Coritiba vs Botafogo
Match recap
Coritiba and Botafogo drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Marçal scored for Coritiba; Santos replied for Botafogo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.13 for Coritiba versus 0.93 for Botafogo. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Botafogo are 11th.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Coritiba and Botafogo face off in what promises to be an entertaining encounter. Both sides are close in the league standings, but recent form and attacking firepower suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Coritiba's attacking midfield strength
Josué's 9 assists and creative playmaking give Coritiba a strong chance to unlock Botafogo's defense
Danilo Santos' goal-scoring form
Danilo Santos leads Botafogo with 9 goals, posing a significant threat despite Botafogo's away struggles
Coritiba's home scoring streak
Coritiba has scored in 4 consecutive home games, supporting the predicted 4 goals
Absence of Tinga and Lucas Ronier weakens Coritiba's creativity
Confirmed outs Tinga and Lucas Ronier reduce Coritiba's assist options, increasing reliance on Josué
Pedro Rocha's home scoring consistency
Pedro Rocha's 8 goals and strong home form make him a key scoring candidate for Coritiba
The context
Coritiba sit 9th with 38 points from 28 games, just ahead of Botafogo who are 13th with 35 points from 29 matches. Historically, Botafogo have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, winning 10 to Coritiba's 4, with 6 draws. Matches between these two typically yield around 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
Key insights
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 9 assists and creative playmaking give Coritiba a strong chance to unlock Botafogo's defense.
Serie A 26/279 assists in 24 appearances, 0.38 avg per game
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos leads Botafogo with 9 goals, posing a significant threat despite Botafogo's away struggles.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 21 appearances, 0.43 avg per game
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha's 8 goals and strong home form make him a key scoring candidate for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 26 appearances, 0.31 avg per game
Analysis
Coritiba's attacking midfield, led by Josué with 9 assists this season, provides a creative edge likely to unlock Botafogo's defence. Pedro Rocha, with 8 goals and strong home form, is poised to be a key threat. Botafogo's Danilo Santos, their top scorer with 9 goals, remains a danger but may struggle against Coritiba's defensive stability. The absence of Tinga and Lucas Ronier reduces Coritiba's creative options but increases reliance on Josué's playmaking. Coritiba's recent home scoring streak supports the prediction of multiple goals.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba rank 9th with 38 points from 28 games (W10 D8 L10).
- 2.Botafogo rank 13th with 35 points from 29 games (W9 D8 L12).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo lead with 10 wins to Coritiba's 4, with 6 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 total goals.
- 5.Coritiba have scored in 4 consecutive home games.
- 6.Josué leads Coritiba with 9 assists this season.
- 7.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 8.Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals.
Prediction
We expect Coritiba to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted 2-0 halftime score, before extending their advantage to a 4-1 fulltime victory. The match should see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled affair. Coritiba's home advantage and attacking depth make them the likely winners.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Botafogo
The verdict
In summary, Coritiba's blend of creativity and goal-scoring form, combined with Botafogo's struggles away from home, points to a comfortable home win. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a clear winner by the final whistle.
Prediction generated 9 Oct 2026, 02:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Marçal (OG)
Goal cancelled
Santos
Assist: Medina
Bustos
Yellow Card
Gómez
Yellow Card
Allan
Yellow Card
Santos
Yellow Card
Bustos
Santos
Lavega
Felipe Jonatan
Marçal
Yellow Card
Cóser
Yellow Card
Ziyech
Allan
Medina
Cabral
Josué
Matheus Martins
Gelado
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 14F. BustosD
- 18Paulo RobertoF
- 19S. GómezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 55JacyD
Substitutes
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 17B. OcampoF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 77Breno LopesF
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 13Alex TellesD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 21MarçalD
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 25AllanM
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 17WarlesonG
- 29PaulinhoD
- 34G. JustinoD
- 37K. BarriaF
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 90DaniloF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Luccas | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Thiago Santos | M | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | 6 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Breno Lopes | F | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Lavega | M | 64 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| S. Gómez | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jacy | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fonseca | M | 34 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Paulo Roberto | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Pedro Rocha | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tinga | D | 34 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Gelado | D | 26 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Bustos | D | 56 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gustavo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Moledo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Ocampo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Santos | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| C. Medina | M | 77 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| N. Ferraresi | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Batista | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júnior Santos | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Allan | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Ziyech | M | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Matheus Martins | M | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| Paulinho | D | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Domingos Andrade | M | 17 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Marçal | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 13 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Barria | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Justino | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ponte | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warleson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 4–1 Botafogo.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 95% chance of winning, Botafogo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.