Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama
Match recap
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Saldivia scored for Coritiba; Tchê Tchê replied for Vasco DA Gama. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.49 for Coritiba versus 0.49 for Vasco DA Gama. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Vasco DA Gama are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Coritiba win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama face off in a Brazilian league regular season match where Coritiba's superior form and attacking prowess suggest a strong home win.
Match factors
Coritiba's attacking edge through Pedro Rocha
Pedro Rocha's consistent scoring and strong home form give Coritiba a key attacking advantage.
Josué's playmaking boosts Coritiba's offense
Josué leads with 10 assists, well above league average, enhancing Coritiba's chance creation.
Vasco's Gómez shows recent scoring form if fit
Gómez has scored 1 goal in last 5 games, adding threat if starting as expected.
Defensive scoring threat from Coritiba's Moledo
Moledo's 3 goals in 8 games provide Coritiba with set-piece scoring options.
Vasco's defensive stability relies on Renan and Paulo Henrique
Renan and Paulo Henrique show strong defensive stats and assist contributions, key to Vasco's defense.
The context
Both teams are mid-table in the league, with Coritiba sitting 10th and Vasco DA Gama 14th. Their head-to-head record is fairly balanced, but Coritiba's recent home performances and league position give them the edge.
Key insights
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha’s consistent scoring and strong home form give Coritiba a key attacking advantage.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 apps, strong home scoring record
Josué
Coritiba
Josué’s 10 assists make him a vital playmaker, boosting Coritiba’s chance creation.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, high assist rate
- C
Carlos Gómez Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
Gómez is Vasco’s top scorer with 5 goals, providing a threat if fit to start.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 apps
- R
Rodrigo Moledo
Coritiba
Moledo’s 3 goals in 8 games add a valuable set-piece scoring option for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 8 apps
Analysis
Coritiba's attack, led by Pedro Rocha who boasts 8 goals this season and strong home form, is a key factor. Playmaker Josué's 10 assists enhance their offensive threat. Vasco's top scorer Gómez Hinestroza offers some resistance, but Vasco's defensive solidity may be tested. The predicted 3-1 scoreline aligns with Coritiba's ability to capitalize on set-pieces and home advantage.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba are ranked 10th with 39 points from 30 games.
- 2.Vasco DA Gama are ranked 14th with 35 points from 29 games.
- 3.In 17 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba have won 4, Vasco DA Gama 6, with 7 draws.
- 4.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, including strong home form.
- 5.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, a key playmaker role.
- 6.Coritiba's Rodrigo Moledo has 3 goals in 8 appearances, adding set-piece threat.
- 7.Predicted total cards in the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
Expect Coritiba to take an early lead and maintain control, finishing with a 3-1 victory. The halftime score of 1-0 reflects their ability to start strong, while a total of four cards suggests a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
Coritiba's combination of attacking talent and home advantage should see them comfortably outscore Vasco DA Gama. Fans can anticipate a lively match with Coritiba asserting dominance to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tchê Tchê
Assist: Paulo Henrique
Willian Oliveira
David
Moura
Lavega
Yellow Card
Lavega
Vini Paulista
Yellow Card
Nuno Moreira
Tinga
Melo
Gómez
Hinestroza
Piton
Paulo Henrique
Yellow Card
Saldivia (OG)
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2TingaD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 19S. GómezM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 55JacyD
Substitutes
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 13KeillerG
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 87Gabriel LeiteG
- 88Fernando SobralM
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 18M. HinestrozaM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 20BrennerF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 64WalaceD
- 82AvellarD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 98JPM
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josué | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Tinga | D | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Leite | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vini Paulista | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tchê Tchê | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Marino Hinestroza | M | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Hugo Moura | M | 62 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 4/4 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| David | F | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Johan Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor Silva | F | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Cauan Barros | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Avellar | D | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Brenner | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–1 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 85% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.