Coventry vs Newcastle
Match recap
Coventry beat Newcastle 4–1 in their Premier League fixture. Rudoni, Cherif, Simms, and Mfuni scored for Coventry; Botman replied for Newcastle. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.47 for Coventry versus 1.84 for Newcastle. Coventry sit 15th in the Premier League table while Newcastle are 11th.
Outcome probability
Coventry face a stern test against Newcastle, who currently sit comfortably higher in the league standings. With Coventry yet to find their footing this season, the Magpies look poised to continue their solid form.
Match factors
Coventry's attack weakened by key absences
Coventry missing key attackers including T. Awoniyi (red card) and H. Wright (muscle injury), limiting scoring options
Newcastle's midfield creativity stands out
H. Barnes and Y. Wissa show strong assist and goal involvement, boosting Newcastle's attacking threat
Defensive solidity from Newcastle's L. Hall and S. Botman
Hall's high tackle rate and Botman's passing accuracy provide Newcastle defensive stability against Coventry's weak attack
Coventry's rare scoring threat from J. Dasilva
Dasilva scored in recent away win, offering Coventry a key chance to break Newcastle's defense
The context
Coventry are languishing at the bottom of the table with no points from four games, while Newcastle have accumulated eight points from five matches, placing them in the top half. This gulf in form sets the stage for a challenging fixture for Coventry, who are also missing key attacking players due to suspension and injury.
Key insights
- H
H. Barnes
Newcastle
Creative midfielder with strong recent form, providing 2 assists in last home game and key passes.
Premier League 26/272 assists in last home game, high recent ratings up to 8.18
- Y
Y. Wissa
Newcastle
Key attacking midfielder contributing goals and assists, with solid tackling and passing stats.
Premier League 26/27Scored and assisted recently, rating up to 7.97
- L
L. Hall
Newcastle
Defensive rock averaging 3 tackles per game, well above league average, adding attacking threat with goal and assist.
Premier League 26/273 tackles per game, high duel win rate 54-56%, recent goal and assist
- J
J. Dasilva
Coventry
Coventry's main goal threat, scored winning goal in recent away match, consistent starter with solid stats.
Premier League 26/27Scored winning goal recently, consistent starter
- T
T. Awoniyi
Coventry
Currently suspended due to red card, limiting Coventry's attacking options and goal threat.
Premier League 26/27No goals this season, red card suspension
Analysis
Newcastle's midfield creativity, led by H. Barnes and Y. Wissa, provides a clear attacking threat, supported by the defensive solidity of L. Hall. Coventry's rare goal threat comes from J. Dasilva, but the absence of key attackers like T. Awoniyi due to suspension hampers their chances. The Magpies' superior goal difference and points per game underline their advantage in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Coventry are 20th with 0 points from 4 games (W0 D0 L4).
- 2.Newcastle are 8th with 8 points from 5 games (W2 D2 L1).
- 3.Newcastle have a significantly better goal difference (+0) than Coventry (-10).
- 4.Newcastle average 1.60 points per game, Coventry 0.00.
- 5.Coventry's T. Awoniyi is suspended, weakening their attack.
- 6.Newcastle's H. Barnes and Y. Wissa have recent goal and assist contributions.
- 7.L. Hall averages 3 tackles per game, well above league average.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 2-1 victory for Newcastle, with the away side expected to lead 1-0 at halftime. The match is likely to see a moderate level of discipline, with around three cards expected. Coventry may find the net once, but Newcastle's overall quality should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coventry
Away — Newcastle
No standout best passers flagged for Newcastle
The verdict
While Coventry will be eager to claim their first points of the season, Newcastle's current form and squad strength make them the favourites to take all three points. Expect a competitive match with Newcastle edging it in the end.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 18:24 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rudoni
Penalty
Cherif
Murphy
Miley
Willock
Mason-Clark
van Ewijk
Yellow Card
Botman
Assist: Nico González
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
Cherif
Wissa
Joelinton
Yellow Card
Simms
Assist: Thomas-Asante
Rudoni
Grimes
Mfuni
Assist: Dasilva
Touré
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 10 |  Leeds | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Coventry | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 |  Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Coventry
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2E. PinnockD
- 3J. DasilvaD
- 4B. ThomasD
- 5J. RudoniM
- 6M. GrimesM
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 10E. Mason-ClarkM
- 19C. RushworthG
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
- 27M. van EwijkD
- 49S. CherifF
Substitutes
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 9E. SimmsF
- 12S. MfuniD
- 16F. OnyekaM
- 22J. LatibeaudiereD
- 25D. BentleyG
- 29V. TorpM
- 34Y. GbohoF
- 38G. HamerM
Newcastle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3L. HallD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 9Y. WissaM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 12M. ThiawD
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoF
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 23J. MurphyM
- 28J. WillockM
- 67L. MileyD
Substitutes
- 1N. PopeG
- 5F. SchärD
- 7JoelintonM
- 8A. BambaM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 33D. BurnD
- 37A. DedićD
Coventry
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mfuni | D | 7 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| S. Cherif | F | 78 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| E. Simms | F | 12 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Dasilva | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Thomas-Asante | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| J. Rudoni | M | 83 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| C. Rushworth | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Thomas | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| V. Torp | M | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. van Ewijk | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Grimes | M | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Sakamoto | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Mason-Clark | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| E. Pinnock | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Onyeka | M | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Latibeaudiere | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bentley | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Hamer | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Gboho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Newcastle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico González | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 6 | — |
| S. Botman | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| H. Barnes | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| J. Willock | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | 5 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. Touré | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| W. Osula | F | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Murphy | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| L. Miley | D | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Thiaw | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Y. Wissa | M | 78 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| L. Horníček | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dedić | D | 31 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joelinton | M | 31 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| D. Burn | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Pope | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Schär | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Steur | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bamba | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coventry vs Newcastle?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Newcastle to win against Coventry.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coventry vs Newcastle?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coventry 1–2 Newcastle.
- What were the win probabilities for Coventry vs Newcastle?
- Fipster's model gave Coventry a 19% chance of winning, Newcastle a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.