Corinthians vs Flamengo
Match recap
Corinthians and Flamengo drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Yuri Alberto scored for Corinthians; Paquetá replied for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.31 for Corinthians versus 0.36 for Flamengo. Corinthians sit 17th in the Serie A table while Flamengo are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 Flamengo win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
This upcoming fixture between Corinthians and Flamengo promises an intriguing battle, but the scales tip heavily in favour of Flamengo given their current league standing and attacking talent.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield strength
Flamengo's midfield trio including Samuel Lino and Lucas Paquetá offers creative and scoring threat against Corinthians' defense
Pedro's prolific scoring form
Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 goals this season, significantly above league average for attackers
Jorge Carrascal's creative influence
Carrascal has 8 assists this season and strong recent form, key to Flamengo's attacking success
Full squad availability boosts Flamengo
No confirmed injuries for Flamengo ensures full strength, aiding their predicted away win
Corinthians' defensive goal threat
Defenders Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu contribute goals, adding set-piece threat despite defensive struggles
The context
Flamengo sit comfortably at the top of the league with 64 points from 30 games, while Corinthians languish in 16th place with just 32 points. Historically, Flamengo have dominated this matchup, winning 11 of the 20 meetings against Corinthians, who have managed only 4 wins and 5 draws.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 goals this season, making him a constant threat to Corinthians' defence.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 30 appearances, 0.53 avg per game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino’s 9 goals and 7 assists highlight his dual threat as a scorer and creator in Flamengo’s midfield.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 29 appearances
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Jorge Carrascal’s 8 assists and recent form make him the creative hub of Flamengo’s attack.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 24 appearances, 0.33 avg per game
Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
Lucas Paquetá’s creativity and scoring ability add another layer of threat against Corinthians.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 0.29 avg per game
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfield, featuring Samuel Lino and Lucas Paquetá, poses a significant threat to Corinthians' defence. Pedro, Flamengo's top scorer with 16 goals this season, is in fine form and expected to lead the charge. Meanwhile, Corinthians' defensive vulnerabilities and lower league position suggest they will struggle to contain Flamengo's creative and clinical attack. The predicted scoreline of 3-1 reflects Flamengo's ability to break down their opponents and convert chances efficiently.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 64 points from 30 games.
- 2.Corinthians are 16th with 32 points from 30 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo have won 11, Corinthians 4, with 5 draws.
- 4.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 16 goals this season.
- 5.Samuel Lino has contributed 9 goals and 7 assists this season.
- 6.Jorge Carrascal leads Flamengo with 8 assists.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 0-2 in favour of Flamengo.
- 8.The match is expected to feature around 4 total cards.
Prediction
We anticipate Flamengo to take an early lead and maintain control throughout, finishing with a 3-1 victory. The halftime scoreline is expected to be 0-2, setting the tone for a dominant away performance. Expect a competitive but disciplined match with around four cards shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Corinthians
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's superior form, attacking talent, and league position make them the clear favourites to claim all three points. Corinthians will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to disrupt Flamengo's rhythm if they hope to avoid defeat.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Alex Sandro
Yellow Card
Paquetá
Assist: Pedro
Yuri Alberto
Assist: Bidu
Depay
Jorginho
Yellow Card
Alex Sandro
Evertton Araújo
Red Card
VAR Review
de Arrascaeta
Lino
Carrillo
Andre
Breno
Pedro
Raniele
Yellow Card
Vitão
Yellow Card
Garro
Yellow Card
Vitão
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Corinthians
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 10M. DepayF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 49AndreM
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 8R. GarroM
- 11VitinhoF
- 20P. MilansD
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 26F. AngileriD
- 31KaykeF
- 35CharlesM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 52Z. LabyadF
- 56Guilherme InácioF
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 13DaniloD
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 21JorginhoM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 44VitãoD
- 52Evertton AraújoM
Substitutes
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 11EvertonF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 42AndrewG
- 49DyogoG
- 64WallaceF
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Henrique(C) | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| André Carrillo | M | 64 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Breno Bidon | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3/4 |
| Memphis Depay | F | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| André Luiz | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Raniele | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zakaria Labyad | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Tchoca | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Garro | M | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Kayke Ferrari | F | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gui Negão | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Danilo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vitão | D | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Samuel Lino | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Pedro | F | 80 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta(C) | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 52 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Everton | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Corinthians vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Corinthians 1–3 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Corinthians a 2% chance of winning, Flamengo a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.