Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders
Sounders snatch late draw in six-goal thriller
Whittaker’s brace looked to seal it for Rapids before Seattle’s Joveljić and Clark fought back.
Colorado Rapids appeared to be cruising to victory with M. Whittaker netting twice and D. Phillip adding another, putting them ahead 3-1 after 76 minutes. However, Seattle Sounders refused to lie down, with D. Joveljić scoring twice to keep them in the game and C. Clark grabbing a dramatic stoppage-time equaliser. This 3-3 draw defied Fipster’s high-confidence prediction of a narrow Rapids win, turning what looked like a straightforward home victory into a thrilling shared spoils.
Outcome probability
As the MLS regular season approaches its final stages, Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders face off in a match that promises tight competition. Both teams are eager to improve their standings, but recent form and key player availability suggest a close contest with a slight edge to the Rapids.
Match factors
Colorado missing key defender R. Cannon
Reggie Cannon is out due to suspension, weakening Colorado's defense and set-piece threat
Rafael Navarro's home scoring form
Navarro scores 0.5 goals per game at home recently, a strong attacking edge for Colorado
Paxten Aaronson's creative influence
Aaronson leads Colorado with 5 assists and 5 goals, key to unlocking Seattle's defense
Seattle's top assister Albert Rusnák in doubt
Rusnák has 6 assists but is doubtful, capping his assist probability and impacting Seattle's creativity
Loïc Williams' defensive and passing strength
Williams' 91% passing accuracy and 61% duel win rate provide Colorado stability and build-up from defense
The context
Colorado Rapids currently sit 7th in the league with 35 points, comfortably ahead of Seattle Sounders who are 13th with 27 points. The Rapids boast a better goal difference (+1) compared to Seattle's -5, reflecting a more balanced performance across the season. This match is crucial for both sides as they aim to climb the table in the regular season's 26th round.
Key insights
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Navarro scores 0.5 goals per game at home recently, making him a potent attacking threat for Colorado.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 appearances, 0.45 goals/game
P. Aaronson
Colorado Rapids
Aaronson’s 5 goals and 5 assists this season highlight his key creative role in unlocking opposition defenses.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals and 5 assists in 24 appearances
Albert Rusnák
Seattle Sounders
Rusnák’s doubtful status with 6 assists this season may limit Seattle’s attacking creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 20 appearances, 0.30 assists/game
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Loïc Williams
Colorado Rapids
Williams’ 91% passing accuracy and 61% duel win rate provide defensive stability and effective build-up play.
Major League Soccer 26/2791% passing accuracy, 61% duel win rate
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Reggie Cannon
Colorado Rapids
Cannon’s suspension removes a key defensive and set-piece threat from Colorado’s lineup.
Major League Soccer 26/272 goals this season
Analysis
Colorado Rapids have a strong home record and a reliable attacking threat in Rafael Navarro, who has netted 10 goals this season, including a solid scoring rate at home. Paxten Aaronson's creativity further bolsters their chances. Seattle Sounders, meanwhile, face a challenge with their top assister Albert Rusnák doubtful, which could hamper their attacking fluidity. Defensive stability for Colorado is slightly compromised by the suspension of Reggie Cannon, but Loïc Williams' passing accuracy and duel success provide a reassuring backbone.
Key facts
- 1.Colorado Rapids are 7th in the league with 35 points, ahead of Seattle Sounders in 13th with 27 points.
- 2.Colorado Rapids have a better goal difference (+1) than Seattle Sounders (-5) this season.
- 3.Rafael Navarro is Colorado's top scorer with 10 goals, including strong home form.
- 4.Paxten Aaronson leads Colorado with 5 goals and 5 assists, key to their attacking play.
- 5.Seattle's top assister Albert Rusnák is doubtful, potentially limiting their creativity.
- 6.Reggie Cannon is suspended for Colorado, weakening their defense.
- 7.Loïc Williams provides defensive stability with 91% passing accuracy and 61% duel win rate.
- 8.The predicted total cards for the match is four, suggesting moderate discipline.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-0 win for Colorado Rapids, with the halftime score also predicted to be 1-0. The match is expected to be competitive but with limited goal-scoring opportunities, reflected in the modest total card count of four, indicating a moderately disciplined encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Colorado Rapids
Away — Seattle Sounders
The verdict
In summary, Colorado Rapids' superior league position, home advantage, and key player form make them favourites to claim a narrow victory. Seattle Sounders will need to overcome creative doubts and defensive challenges to avoid a defeat. Expect a tightly contested match decided by a single goal.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Whittaker
Assist: Aaronson
Kingston
Joveljić
Assist: Rusnák
Phillip
Hawkins
Dotson
Farhi
Phillip
Yellow Card
Tolo
Phillip
Frederick II
Whittaker
Assist: Aaronson
Joveljić
Aaronson
Morris
Clark
Assist: Rusnák
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | +33 | 50 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +13 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 36 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 35 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -3 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Colorado Rapids
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4R. CannonD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7M. WhittakerF
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9S. FarhiF
- 10P. AaronsonF
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 29M. NavarroD
- 32D. PhillipM
- 41N. DefreitasG
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 99J. TravisD
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11A. RusnákM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 16A. RoldanD
- 26A. ThomasG
- 31H. DotsonM
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
Substitutes
- 4R. SailorD
- 8C. ClarkM
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 24S. FreiG
- 25J. RagenD
- 35Antino LopezD
- 37S. BrunellM
- 90S. GomezM
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Whittaker | F | 94 | 9.6 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Paxten Aaronson | F | 84 | 8.2 | — | 2 | — | — | 7 | 1/2 |
| Wayne Frederick | M | 72 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Rob Holding(C) | D | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Donavan Phillip | M | 72 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Saied Abu Farchi | F | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Loïc Williams | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Reggie Cannon | D | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Miguel Navarro | D | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Keegan Rosenberry | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Beaudry | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Harris | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Travis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgi Minoungou | F | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Atencio | M | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darren Yapi | F | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Cobb | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Seattle Sounders
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejan Joveljić | F | 94 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Cristian Roldán(C) | M | 94 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Hassani Dotson | M | 60 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Albert Rusnák | M | 94 | 7.2 | — | 2 | — | — | 4 | — |
| Jordan Morris | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Stuart Hawkins | D | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Thomas | G | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Roldán | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nouhou Tolo | D | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peter Kingston | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Kalani Kossa-Rienzi | D | 94 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ryan Sailor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antino Lopez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Frei | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | 11 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastian Gomez | M | 49 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Paul Arriola | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Jackson Ragen | D | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Snyder Brunell | M | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Colorado Rapids to win against Seattle Sounders.
- What score did Fipster predict for Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Colorado Rapids 1–0 Seattle Sounders.
- What were the win probabilities for Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's model gave Colorado Rapids a 95% chance of winning, Seattle Sounders a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.