Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro snatch narrow win at Coritiba
Matheus Pereira's strike secures a slender victory in a tight contest.
In a closely fought Serie A encounter, Cruzeiro edged out Coritiba 1-0 thanks to Matheus Pereira's decisive goal after the break. The match was tighter than expected, with neither side able to find the net until the 66th minute. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a 2-2 draw, proving the visitors' defence just strong enough to keep a clean sheet and claim all three points.
Analysis
Coritiba and Cruzeiro face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture in the 2026 league season. Both sides are closely matched in the standings, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
This match is part of the regular season, round 21, where Coritiba sits 10th with 26 points and Cruzeiro just above in 9th with 27 points. Their head-to-head history is evenly poised, with 8 wins each and 3 draws from 19 meetings, highlighting a well-balanced rivalry.
The teams have averaged 2.3 goals per match in their encounters, suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. Coritiba's midfield creativity, led by Josué and Breno Lopes, will test Cruzeiro's defence, which has shown vulnerabilities away from home. Meanwhile, Cruzeiro's Matheus Pereira, their top scorer with 7 goals, continues to be a key threat, supported by consistent scoring form on the road. Both sides have players who can influence the game significantly, making a draw a likely outcome.
Prediction
The prediction is a 2-2 draw, reflecting the balanced nature of this fixture. With a confidence level of 35%, this scoreline aligns with the teams' recent form and historical encounters. Expect a competitive match with goals from both sides and a fair share of disciplinary action, with an estimated four cards.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Coritiba's midfield creativity vs Cruzeiro's defense
Coritiba's Josué and Breno Lopes provide creative threat exploiting Cruzeiro's defensive vulnerabilities
Matheus Pereira's scoring form for Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro's scoring with 7 goals, key to their attacking output
Cruzeiro's consistent scoring streak away
Cruzeiro has scored in all last 5 away games, showing strong offensive momentum
Absence of Coritiba's Fabinho weakens attack
Fabinho is confirmed out, reducing Coritiba's attacking options and goal threat
Cruzeiro's defensive struggles at away matches
Cruzeiro concedes 1.9 goals per away game, vulnerable to Coritiba's home attack
Key Takeaways
In summary, Coritiba and Cruzeiro are set to share the spoils in a match that promises excitement and goals. Fans can look forward to a closely fought contest where midfield creativity and attacking prowess take centre stage.
- Coritiba and Cruzeiro have each won 8 of their 19 head-to-head matches, with 3 draws.
- Their encounters average 2.3 goals per game, indicating attacking openness.
- Coritiba is 10th in the league with 26 points from 19 games (7W, 5D, 7L).
- Cruzeiro is 9th with 27 points from 20 games (7W, 6D, 7L).
- Coritiba's Josué leads with 5 assists this season, a key creative force.
- Matheus Pereira is Cruzeiro's top scorer with 7 goals this season.
- Cruzeiro has scored in each of their last 5 away matches, showing strong offensive form.
- Coritiba's Fabinho is out, slightly weakening their attacking options.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Cruzeiro
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Santos
Yellow Card
Santos
Felipe Morais
Rocha
Melo
Matheus Pereira
Assist: Gerson
Gerson
Arroyo
Breno Lopes
Gómez
Kaio Jorge
Rojas
Matheus Henrique
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 9 |  Atletico-MG | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 19S. GómezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 17B. OcampoF
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 20KenoF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 50TissiM
- 88Fernando SobralM
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 8GersonM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 12WilliamD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 34JonathanD
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 5Zé LucasM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 11MarquinhosF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 40Rhuan GabrielM
- 43João MarceloD
- 51Vitor LamounierG
- 57R. LelisF
- 70KenjiF
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Ronier | M | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Tinga | D | 97 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 1/1 |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Breno Lopes | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/6 |
| Thiago Santos | M | 54 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Paulo Roberto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Gonçalves Tissi | M | 43 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brian Ocampo | F | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Pereira | M | 97 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 3 | — |
| Gerson | M | 69 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| William Furtado | D | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Otávio Costa | G | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Felipe Morais | M | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Silva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Lucas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Lamounier | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rhuan Gabriel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Lelis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |