Coritiba vs Gremio
Gremio snatch late win at Coritiba
M. Braithwaite's stoppage-time strike seals a narrow victory.
In a match that defied expectations, Gremio secured a 1-0 victory over Coritiba thanks to M. Braithwaite's decisive goal in the second minute of stoppage time. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, it was Gremio who emerged victorious in a tight contest. The late winner ensured all three points for the visitors in Serie A.
Outcome probability
Coritiba and Gremio face off in a regular season fixture where the home side is expected to take control early and maintain their advantage throughout the match.
Match factors
Coritiba's attacking midfield creativity
Josué's 10 assists and set-piece duties give Coritiba a creative edge
Pedro Rocha's goal-scoring form
Pedro Rocha has 8 goals this season with strong home form, boosting Coritiba's attack
Gremio's defensive weakness without Wallace
Wallace's suspension weakens Gremio's defense, increasing Coritiba's scoring chances
Coritiba's home scoring streak
Coritiba has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals
Carlos Vinícius as focal point for Gremio
Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals, key to their attack despite recent dip
The context
This match is part of the 32nd round of the regular season. Coritiba currently sit 12th in the league with 39 points, while Gremio are 18th with 31 points. Their head-to-head record is almost even, with Coritiba winning 7 and Gremio 8 of their 19 encounters, alongside 4 draws. Historically, their matches average 2.4 goals, setting the stage for an engaging contest.
Key insights
Josué
Coritiba
Leads the team with 10 assists, providing excellent creativity and set-piece delivery.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 2137 mins
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Strong home scoring form with 8 goals this season, boosting Coritiba's attack.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 30 appearances, 2251 mins
- W
Wallace
Gremio
Suspended for this match, weakening Gremio's defensive line significantly.
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Top scorer with 10 goals, key to Gremio's attack despite recent dip in form.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 29 appearances, 2261 mins
Analysis
Coritiba's attacking midfield creativity, led by Josué with 10 assists, gives them a clear edge in creating chances. Pedro Rocha's strong home scoring form, with 8 goals this season, further boosts their attacking threat. Gremio will rely on Carlos Vinícius, their top scorer with 10 goals, but the absence of key defender Wallace due to suspension weakens their defensive stability. Coritiba's recent home scoring streak supports the prediction of them netting three goals, while Gremio may manage a consolation.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba rank 12th with 39 points from 31 games (W10 D9 L12).
- 2.Gremio rank 18th with 31 points from 30 games (W7 D10 L13).
- 3.In 19 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba have won 7, Gremio 8, with 4 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.4 total goals (23 for Coritiba, 22 for Gremio).
- 5.Coritiba have scored in their last 5 home games.
- 6.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 8.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals.
Prediction
The most likely scenario is Coritiba taking a 1-0 lead by halftime and extending it to a 3-1 victory by full time. The match is expected to feature around four goals and a moderate number of cards, with Coritiba's home advantage and attacking form tipping the scales decisively in their favour.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Gremio
The verdict
All signs point to Coritiba capitalising on their home advantage and Gremio's defensive issues to secure a comfortable win. Fans can expect a lively match with Coritiba asserting control early and maintaining it to the final whistle.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Diego Caito
Tinga
Yellow Card
Pavón
Balbuena
Rocha
Tinga
Gómez
Lavega
Fonseca
Noriega
Marlon
Braithwaite
Assist: Amuzu
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 18Paulo RobertoF
- 19S. GómezM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 55JacyD
Substitutes
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 13KeillerG
- 14F. BustosD
- 17B. OcampoF
- 25RichardM
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 50TissiM
- 77Breno LopesF
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Gremio
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónF
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonM
- 27Diego CaitoM
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 11TetêF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 18João PedroD
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Luccas | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0/1 |
| Jacy | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fonseca | M | 77 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Rocha | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| F. Bustos | D | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tissi | M | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Paulo Roberto | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| S. Gómez | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| B. Ocampo | F | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Lavega | M | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Breno Lopes | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Richard | M | 21 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 69 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Braithwaite | F | 8 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Wallace | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| C. Pavón | F | 59 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0/3 |
| João Pedro | D | 84 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Amuzu | F | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Marlon | M | 82 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| F. Krovinović | M | 31 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Balbuena | D | 59 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 8 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Caito | M | 6 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Villasanti | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Enamorado | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Noriega | M | 82 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Zortea | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–1 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.