Colorado Rapids vs Houston Dynamo
Match recap
Colorado Rapids beat Houston Dynamo 6–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Thompson, Atencio, Thompson, Navarro, Andrade, and Navarro scored for Colorado Rapids; Ennali and Guilherme replied for Houston Dynamo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.72 for Colorado Rapids versus 2.61 for Houston Dynamo. Colorado Rapids sit 9th in the Major League Soccer table while Houston Dynamo are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Colorado Rapids win
Actual
6–2
Outcome probability
The Colorado Rapids and Houston Dynamo face off in this Regular Season - 7 fixture, promising a competitive encounter. Both teams have shown moments of quality, but the Rapids' home advantage and attacking form could prove decisive.
Match factors
Rapids' attacking trio in form
Navarro and Aaronson lead Rapids' attack with strong recent scoring and assist form, likely to exploit Dynamo's defense
Guilherme's dual threat for Dynamo
Guilherme leads Dynamo in goals and assists, providing both scoring and creative threat despite recent dip
Key Dynamo midfielder Ennali doubtful
Ennali's doubtful status may reduce Dynamo's midfield creativity and assist potential
Rapids strong home scoring rate
Colorado Rapids average 1.86 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted home win
Aaronson's recent scoring surge
Aaronson scored 3 goals in last 5 games, boosting Rapids' attacking momentum
The context
In their 20 head-to-head meetings, Colorado Rapids have a slight edge with 7 wins to Houston Dynamo's 6, alongside 7 draws. Currently, Houston sit 5th in the league with 45 points from 28 games, while Colorado are 8th with 37 points from the same number of matches. This sets the stage for a closely contested match.
Key insights
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Top scorer for Rapids with 10 goals, showing strong home scoring form and leadership as captain.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 appearances, 0.33 goals/game at home
Paxten Aaronson
Colorado Rapids
Creative midfielder with 7 goals and 8 assists, recently scoring 3 goals in last 5 games, boosting Rapids' attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 8 assists in 28 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Leading scorer and assister for Dynamo with 14 goals and 6 assists, providing a dual threat despite recent dip in form.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals and 6 assists in 27 appearances
- L
Lawrence Ennali
Houston Dynamo
Doubtful status may reduce Dynamo's midfield creativity and assist potential, impacting their attacking options.
Major League Soccer 26/271 goal in this fixture
Analysis
Colorado Rapids boast a strong home scoring rate, averaging 1.86 goals per home game, which is above the league average. Their attacking duo, Rafael Navarro and Paxten Aaronson, have been in fine form recently, with Navarro netting 10 goals this season and Aaronson contributing 7 goals and 8 assists. Meanwhile, Houston Dynamo's key player Guilherme leads their scoring charts with 14 goals but has seen a slight dip in recent form. The doubtful status of Houston's creative midfielder Lawrence Ennali could hamper their attacking fluidity, giving the Rapids a tactical edge.
Key facts
- 1.Colorado Rapids have won 7 of 20 head-to-head matches against Houston Dynamo.
- 2.Houston Dynamo currently sit 5th in the league with 45 points from 28 games.
- 3.Colorado Rapids are 8th in the league with 37 points from 28 games.
- 4.Rafael Navarro has scored 10 goals this season for Colorado Rapids.
- 5.Paxten Aaronson has contributed 7 goals and 8 assists this season.
- 6.Guilherme leads Houston Dynamo with 14 goals and 6 assists.
- 7.Colorado Rapids average 1.86 goals per home game, above league average.
- 8.Lawrence Ennali is doubtful for Houston Dynamo, potentially impacting their creativity.
Prediction
Given the Rapids' home scoring strength and the current form of their attacking players, a narrow 1-0 victory for Colorado Rapids is the most probable outcome. The match is expected to be tight, with the Rapids edging out the Dynamo by a single goal margin.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Colorado Rapids
Away — Houston Dynamo
The verdict
Expect a closely fought contest where Colorado Rapids' home advantage and attacking momentum should see them claim a slender 1-0 win over Houston Dynamo. Key players like Rafael Navarro and Paxten Aaronson will be crucial in breaking down the opposition's defence.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:17 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Thompson
Assist: Sealy
Atencio
Assist: Navarro
Thompson
Ojediran
Bouzat
Holmes
Yapi
Ennali
Assist: Guilherme
Sviatchenko
Thompson
Sealy
Navarro
Assist: Minoungou
Resch
Yellow Card
Ponce
Bogusz
Atencio
Yellow Card
Andrade (OG)
Navarro
Penalty
Guilherme
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
Match Statistics
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SteffenG
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7D. SealyM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 13W. Frederick IID
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 77D. YapiM
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 11A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 19I. MurphyD
- 24N. CobbD
- 26M. DiopF
- 27K. Stewart-BaynesF
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 93G. MinoungouF
Houston Dynamo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 10E. PonceF
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 1J. MaurerG
- 9O. LingrM
- 13S. VinesD
- 16H. HerreraM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 21F. NegriD
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 34A. ReschD
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosi Thompson | D | 72 | 9.2 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Josh Atencio | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Paxten Aaronson | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 56 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dante Sealy | M | 72 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Darren Yapi | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Wayne Frederick | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4/7 |
| Rob Holding | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Herrington | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zack Steffen(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ian Murphy | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Billo Diop | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Harris | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kimani Stewart-Baynes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgi Minoungou | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Alexis Manyoma | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Noah Cobb | D | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keegan Rosenberry | D | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7/11 |
| Lawrence Ennali | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/6 |
| Duane Holmes | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Erik Sviatchenko | D | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Bouzat | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mateusz Bogusz | F | 85 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 85 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antônio Carlos(C) | D | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 90 | 4.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jimmy Maurer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Vines | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Negri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blake Gillingham | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Markanich | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Agustin Resch | D | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Colorado Rapids vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Colorado Rapids to win against Houston Dynamo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Colorado Rapids vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Colorado Rapids 1–0 Houston Dynamo.
- What were the win probabilities for Colorado Rapids vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's model gave Colorado Rapids a 85% chance of winning, Houston Dynamo a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.