Corinthians vs Palmeiras
Match recap
Corinthians and Palmeiras drew 0–0 in their Serie A fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.55 for Corinthians versus 0.67 for Palmeiras. Corinthians sit 17th in the Serie A table while Palmeiras are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
0-1 Palmeiras win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
This clash between Corinthians and Palmeiras promises a tactical battle with Palmeiras expected to edge it by a single goal. Both sides have shown resilience, but Palmeiras' attacking edge could prove decisive.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking edge through J. López
J. López leads Palmeiras with 9 goals this season, providing a key scoring threat against Corinthians' defense
Corinthians' reliance on R. Garro for creativity
R. Garro is Corinthians' top assister with 6 assists, crucial for creating chances in attack
Andreas Pereira's consistent assist contributions
Andreas Pereira has 10 assists this season and regularly starts, boosting Palmeiras' chance creation
Defensive solidity from Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique offers defensive stability and goal threat with 3 goals, aiding Corinthians' defense
The context
In the regular season's 11th round, Palmeiras sit comfortably near the top of the table with 63 points from 30 games, while Corinthians find themselves lower down with 32 points. Historically, Palmeiras have a slight upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won 7 of the last 20 encounters compared to Corinthians' 5 wins.
Key insights
J. López
Palmeiras
J. López leads Palmeiras with 9 goals, providing a crucial scoring threat against Corinthians.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 27 appearances, 0.33 avg per game
R. Garro
Corinthians
R. Garro is Corinthians' key creative force with 6 assists, vital for chance creation.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 appearances, 0.22 avg per game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Andreas Pereira's 10 assists make him the main playmaker, boosting Palmeiras' attacking chances.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 29 appearances, 0.34 avg per game
- G
Gustavo Henrique
Corinthians
Gustavo Henrique provides defensive stability and occasional goal threat with 3 goals.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 27 appearances
Analysis
Palmeiras boast a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio this season, highlighting their consistent form. Their top scorer, J. López, has netted 9 goals, providing a key threat against Corinthians' defence. Meanwhile, Corinthians rely heavily on R. Garro for creativity, with 6 assists this season. Palmeiras' midfield maestro Andreas Pereira, with 10 assists, is likely to orchestrate chances and unlock the home side's defence. Defensive solidity from Gustavo Henrique offers Corinthians some resistance, but Palmeiras' attacking quality is expected to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras rank 2nd with 63 points from 30 games (W18 D9 L3).
- 2.Corinthians rank 16th with 32 points from 30 games (W8 D8 L14).
- 3.Palmeiras have a goal difference advantage of +37 this season.
- 4.Palmeiras average 2.10 points per game; Corinthians average 1.07.
- 5.In 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras have 7 wins, Corinthians 5, with 8 draws.
- 6.J. López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 7.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists.
- 8.R. Garro is Corinthians' top assister with 6 assists.
Prediction
The prediction is a narrow 1-0 win for Palmeiras, with the goal likely coming in the first half. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards, reflecting a tense but controlled encounter. Palmeiras' ability to break the deadlock early should see them hold on for the victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Corinthians
Away — Palmeiras
The verdict
Expect a closely fought contest where Palmeiras' attacking prowess and consistency give them the edge. Corinthians will put up a fight, but the visitors' quality in key areas should secure them the three points.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:22 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Card upgrade
Andre
Red Card
Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Card upgrade
Matheuzinho
Red Card
Khellven
Giay
Maurício
Garro
Freitas
Yellow Card
Kayke
Freitas
Raniele
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | +40 | 73 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | +34 | 70 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +6 | 57 |
| 16 |  Mirassol | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 37 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 36 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | -5 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Corinthians
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroF
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 31KaykeM
- 49AndreM
Substitutes
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 29AllanM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 52Z. LabyadF
- 54Luiz GustavoM
- 55I. MachadoD
- 61DieguinhoM
- 77J. LingardM
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 12KhellvenD
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 19R. SosaM
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 43BenedettiD
- 45Erick MachadoM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/6 |
| Kayke Ferrari | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Garro(C) | F | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Raniele | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Breno Bidon | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Matheuzinho | D | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| André Luiz | M | 35 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zakaria Labyad | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Machado | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bahia | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Lingard | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Carrillo | M | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khellven | D | 71 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 83 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| Mauricio | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| José López | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Ramón Sosa | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Belé | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Fillipi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Benedetti | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Corinthians 0–1 Palmeiras.
- What were the win probabilities for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's model gave Corinthians a 19% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.