England vs Croatia
England's Kane and Bellingham seal 4-2 win
A thrilling six-goal encounter sees England edge Croatia with Kane's brace and Bellingham's quick response after the break.
England took an early lead through a Kane penalty before Croatia fought back with goals from Baturina and Musa to keep the contest lively. However, Kane's second just before half-time and Bellingham's immediate reply after the break swung momentum firmly back to England, who sealed the win with a late Rashford strike. The 4-2 result matched Fipster's prediction of an England victory, though the scoreline was more emphatic than expected.
Analysis
The FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage kicks off with England facing Croatia in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have shown solid form in qualifying and bring a wealth of experience and talent to the pitch.
England boasts 16 prior World Cup appearances and were champions in 1966, while Croatia has appeared 6 times with their best finish as runners-up in 2018. Neither team is hosting this tournament, which is jointly held by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. England topped their qualifying group with 24 points and a +22 goal difference, while Croatia also led their group with 22 points and the same goal difference.
Squad calibre slightly favours England, with 25 of their 26 players competing in top-five European leagues, including standout striker Harry Kane of Bayern München. Croatia fields a strong side as well, with 17 players in top leagues and veterans like Luka Modrić of AC Milan. Both teams have similar expected goals and neutral recent form trends, suggesting a balanced match. England's midfield creativity and attacking pace may provide the edge needed to secure a narrow win.
Prediction
We predict England to win 2-1, with Harry Kane likely to be a key contributor. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards reflecting typical group stage discipline. Confidence in this outcome is moderate at 22%, acknowledging the close quality between the sides.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
England's attacking trio vs Croatia's defense
Kane and Rashford's pace and finishing challenge Croatia's backline led by Ćaleta-Car and Gvardiol.
Midfield creativity favors England
Bellingham and Saka provide higher key pass rates than Croatia's midfield, increasing scoring chances.
Modrić's experience vs England's youth
Modrić's veteran presence may stabilize Croatia's midfield despite England's energetic young players.
Historical tight matches
Previous England-Croatia games have been close, supporting a narrow 2-1 predicted scoreline.
No major injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring tactical plans can be executed as intended.
Key Takeaways
This opening fixture sets the tone for a thrilling group stage. England's moderate calibre advantage and strong qualifying performance give them the slight upper hand, but Croatia's resilience and experience mean nothing will come easy. Expect a tight, entertaining match with England just edging it.
- England has 16 prior World Cup appearances and won the tournament in 1966.
- Croatia has 6 prior World Cup appearances with their best finish as runners-up in 2018.
- Neither England nor Croatia is hosting the 2026 World Cup; hosts are USA, Canada, and Mexico.
- England topped their qualifying group with 24 points and a +22 goal difference.
- Croatia also topped their qualifying group with 22 points and a +22 goal difference.
- England's squad features 25 of 26 players in top-five European leagues.
- Croatia's squad includes 17 players in top-five European leagues.
- Both teams have similar expected goals (1.3 each) and neutral recent form trends.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — England
Away — Croatia
Player Contributions
H. Kane (England): Likely to lead England's attack and score key goals.
J. Bellingham (England): Provides creativity and assists, enhancing England's scoring chances.
L. Modrić (Croatia): Controls midfield tempo and creates scoring opportunities.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Kane
Penalty
Baturina
Assist: Sučić
Kane
Assist: Rice
Musa
Assist: Perišić
Bellingham
Assist: Anderson
Modrić
Musa
Musa
Vušković
Vušković
Gordon
Rice
Madueke
Madueke
Gordon
Baturina
Pasalic
Pasalic
Bellingham
Bellingham
Rashford
Assist: Saka
Stones
Match Statistics
England
Starting XI
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2E. KonsaD
- 3N. O'ReillyD
- 4D. RiceM
- 5J. StonesD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 18A. GordonM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 24R. JamesD
Substitutes
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 7B. SakaF
- 11M. RashfordF
- 13D. HendersonG
- 14J. HendersonM
- 15D. BurnD
- 16K. MainooM
- 17M. RogersM
- 19O. WatkinsF
- 21E. EzeM
- 22I. ToneyF
- 23J. TraffordG
- 25D. SpenceD
- 26J. QuansahD
Croatia
Starting XI
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićM
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 10L. ModrićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 16M. BaturinaF
- 17P. SučićF
- 22L. VuškovićD
- 26P. MusaF
Substitutes
- 3M. PongračićD
- 5D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 7N. MoroM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 9A. KramarićF
- 11A. BudimirF
- 12I. PandurG
- 13N. VlašićM
- 18K. JakićM
- 19T. FrukM
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 21L. SučićM
- 23D. KotarskiG
- 24Marco PasalicF
- 25M. ErlićD
England
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane(C) | F | 90 | 8.5 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Noni Madueke | M | 72 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 80 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Declan Rice | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| John Stones | D | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Gordon | M | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Reece James | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dean Henderson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kobbie Mainoo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Trafford | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jarell Quansah | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Henderson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Toney | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eberechi Eze | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dan Burn | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bukayo Saka | F | 18 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 18 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Marcus Rashford | F | 18 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Djed Spence | D | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Croatia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Baturina | F | 78 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Petar Musa | F | 66 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dominik Livaković | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josip Stanišić | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Petar Sučić | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Luka Vušković | D | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luka Modrić(C) | M | 58 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dominik Kotarski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marin Pongračić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Fruk | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duje Ćaleta-Car | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luka Sučić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivor Pandur | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kristijan Jakić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Erlić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ante Budimir | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | F | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Andrej Kramarić | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Matanović | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Vlašić | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |