Corinthians vs Coritiba
Match recap
Coritiba beat Corinthians 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Jacy and Lucas Ronier scored for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.67 for Corinthians versus 0.56 for Coritiba. Corinthians sit 17th in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Corinthians win
Actual
0–2
Outcome probability
The upcoming fixture between Corinthians and Coritiba promises a competitive encounter as both sides look to improve their standings in the league. With Corinthians aiming to bounce back and Coritiba seeking to maintain their upper hand, fans can expect a tactical battle with moments of attacking flair.
Match factors
Corinthians miss key attacker Rodrigo Garro
Rodrigo Garro, top assister and scorer, is confirmed out due to yellow card suspension, weakening attacking options
Corinthians' attacking midfield strength
Andre leads scoring for Corinthians from midfield, likely to exploit Coritiba's defense with support from Depay and Guilherme Inácio
Josué's creative influence for Coritiba
Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, providing key chances especially at home, posing a threat to Corinthians' defense
Corinthians' recent scoring streak at home
Corinthians have scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing offensive momentum despite defensive vulnerabilities
Coritiba's reliance on Pedro Rocha for goals
Pedro Rocha is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals and recent form suggests he will be focal point in attack
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 5 in the 2026 campaign. Corinthians currently sit 16th in the league with 32 points, while Coritiba hold a stronger position at 9th with 38 points. Historically, Corinthians have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning 12 out of 20 encounters, which adds an intriguing layer to this fixture.
Key insights

Andre
Corinthians
Leads Corinthians in goals this season with 4, key in attacking transitions to exploit Coritiba's defence.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 19 apps, 0.21 goals/game

Josué
Coritiba
Creative hub for Coritiba with 10 assists, providing key chances especially at home, posing a threat to Corinthians' defence.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, 0.38 assists/game

Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Top scorer for Coritiba with 8 goals, good recent scoring form, focal point in attack.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 apps, 0.29 goals/game

Gustavo Henrique
Corinthians
Important aerial threat on set pieces with 2 goals, strong recent home form.
Serie A 26/272 goals in 27 apps, 0.07 goals/game
Analysis
Corinthians have shown a decent scoring streak at home, finding the net in four of their last five home games, which bodes well for their attacking prospects. Key midfielder Andre leads their scoring charts with 4 goals this season and is expected to be pivotal in breaking down Coritiba's defence. However, Corinthians will miss the creative spark of Rodrigo Garro, who is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. On the other side, Coritiba rely heavily on Pedro Rocha, their top scorer with 8 goals, who has been in good recent form. Josué's creativity, leading Coritiba with 10 assists, will be crucial in crafting chances. The match is likely to be competitive, with both teams possessing attacking threats, but Corinthians' home momentum and historical edge could prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Corinthians have won 12 of 20 meetings against Coritiba.
- 2.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring.
- 3.Corinthians rank 16th with 32 points from 29 games.
- 4.Coritiba rank 9th with 38 points from 29 games.
- 5.Corinthians have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 6.Andre leads Corinthians with 4 goals this season.
- 7.Pedro Rocha is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals.
- 8.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists.
Prediction
We predict a hard-fought 2-1 victory for Corinthians. Their home form and attacking midfield strength should see them edge past Coritiba, despite the visitors' solid league position and key players. Expect a match with a moderate number of goals and a few cards, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Corinthians

Away — Coritiba
The verdict
In summary, Corinthians are poised to leverage their home advantage and attacking talents to secure a narrow win over Coritiba. While the visitors have their own threats, the balance of form and historical results suggest a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the home side. Fans should prepare for an engaging contest with moments of quality and tactical intrigue.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Jacy
Assist: Josué
Lucas Ronier
Assist: Josué
Guilherme Inácio
Breno
Allan
Garro
Jacy
Breno Lopes
Lucas Ronier
Yellow Card
Bidu
Depay
Souza
Yellow Card
Rocha
Carrillo
Yellow Card
João Pedro Chermont
Josué
Fabinho
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 | |
| 11 | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 | |
| 12 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 | |
| 13 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 | |
| 16 | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 | |
| 17 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 | |
| 18 | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Corinthians
4-1-3-2Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 10M. DepayF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 29AllanM
- 49AndreM
- 56Guilherme InácioF
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 11VitinhoF
- 14RanieleM
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 20P. MilansD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 35CharlesM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 52Z. LabyadF
- 61DieguinhoM
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3MaiconD
- 8WallissonM
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 19S. GómezM
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 13KeillerG
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 22Felipe GuimarãesD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 88Fernando SobralM
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 58 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Breno Bidon | M | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Rodrigo Garro | M | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gui Negão | F | 57 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Memphis Depay | F | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luiz | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Raniele | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Tchoca | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | 32 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/6 |
| André Carrillo | M | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Pedro Raul | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Zakaria Labyad | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josué | M | 89 | 8.2 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 69 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Breno Lopes | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Felipe Guimarães | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Corinthians vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Corinthians to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Corinthians vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Corinthians 2–1 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Corinthians vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Corinthians a 63% chance of winning, Coritiba a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 63% confidence — a medium-confidence call.





