Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc
Match recap
Coritiba beat Chapecoense-sc 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Cóser and Rocha scored for Coritiba; Túlio replied for Chapecoense-sc. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.27 for Coritiba versus 0.26 for Chapecoense-sc. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Chapecoense-sc are 20th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Coritiba win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc face off in the 22nd round of the regular season, with Coritiba looking to extend their solid home performances against a struggling Chapecoense-sc side.
Match factors
Coritiba's attacking midfield strength
Josué's 10 assists and Pedro Rocha's 8 goals provide a potent attacking combination at home
Pedro Rocha's home scoring form
Pedro Rocha averages 0.33 goals per home game, above league attacker average
Coritiba's recent scoring streak at home
Coritiba has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or outs, so all key scorers and assisters are available
The context
Coritiba currently sit 10th in the league with 39 points from 30 games, showing a clear advantage over Chapecoense-sc, who are 20th with 18 points from 29 games. The head-to-head record between these two is evenly matched with five wins apiece and three draws in 13 meetings.
Key insights
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha averages 0.33 goals per home game, making him a key threat in this fixture.
Serie A 26/278 goals, 28 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Josué
Coritiba
Josué’s 10 assists this season highlight his crucial role as Coritiba’s main playmaker.
Serie A 26/2710 assists, 26 apps, 0.38 assists/game
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho is Chapecoense-sc’s top scorer with 5 goals, providing their main offensive outlet.
Serie A 26/275 goals, 27 apps, 0.19 goals/game
Analysis
Coritiba's attacking midfield, led by Josué with 10 assists, and striker Pedro Rocha, who boasts 8 goals including a strong home scoring rate, provide a potent threat. Chapecoense-sc's top scorer Marcinho has 5 goals but faces a tough task against Coritiba's solid defence. Coritiba's goal difference and points-per-game advantage underline their superiority this season.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba are 10th in the league with 39 points from 30 games (W10 D9 L11).
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 29 games (W3 D9 L17).
- 3.Coritiba have a significantly better goal difference (+21) than Chapecoense-sc.
- 4.Head-to-head record: 5 wins each and 3 draws in 13 meetings.
- 5.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season with strong home form (0.33 goals/game).
- 6.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, a key playmaker.
- 7.Chapecoense-sc's top scorer Marcinho has 5 goals this season.
- 8.Coritiba average 1.30 points per game compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.62.
Prediction
We expect Coritiba to take the lead by halftime with a 1-0 scoreline and extend their advantage to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The match is likely to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
Coritiba's combination of home form, attacking talent, and league standing makes them the clear favourites to secure a comfortable win over Chapecoense-sc in this regular season clash.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cóser
Melo
Yellow Card
Josué
Max
Goal Disallowed - offside
Melo
Jacy
Ocampo
Rubens
Yellow Card
Marcinho
Rubens
Fernando
Camilo
Rocha
Assist: Lavega
Rocha
Túlio
Assist: Ramírez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 19S. GómezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 13KeillerG
- 17B. OcampoF
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 20KenoF
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 50TissiM
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 12FernandoD
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 22MaxM
- 26EvertonD
- 27CamiloM
- 70RubensM
- 98AndersonG
Substitutes
- 9TúlioF
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 29F. RossiF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 39RodrigoF
- 50KassioF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 94K. RamírezF
- 97ÊnioM
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Cóser | D | 95 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Breno Lopes | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 84 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Thiago Santos | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Josué | M | 37 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Jacy Maranhão(C) | D | 48 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Sebastian Gomez | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Keno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Gonçalves Tissi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Roberto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | 47 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Brian Ocampo | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vini Paulista | F | 47 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Maicon | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Augusto | F | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Bruno Matias | M | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Camilo | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Fernando | D | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Eduardo Doma(C) | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Max | M | 38 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcinho | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Anderson | G | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kassio | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Antunes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Balieiro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Thyere | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Endrio | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ênio | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Ramírez | F | 33 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira | F | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–1 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 85% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.