Coritiba vs Fluminense
Match recap
Coritiba and Fluminense drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Cóser scored for Coritiba; John Kennedy replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.68 for Coritiba versus 1.37 for Fluminense. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Coritiba win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
The upcoming regular season fixture between Coritiba and Fluminense promises an exciting encounter, with both sides boasting attacking talents and competitive league positions. Fans can expect a match filled with goals and tactical battles.
Match factors
Coritiba's Josué as creative fulcrum
Josué's 10 assists and high passing volume make him pivotal in unlocking Fluminense's defense
Pedro Rocha's consistent scoring form
Pedro Rocha has 8 goals this season with strong home scoring, key to Coritiba's attack
Fluminense's John Kennedy as main scoring threat
John Kennedy leads Fluminense with 9 goals in 18 games, focal point in attack
Fluminense's Savarino in hot scoring streak
Jefferson Savarino scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Fluminense's attack
Coritiba's defensive leaders to challenge Fluminense attack
Jacy and Sebastian Gomez provide strong defensive coverage, crucial against Fluminense forwards
The context
Coritiba currently sit 10th in the league with 39 points from 30 games, while Fluminense hold a stronger 4th place with 51 points. Historically, Fluminense have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, but recent form and home advantage could tilt the scales.
Key insights
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 10 assists and high passing volume make him pivotal in unlocking Fluminense's defense.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 appearances, 0.38 assists/game
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha has 8 goals this season with strong home scoring, key to Coritiba's attack.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
John Kennedy
Fluminense
John Kennedy leads Fluminense with 9 goals in 18 games, focal point in attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 18 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
- J
Jefferson Savarino Quintero
Fluminense
Jefferson Savarino scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Fluminense's attack.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 appearances, 0.27 goals/game
Analysis
Coritiba's Josué stands out as a creative force with 10 assists this season, crucial for unlocking Fluminense's defence. Pedro Rocha's consistent scoring, especially at home, adds firepower to Coritiba's attack. Fluminense rely heavily on John Kennedy, their top scorer with 9 goals, and Jefferson Savarino's recent hot streak boosts their threat. Defensively, Coritiba's Jacy and Sebastian Gomez provide solid coverage to counter Fluminense's forwards. The predicted 3-2 scoreline reflects a tight contest with both teams pushing forward.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba are 10th in the league with 39 points from 30 games.
- 2.Fluminense are 4th with 51 points from 30 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense have won 8, Coritiba 4, with 8 draws.
- 4.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 5.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, key in creating chances.
- 6.John Kennedy is Fluminense's top scorer with 9 goals in 18 games.
- 7.Jefferson Savarino has scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches.
- 8.Coritiba's defensive duo Jacy and Sebastian Gomez provide strong coverage.
Prediction
We foresee Coritiba clinching a 3-2 win, with a halftime lead of 2-1. The home side's attacking edge and key players' form should be enough to overcome Fluminense's challenge in this regular season fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
Expect a thrilling match where Coritiba's home advantage and attacking prowess narrowly outmatch Fluminense's efforts. A 3-2 scoreline suggests plenty of action and drama for the fans.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Felipe Jonatan
João Pedro Chermont
Jacy
Martinelli
Hércules
PH Ganso
Cóser
Assist: Josué
Lucas Ronier
Castillo
Serna
Gómez
Yellow Card
John Kennedy
Assist: Ignacio
Gómez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3MaiconD
- 6Felipe JonatanM
- 10JosuéF
- 11Lucas RonierF
- 19S. GómezM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 36Vini PaulistaM
- 44João Pedro ChermontM
- 55JacyD
Substitutes
- 2TingaD
- 8WallissonM
- 13KeillerG
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 33D. AlvesF
- 39GustavoM
- 77Breno LopesF
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 88Fernando SobralM
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 4IgnacioD
- 7Y. SoteldoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 19R. CastilloF
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 9John KennedyF
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 14G. CanoF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 25AlissonM
- 27MarceloG
- 29J. MillánD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josué | F | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Vini Paulista | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 57 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Felipe Jonatan | M | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Ronier | F | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Alves França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 33 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Breno Lopes | F | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeferson Soteldo | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6/8 |
| Kevin Serna | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ganso | M | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ignácio | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Guga | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fábio(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 79 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Millán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 11 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Alisson | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Otávio | M | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Germán Cano | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–2 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.