Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquakes snatch draw at Rapids
D. Phillip's opener cancelled out by D. Romney after the break.
Colorado Rapids took the lead through D. Phillip's first-half strike, but San Jose Earthquakes responded after the break with a goal from D. Romney to secure a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a home win, proving the Earthquakes more resilient than expected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent matches, making this fixture an intriguing prospect for fans and neutrals alike.
Match factors
Home team's attacking trio in strong form
Navarro and Aaronson lead home scoring and assisting, likely to drive offense
Away team's top scorer Judd is a consistent threat
Judd's 13 goals and recent form make him key to away scoring chances
Home team excels in home scoring rate
Colorado Rapids average 1.92 goals per home game, above league average
Key midfielders missing due to international duty
Both teams missing important midfielders (Frederick II and Bouda) affecting creativity
Both teams have positive scoring streaks
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes have scored in last 4-5 games, indicating attacking momentum
The context
Currently, Colorado Rapids sit 7th in the league with 36 points from 26 games, while San Jose Earthquakes hold 5th place with 42 points. Despite San Jose's superior goal difference, Colorado's strong home scoring rate and recent form suggest they are well placed to challenge their visitors.
Key insights
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Navarro's 9 goals this season and strong home scoring rate make him the key attacking threat for Colorado Rapids.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 20 appearances, 0.45 goals/game
P. Aaronson
Colorado Rapids
Aaronson's 6 goals and 5 assists, combined with recent form, provide Colorado with creative spark and goal threat.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals and 5 assists in 24 appearances
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd's 13 goals and consistent scoring form make him San Jose's main offensive weapon.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris leads San Jose with 7 assists, showing his importance in creating chances for the Earthquakes.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 17 appearances, 0.41 assists/game
Analysis
Colorado Rapids boast a potent attacking trio led by Rafael Navarro, who has netted 9 goals this season and thrives on home turf. Midfielder P. Aaronson complements the attack with 6 goals and 5 assists, contributing significantly to the team's offensive output. San Jose's Preston Judd remains a consistent threat with 13 goals, supported by N. Tsakiris, the team's top assister. Both sides have been scoring regularly in recent games, but Colorado's home scoring average of nearly 2 goals per game gives them a tactical edge. The absence of key midfielders due to international duty may impact creativity, but the Rapids' attacking momentum and home advantage are likely to be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Colorado Rapids are 7th in the league with 36 points from 26 games (W11 D3 L12).
- 2.San Jose Earthquakes are 5th with 42 points from 26 games (W12 D6 L8).
- 3.San Jose Earthquakes have a better goal difference by 7 goals compared to Colorado Rapids.
- 4.Colorado Rapids average 1.92 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 5.Rafael Navarro leads Colorado Rapids with 9 goals this season, strong home form included.
- 6.Preston Judd is San Jose's top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 7.P. Aaronson has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists for Colorado Rapids this season.
- 8.N. Tsakiris tops San Jose's assists chart with 7 this season.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Colorado Rapids with a 2-1 final scoreline. A 1-0 lead at halftime is expected, reflecting the team's ability to start strongly and maintain control. San Jose Earthquakes will pose challenges, but Colorado's attacking form and home scoring prowess should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Colorado Rapids
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
In summary, expect a competitive match with Colorado Rapids leveraging their home strengths to claim a narrow victory. Fans can look forward to an entertaining contest with goals from key players on both sides, but ultimately the Rapids should edge this one 2-1.
Prediction generated 27 Sep 2026, 04:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Phillip
Assist: Aaronson
Jasinski
Yellow Card
Williams
Yellow Card
Romney
Assist: Vieira
Costa
Werner
Phillip
Cannon
Marie
Jasinski
Atencio
Minoungou
Farhi
Leroux
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | +31 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | +7 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -7 | 36 |
Match Statistics
Colorado Rapids
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4R. CannonD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7M. WhittakerM
- 9S. FarhiF
- 10P. AaronsonF
- 12J. AtencioM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 29M. NavarroD
- 32D. PhillipF
- 41N. DefreitasG
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 11I. SadiqF
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 99J. TravisD
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2Starting XI
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 11T. WernerF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 19P. JuddF
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
Substitutes
- 2J. RickettsD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 28B. KikanovicF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Phillip | F | 59 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| P. Aaronson | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0/2 |
| M. Navarro | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| R. Holding | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Defreitas | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Sadiq | F | 7 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| W. Frederick II | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 3/3 |
| R. Cannon | D | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Loïc Williams | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Atencio | M | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Yapi | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Rosenberry | D | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ojediran | M | 7 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Minoungou | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Whittaker | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Farhi | F | 83 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| K. Thompson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Cobb | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Travis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Beaudry | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Edwards | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Vítor Costa | D | 59 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Bouda | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| P. Marie | D | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Ricketts | D | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Fernandez | M | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Judd | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| T. Werner | F | 59 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. Löwen | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 94 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Francesco Montali | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jovanović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Buck | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kikanovic | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Colorado Rapids to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Colorado Rapids 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Colorado Rapids a 85% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.