Coritiba vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Sao Paulo beat Coritiba 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Cauly scored for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.85 for Coritiba versus 1.32 for Sao Paulo. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Coritiba win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
This Brazilian league fixture sees Coritiba and Sao Paulo face off in what promises to be an engaging contest. Both teams have had their moments this season, but the home side's recent form and attacking threats suggest they will come out on top.
Match factors
Coritiba's Pedro Rocha in strong home scoring form
Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season with a strong home average of 0.6 goals per game, making him a key threat against Sao Paulo's defense.
Sao Paulo's Jonathan Calleri leading attack
Calleri leads Sao Paulo with 10 goals and has scored 3 in the last 5 matches, posing a significant scoring threat despite playing away.
Sao Paulo missing key attacker Luciano
Luciano, with 9 goals this season, is confirmed out, weakening Sao Paulo's attacking options and reducing their scoring potential.
Josué's assist prowess boosts Coritiba's attack
Josué has 10 assists this season, well above league average, and is a primary creative force for Coritiba, enhancing their goal-scoring chances.
The context
Coritiba currently sit 9th in the league with 38 points from 29 games, while Sao Paulo are close behind in 11th with 36 points. The two sides have met 20 times previously, with Sao Paulo holding a slight edge in wins. However, recent performances and home advantage could tip the scales in Coritiba's favour.
Key insights
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season with a strong home average of 0.6 goals per game, making him a key threat against Sao Paulo's defence.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
J. Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri leads Sao Paulo with 10 goals and has scored 3 in the last 5 matches, posing a significant scoring threat despite playing away.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 0.40 goals/game
Josué
Coritiba
Josué has 10 assists this season, well above league average, and is a primary creative force for Coritiba, enhancing their goal-scoring chances.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 appearances, 0.38 assists/game
Analysis
Coritiba's Pedro Rocha is in fine form at home, boasting 8 goals this season and a strong recent scoring run. Midfielder Josué's 10 assists highlight his key creative role. Sao Paulo's attack relies heavily on Jonathan Calleri, who has netted 10 goals this season, but the absence of key attacker Luciano weakens their options. The predicted scoreline of 3-1 aligns with Coritiba's attacking strengths and Sao Paulo's defensive vulnerabilities.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba are 9th in the league with 38 points from 29 games (W10 D8 L11).
- 2.Sao Paulo are 11th with 36 points from 29 games (W10 D6 L13).
- 3.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, with a strong home scoring record.
- 4.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, a key creative force.
- 5.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Sao Paulo's key attacker Luciano is out, impacting their offensive threat.
- 7.Coritiba and Sao Paulo have met 20 times: Coritiba 3 wins, Sao Paulo 8, 9 draws.
- 8.The predicted match will feature around 4 total cards.
Prediction
We expect Coritiba to take an early lead, possibly going 2-0 up by halftime, before sealing a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The match should feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
Coritiba's home advantage and attacking form make them the favourites to secure a 3-1 win over Sao Paulo. Their key players are poised to make the difference, while Sao Paulo will need to overcome the absence of their star attacker to challenge effectively.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:53 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tinga
Wallisson
Yellow Card
Ferreira
Yellow Card
Ferreira
Penalty confirmed
Luccas
Yellow Card
Luccas
Cauly
Penalty
Franco
Yellow Card
Ferreira
Tapia
Josué
Wallisson
Vini Paulista
Maia
Cauly
Tolói
Yellow Card
Breno Lopes
Yellow Card
Lavega
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 8WallissonM
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 36Vini PaulistaM
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 14Enzo VágnerF
- 16João VitorD
- 17Jean GabrielM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 39GustavoM
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 88Fernando SobralM
Sao Paulo
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 11FerreiraF
- 14G. TapiaF
- 18WendellM
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 42MaikM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 80CaulyF
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 13E. Díaz
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 30Felipe NegrucciM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32N. FerraresiD
- 33LuanM
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7/10 |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 56 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 69 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Vini Paulista | M | 69 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Breno Lopes | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/5 |
| Maicon(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Almeida | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Gabriel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 34 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Tolói | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Alan Franco | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | F | 83 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3/4 |
| Ferreirinha | F | 64 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rafael(C) | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Maik | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Djhordney Ferreira | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Wendell | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Cédric Soares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Negrucci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Calleri | F | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Moura | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–1 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 95% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.