Coritiba vs Vitoria
Match recap
Coritiba beat Vitoria 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Rocha and Tinga scored for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.16 for Coritiba versus 0.52 for Vitoria. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Vitoria are 15th.
Outcome probability
Coritiba and Vitoria face off in what promises to be a tightly contested regular season match. Both sides have shown similar form in the league, making this a fixture where fine margins could decide the outcome.
Match factors
Coritiba's creative midfield edge
Josué's high assist tally and passing volume gives Coritiba a creative advantage to unlock Vitoria's defense
Pedro Rocha's scoring consistency
Pedro Rocha's 8 goals and strong home form make him a reliable scoring option for Coritiba
Rene's recent scoring form for Vitoria
Rene has scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, showing good form despite away challenges
Defensive solidity from Tiago Cóser and Jacy
Tiago Cóser and Jacy provide defensive stability and occasional goal threat, crucial against Vitoria's attackers
Full squad availability boosts Coritiba's chances
No confirmed injuries for Coritiba ensures all key attackers and playmakers are available for the match
The context
This match is part of the regular season's 33rd round, with Coritiba sitting 12th and Vitoria close behind in 14th place. Their league positions and points tally reflect a competitive balance, setting the stage for an intriguing encounter.
Key insights
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 9 assists and high passing volume give Coritiba a creative edge to unlock Vitoria's defence.
Serie A 26/279 assists in 27 appearances, 74.1 avg mins/game
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha's 8 goals and strong home scoring rate make him a reliable attacking threat for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 29 appearances, 76.3 avg mins/game
Rene
Vitoria
Rene has scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches, showing good recent form despite away challenges.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 24 appearances, 70 avg mins/game
- T
Tiago Cóser
Coritiba
Tiago Cóser provides defensive stability and contributes goals, crucial against Vitoria's attackers.
Serie A 26/273 goals this season
Analysis
Historically, Coritiba and Vitoria have shared the spoils fairly evenly, with 4 wins for Coritiba and 5 for Vitoria in 13 meetings, alongside 4 draws. Their head-to-head matches average just over two goals, aligning well with the predicted 2-1 scoreline. Coritiba's creative edge comes from Josué, who leads with 9 assists this season and is pivotal in unlocking defences. Pedro Rocha, with 8 goals and strong home form, is a key threat up front. Vitoria's Rene, their top scorer with 10 goals, has been in good recent form and will look to challenge Coritiba's defence, which is bolstered by Tiago Cóser and Jacy providing solidity and occasional goal threat.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba and Vitoria have met 13 times: Coritiba 4 wins, Vitoria 5 wins, 4 draws.
- 2.Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.1, matching the predicted 2-1 scoreline.
- 3.Coritiba are 12th in the league with 39 points from 31 games.
- 4.Vitoria are 14th with 38 points from 32 games.
- 5.Josué leads Coritiba with 9 assists this season, a key creative force.
- 6.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 7.Rene is Vitoria's top scorer with 10 goals and good recent form.
- 8.Defenders Tiago Cóser and Jacy provide Coritiba with defensive stability and set-piece threat.
Prediction
The forecast sees a balanced first half ending 1-1, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture. However, Coritiba are expected to pull ahead in the second half to claim a 2-1 victory. The prediction is a cautious call given the close league standings and historical balance, but the home side's attacking creativity and defensive stability give them the slight edge.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Vitoria
The verdict
Expect a keenly fought match with moments of quality from key players on both sides. Coritiba's ability to convert chances at home and Vitoria's resilience will make this a compelling contest, but ultimately the home side should just about have enough to take the points.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 00:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rocha
Brítez
Yellow Card
Brítez
Zé Vitor
Caíque
Tinga
Assist: Cóser
Rocha
Gómez
Fonseca
Melo
Martínez
Rene
Josué
Tissi
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 10JosuéF
- 19S. GómezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 14F. BustosD
- 17B. OcampoF
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 25RichardM
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 50TissiM
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BrítezD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 25CacáD
- 26EdenilsonD
- 33ErickM
- 59GeanD
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 3DarlanD
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 23FabrícioF
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 69WandersonD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Cóser | D | 93 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tinga | D | 93 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Breno Lopes | M | 93 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Josué | F | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1/1 |
| Nicolas Fonseca | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Sebastián Gómez | M | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Jacy Maranhão(C) | D | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | M | 80 | 6.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0/3 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 85 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Paulo Roberto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Richard | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabricio Bustos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brian Ocampo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Gelado | D | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Gonçalves Tissi | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gean de Jesus Soares | D | 93 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo(C) | G | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 68 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Tarzia | M | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Edenilson | D | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Emanuel Brítez | D | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Renê Sousa | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cacá | D | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Wanderson Estrela Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Pochettino | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darlan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 6 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Laquintana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rúben Ramos Ismael | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 2–1 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 65% chance of winning, Vitoria a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 65% confidence — a medium-confidence call.