Coritiba vs Atletico-MG
Match recap
Coritiba beat Atletico-MG 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Breno Lopes and Rocha scored for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.04 for Coritiba versus 1.15 for Atletico-MG. Coritiba sit 12th in the Serie A table while Atletico-MG are 6th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Coritiba win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Coritiba and Atletico-MG face off in a Brazilian league regular season match where Coritiba's home advantage and attacking strength could prove decisive.
Match factors
Coritiba's attacking midfield strength
Josué's 10 assists and key playmaking role give Coritiba a creative edge in attack
Breno Lopes' scoring form at home
Breno Lopes has 8 goals this season with strong home scoring, boosting Coritiba's goal threat
Atletico-MG's consistent scoring streak
Atletico-MG has scored in last 5 matches, showing offensive momentum despite predicted loss
Renan Lodi's dual role in defense and attack
Renan Lodi's 3 assists and defensive solidity provide Atletico-MG balance on the left flank
Pedro Rocha's strong record vs Atletico-MG
Pedro Rocha scored 8 goals this season, including key goals against Atletico-MG, boosting confidence
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 Brazilian league regular season, round 12. Coritiba currently sit 10th with 39 points from 30 games, while Atletico-MG are 7th with 47 points from the same number of matches. Historically, Atletico-MG have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form and home advantage could shift the balance.
Key insights
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 10 assists and key playmaking role give Coritiba a creative edge in attack.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 appearances, 1963 mins, 0.38 assists/game
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
Breno Lopes has 8 goals this season with strong home scoring, boosting Coritiba's goal threat.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 25 appearances, 1644 mins, 0.32 goals/game
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Pedro Rocha scored 8 goals this season, including key goals against Atletico-MG, boosting confidence.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 2082 mins, 0.29 goals/game
Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG
Renan Lodi's 3 assists and defensive solidity provide Atletico-MG balance on the left flank.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 25 appearances, 2108 mins, 0.12 assists/game
Analysis
Coritiba's attacking midfield, led by Josué with 10 assists, provides a creative edge that has been instrumental in their recent performances. Breno Lopes, the top scorer with 8 goals, has been particularly effective at home, averaging 0.32 goals per game. Pedro Rocha also adds firepower with 8 goals this season, including key strikes against Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG, despite their consistent scoring streak in the last five matches, may find it challenging to contain Coritiba's offensive threats. Renan Lodi offers balance on the left flank with his defensive solidity and 3 assists, but it might not be enough to prevent a home win.
Key facts
- 1.Coritiba are 10th in the league with 39 points from 30 games.
- 2.Atletico-MG are 7th with 47 points from 30 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG have won 12, Coritiba 6, with 2 draws.
- 4.Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals this season.
- 5.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, providing key creativity.
- 6.Pedro Rocha has scored 8 goals this season, including important goals against Atletico-MG.
- 7.Renan Lodi has contributed 3 assists and provides defensive stability for Atletico-MG.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Coritiba home win with a final score of 3-1. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, reflecting Coritiba's ability to start strong and maintain control. The match is also likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Coritiba
Away — Atletico-MG
The verdict
In summary, Coritiba's home form and attacking midfield creativity should see them through to a 3-1 victory over Atletico-MG. While Atletico-MG have their strengths, the home side's momentum and key players like Breno Lopes and Josué are expected to make the difference.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Breno Lopes
Melo
Gómez
Yellow Card
Josué
Rocha
Breno Lopes
Lyanco
Yellow Card
Natanael
Maycon
Hulk
Reinier
Cuello
Vini Paulista
Rocha
Santos
Yellow Card
Renato Marques
Red Card
Renan Lodi
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 19S. GómezM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 36Vini PaulistaM
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 13KeillerG
- 14Enzo VágnerF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 33D. AlvesF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 88Fernando SobralM
Atletico-MG
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2NatanaelD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 7HulkF
- 8MayconM
- 13LyancoD
- 16Renan LodiD
- 19ReinierF
- 21A. FrancoM
- 22EversonG
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
Substitutes
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 5AlexsanderM
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 9M. CassierraF
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 11BernardM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 17Igor GomesM
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 92DuduF
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rangel | G | 95 | 9.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 86 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Tinga | D | 95 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Breno Lopes | M | 58 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Vini Paulista | M | 86 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Maicon | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Josué | M | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Enzo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alves França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 37 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 37 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycon | M | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Alan Franco | M | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reinier | F | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1/2 |
| Renan Lodi | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Victor Hugo | M | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/6 |
| Lyanco | D | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Everson | G | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hulk(C) | F | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Ruan | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Natanael | D | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Tomás Cuello | M | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3/7 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Igor Gomes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Alonso | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 29 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Cassierra | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mamady Cissé | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Bernard | M | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Coritiba to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Coritiba 3–1 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Coritiba a 75% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.