Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City
Match recap
St. Louis City beat Colorado Rapids 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Jeong Sang-Bin scored for St. Louis City. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.33 for Colorado Rapids versus 1.94 for St. Louis City. Colorado Rapids sit 9th in the Major League Soccer table while St. Louis City are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 St. Louis City win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
This MLS regular season encounter sees Colorado Rapids face off against St. Louis City in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have shown moments of quality this season, but St. Louis City's superior league standing and goal difference suggest they hold the upper hand.
Match factors
Colorado Rapids’ Paxten Aaronson excels in creating chances
Aaronson leads Colorado Rapids with 8 assists and strong recent form, boosting team’s goal threat
St. Louis City’s consistent scoring streak
St. Louis City has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
Doubtful status of key midfielders may affect creativity
Colorado Rapids’ Youssef Maziz and Mamadou Billo Diop are doubtful, possibly limiting midfield creativity
The context
St. Louis City currently sit 2nd in the league with 47 points, while Colorado Rapids are 8th with 37 points. Their head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with Colorado winning 3 of 7 matches and St. Louis City winning 2, alongside 2 draws. The average goals per meeting stand at 2.0, indicating a modest scoring trend between these sides.
Key insights
Paxten Aaronson
Colorado Rapids
Leads Colorado Rapids with 8 assists and has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games, making him vital for creating chances.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists and 7 goals in 28 appearances this season
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Top scorer for St. Louis City with 9 goals, including 2 in the last 5 games, providing a consistent attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 28 appearances this season
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Colorado’s top scorer with 10 goals this season, a key focal point in attack likely to influence the match outcome.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 appearances this season
Analysis
St. Louis City have been consistent scorers, netting in their last five matches, which highlights their offensive momentum. Their goal difference of +12 dwarfs Colorado Rapids' neutral goal difference, reflecting a more potent attack and tighter defence. Colorado's Paxten Aaronson is a key creative force with 8 assists this season and recent scoring form, but the Rapids face a challenge with some midfield doubts potentially limiting their creativity. St. Louis City's Simon Becher leads their scoring charts with 9 goals, offering a physical presence that could trouble the Rapids' defence.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City rank 2nd in the league with 47 points; Colorado Rapids are 8th with 37 points.
- 2.Colorado Rapids have won 3 of 7 head-to-head matches; St. Louis City have won 2, with 2 draws.
- 3.St. Louis City have a goal difference of +12, significantly better than Colorado Rapids' 0.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.0 goals, with Colorado scoring 9 and St. Louis City 5 in total.
- 5.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form.
Prediction
Given the statistical edge and current form, St. Louis City are favoured to secure a 2-1 victory. Their ability to maintain scoring streaks and a stronger league position underpin this prediction, despite Colorado Rapids' home advantage and key players like Rafael Navarro posing threats.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Colorado Rapids
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with St. Louis City narrowly coming out on top. Colorado Rapids will fight hard, but the visitors' consistent scoring and superior league form should see them edge this one 2-1.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 09:49 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ojediran
Yellow Card
Jeong Sang-Bin
Assist: Becher
Navarro
Yellow Card
Jeong Sang-Bin
Holding
Red Card
Navarro
Yellow Card
Sealy
Yapi
McSorley
Yellow Card
Thompson
Wallem
Yellow Card
Becher
Wallem
Ojediran
Durkin
Yellow Card
Durkin
Yellow Card
Durkin
Red Card
Perez
Yellow Card
Orozco
Unknown
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
Match Statistics
Colorado Rapids
4-4-2Starting XI
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7D. SealyM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouM
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 11A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 20C. RonanM
- 24N. CobbD
- 26M. DiopF
- 47S. WathutaF
- 51Zackory CampagnoloG
- 99J. TravisD
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 14T. TotlandM
- 17M. HartelF
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 10E. LöwenM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 27F. FallD
- 28M. PerezM
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Herrington | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Navarro | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Paxten Aaronson | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/3 |
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgi Minoungou | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/7 |
| Dante Sealy | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Kosi Thompson | D | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Darren Yapi | F | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Rafael Navarro(C) | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Rob Holding | D | 50 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zackory Campagnolo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sydney Wathuta | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Billo Diop | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Cobb | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Manyoma | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keegan Rosenberry | D | 27 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jackson Travis | D | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Connor Ronan | M | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alex Harris | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 89 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jeong Sang-bin | F | 45 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Dante Polvara | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/6 |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Roman Bürki(C) | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Simon Becher | F | 76 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 87 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafael Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mykhi Joyner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fallou Fall | D | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduard Löwen | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Miguel Perez | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against Colorado Rapids.
- What score did Fipster predict for Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Colorado Rapids 1–2 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave Colorado Rapids a 2% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.