Corinthians vs Vitoria
Corinthians hold Vitoria to draw
A penalty rescue keeps Corinthians level in a tight Serie A contest.
Vitoria took the lead just after the first half through Rene's goal, but Corinthians fought back after the break with Yuri Alberto converting a penalty to secure a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win for Vitoria, as both sides shared the spoils in a closely contested match.
Outcome probability
This upcoming fixture between Corinthians and Vitoria promises a closely fought encounter as both sides look to improve their league standings. With Corinthians sitting 16th and Vitoria 12th, the match could be pivotal for momentum in the regular season.
Match factors
Rene's prolific scoring form
Rene leads with 9 goals this season and 4 in last 5 matches, a key factor in Vitoria's attack.
Matheuzinho's creative influence
Matheuzinho's 4 assists and 5 goals this season highlight his role as a key playmaker and set-piece taker.
Rodrigo Garro's leadership and creativity
Garro's 6 assists and captaincy provide Vitoria with creative stability despite recent scoring drought.
Defensive goal threat from Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu
Both defenders have 3 goals this season, adding unexpected scoring options for Corinthians.
The context
Corinthians have a historical edge in their head-to-head record against Vitoria, winning 9 of their 19 meetings, while Vitoria have managed only 2 wins with 8 draws. Past encounters have averaged just over two goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest. Currently, Corinthians hold 32 points from 30 games, whereas Vitoria have 36 points from the same number of matches.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Rene's prolific scoring form with 9 goals this season and 4 in the last 5 matches makes him a key attacking threat for Vitoria.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 appearances, 0.39 goals/game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Matheuzinho's creative influence is evident with 4 assists and 5 goal contributions this season, making him vital in playmaking and set-pieces.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 27 appearances, 0.15 assists/game
Rodrigo Garro
Vitoria
As captain and creative hub, Garro's 6 assists provide stability and leadership despite a recent scoring drought.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 appearances, 0.22 assists/game
- G
Gustavo Henrique
Corinthians
Defender Gustavo Henrique adds an unexpected attacking threat with 3 goals this season, complementing his defensive duties.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 25 appearances
Analysis
Vitoria's attack is spearheaded by Rene, who boasts 9 goals this season and has been in fine form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches. Matheuzinho's creativity, with 4 assists and 5 goal contributions, adds a vital spark to their midfield. Corinthians, meanwhile, rely on defensive contributions from Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu, each with 3 goals this season, to bolster their chances. The narrow margin in league standings and the close head-to-head record suggest a competitive match, but Vitoria's recent attacking form could tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Corinthians have won 9 of 19 head-to-head matches against Vitoria.
- 2.Vitoria have won only 2 of their 19 meetings with Corinthians.
- 3.Past matches between these teams average 2.1 goals per game.
- 4.Corinthians are 16th in the league with 32 points from 30 games.
- 5.Vitoria are 12th with 36 points from 30 games.
- 6.Rene leads Vitoria with 9 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 matches.
- 7.Matheuzinho has 4 assists and 5 goal contributions this season for Vitoria.
- 8.Defenders Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu have each scored 3 goals for Corinthians this season.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Vitoria with a 2-1 scoreline. While the probabilities are finely balanced, Vitoria's attacking threats and creative midfield presence give them a slight edge to claim all three points in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Corinthians
Away — Vitoria
The verdict
Expect a tight and tactical game with moments of attacking flair. Vitoria's key players could make the difference, but Corinthians will not make it easy. A 2-1 victory for the visitors seems the most likely outcome in this regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:19 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rene
Rene
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Yuri Alberto
Penalty
Vitinho
Lingard
Tarzia
Andre
Matheuzinho
Rene
Penalty cancelled
Yuri Alberto
Caíque
Erick
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 11VitinhoM
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 49AndreM
- 77J. LingardM
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 20P. MilansD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 29AllanM
- 35CharlesM
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BrítezD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 15WalaceM
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Angileri | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 93 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Breno | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Lingard | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3/4 |
| R. Garro | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Andre | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Vitinho | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Kaio César | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Charles | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Carrillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Inácio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Camargo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Milans | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rene | F | 85 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| E. Brítez | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zé Vitor | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Fabrício | F | 5 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheuzinho | M | 80 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Tarzia | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Erick | M | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Mateusinho | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Marinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Laquintana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rúben Ismael | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pochettino | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Corinthians vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Corinthians vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Corinthians 1–2 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Corinthians vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Corinthians a 32% chance of winning, Vitoria a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.