draws and no losses.
Key insights
Harry Kane
England
Kane is in red-hot form with 7 goals in his last 10 games, making him England’s top scoring threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/277 goals in last 10 games, 4 at home, 3 away, 3 appearances
Jude Bellingham
England
Bellingham’s 4 assists this season highlight his creative dominance and key role in England’s attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 assists in 3 appearances, avg 66 min per game
Anthony Gordon
England
Gordon’s consistent scoring with 3 goals this season adds depth to England’s forward line.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 goals in last 10 games, 3 appearances
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
Perišić’s 2 assists and set-piece expertise provide Croatia with a vital creative outlet.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 assists in 3 appearances, avg 84 min per game
Analysis
The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with the most likely halftime score pegged at 1-1, reflecting a balanced first half. England's attacking trio of Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon, and Bukayo Saka have been in strong form, likely to exploit Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities. Jude Bellingham's creative prowess, leading England with four assists this season, will be key to unlocking Croatia's defence. Croatia's Ivan Perišić poses a threat from set-pieces, but England's solid form and goal-scoring consistency give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.England have won 3 of 4 matches in this competition, scoring 14 goals and conceding 3.
- 2.Croatia have lost 3 of 4 matches, conceding 14 goals and scoring only 4.
- 3.England have won 3 of 5 meetings against Croatia, with 2 draws and no losses.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.4 total goals (8 for England, 4 for Croatia).
- 5.Top predicted scorelines favour multiple goals, with 3-2 being the most probable final result.
- 6.Jude Bellingham leads England with 4 assists this season, key to their attacking play.
- 7.Harry Kane has scored 7 goals in his last 10 games, making him a major threat.
- 8.Ivan Perišić provides Croatia with set-piece creativity and 2 assists this season.
Prediction
The forecast is a home win for England with a close 3-2 scoreline. The game should be competitive, with England edging ahead after a balanced first half. Expect goals from Kane and company, with Croatia fighting hard but ultimately falling short.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — England
Away — Croatia
The verdict
While the prediction leans towards an England victory, the low confidence in this call suggests the match could be finely balanced. Fans should brace for an exciting contest with plenty of attacking intent from both sides.
Prediction generated 6 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Rogers
Assist: Bellingham
Sučić
Penalty confirmed
Smolčić
Yellow Card
Kane
Penalty
Sučić
Matanović
Smolčić
Mišić
Rice
Gordon
Alexander-Arnold
Kovačić
Match Statistics
England
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 3L. HallD
- 4D. RiceM
- 5D. BurnD
- 6J. QuansahD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 17M. RogersM
Substitutes
- 7M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 12B. WhiteD
- 13J. TraffordG
- 14J. HillD
- 15J. BranthwaiteD
- 16J. BellinghamM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 19D. Calvert-LewinF
- 20R. NgumohaF
- 21E. EzeM
- 22Joshua KingM
- 23J. SteeleG
Croatia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 3L. VuškovićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 13N. VlašićM
- 14I. SmolčićD
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 17P. SučićM
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 22J. MišićM
Substitutes
- 5D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 6N. GalešićD
- 7L. MajerM
- 9D. BeljoF
- 10L. ModrićM
- 11A. BudimirF
- 12I. PandurG
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 18Š. HrgovićD
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 21M. ŠotičekM
- 23D. KotarskiG
England
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rogers | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| J. Bellingham | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| D. Burn | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| D. Rice | M | 77 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| J. Pickford | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Quansah | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| A. Gordon | M | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| B. White | D | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ngumoha | F | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Garner | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Steele | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hill | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Trafford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joshua King | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Branthwaite | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Croatia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sučić | M | 70 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| M. Baturina | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6/7 |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Vušković | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Kovačić | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Budimir | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pasalic | F | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| I. Matanović | F | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Mišić | M | 76 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 20 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Smolčić | D | 76 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Galešić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kotarski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ćaleta-Car | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Majer | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pandur | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Beljo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Šotiček | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Š. Hrgović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win England vs Croatia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted England to win against Croatia.
- What score did Fipster predict for England vs Croatia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of England 3–2 Croatia.
- What were the win probabilities for England vs Croatia?
- Fipster's model gave England a 35% chance of winning, Croatia a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.