Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
Match recap
New York Red Bulls beat Chicago Fire 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Cuypers scored for Chicago Fire; Ruvalcaba, Cowell, and Choupo-Moting replied for New York Red Bulls. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.78 for Chicago Fire versus 1.49 for New York Red Bulls.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Chicago Fire win
Actual
1–3
Outcome probability
Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks poised to claim a slender victory. Both teams have shown competitive spirit in their encounters, but the Fire's attacking midfield strength and home scoring prowess give them the edge.
Match factors
Chicago Fire's attacking midfield strength
Maren Haile-Selassie and Philip Zinckernagel provide strong goal and assist threat from midfield, creating chances for Cuypers.
Potential impact of Lewandowski if fit
Lewandowski's 6 goals in 13 games make him a key threat; his doubtful status caps his scoring probability but his presence could shift dynamics.
Chicago Fire's superior home scoring form
Chicago Fire average 1.93 goals per home game, above league average, supporting their predicted 1-0 home win.
Haile-Selassie's recent scoring and assisting form
Haile-Selassie scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists in last 5 games, indicating strong current form.
New York Red Bulls' creative outlets
Cade Cowell and Ronald Donkor lead assists for Red Bulls, providing key creativity despite team's lower scoring rate.
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 13. Historically, Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls have been evenly matched with seven wins each and six draws in their 20 meetings. The average goals per match stand at 2.6, with New York Red Bulls scoring slightly more overall. Both teams have key offensive players who have found the net in this fixture, adding to the intrigue.
Key insights
Hugo Cuypers
Chicago Fire
League top scorer with 13 goals, strong home goal rate of 1.18 goals per game, and a key focal point in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 11 appearances, 1.18 goals/game
Maren Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
High goal and assist contribution from midfield with 10 goals and 6 assists, excellent recent form with multiple goals and assists.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances
Philip Frigast Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
Top assister for Chicago Fire with 8 assists, strong influence in home matches through key passes and creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 27 appearances, 0.30 assists/game
Robert Lewandowski
Chicago Fire
Doubtful for this match but a proven goal scorer with 6 goals in 13 appearances, his presence could shift dynamics if fit.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 13 appearances, 0.46 goals/game
Cade Cowell
New York Red Bulls
Leading assister for New York Red Bulls with 6 assists, providing key creativity despite the team's lower scoring rate.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 26 appearances, 0.23 assists/game
Analysis
Chicago Fire boast a superior home scoring record, averaging nearly two goals per home game, which supports their predicted narrow win. Their midfield duo, Maren Haile-Selassie and Philip Zinckernagel, provide a potent mix of goals and assists, creating ample chances for striker Hugo Cuypers, who leads the league with 13 goals this season. Meanwhile, New York Red Bulls rely on creative outlets like Cade Cowell and Ronald Donkor, but their scoring rate is less impressive. The doubtful status of Robert Lewandowski for Chicago Fire adds a slight uncertainty, but the home side's attacking depth remains formidable.
Key facts
- 1.Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls have each won 7 of their 20 meetings, with 6 draws.
- 2.Average goals per match between these teams is 2.6, with New York Red Bulls scoring slightly more overall.
- 3.Hugo Cuypers leads Chicago Fire with 13 goals this season, averaging 1.18 goals per home game.
- 4.Maren Haile-Selassie has scored 10 goals and provided 6 assists this season, showing strong recent form.
- 5.Philip Zinckernagel tops Chicago Fire's assists with 8 this season, influencing home matches significantly.
- 6.Chicago Fire average 1.93 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 7.New York Red Bulls' key creative players include Cade Cowell (6 assists) and Ronald Donkor (5 assists).
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-0 victory for Chicago Fire, reflecting their strong home form and attacking capabilities. While New York Red Bulls will pose challenges, the Fire's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity should see them through with a narrow margin.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chicago Fire
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In a closely contested match, Chicago Fire's home advantage and key players' form are expected to tip the scales in their favour. Fans can anticipate a tight game with the Fire edging out the Red Bulls by a single goal, continuing their solid run at home.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 09:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Voloder
Yellow Card
Ruvalcaba
Assist: Forsberg
Hall
Cowell
Assist: Donkor
Forsberg
Bamba
Cowell
Dos Santos
Penalty confirmed
D'Avilla
Voloder
Salétros
Dean
Choupo-Moting
Penalty
Haile-Selassie
Yellow Card
Ruvalcaba
Yellow Card
Haile-Selassie
Cuypers
Valencia
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Chicago Fire
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1C. BradyG
- 3J. ElliottD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 9H. CuypersF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 15A. GutmanD
- 16J. WatermanD
- 19J. BambaM
- 24J. DeanD
- 42T. D'AvillaM
Substitutes
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 8C. MuellerF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 14V. RadojevićD
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 22M. PinedaD
- 27Dylan BorsoF
- 35S. OregelM
- 44J. CohenG
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 6R. VoloderD
- 7C. CowellM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 12D. NealisD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 26T. ParkerD
- 34E. HorvathG
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 2J. CheD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 4G. BerggrenM
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 37M. SofoF
- 39N. BenedettiM
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Cuypers | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Anton Salétros | M | 80 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Dje Tah D'Avilla | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Bamba | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Philip Zinckernagel | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/3 |
| Joel Waterman | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Dean | D | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Andrew Gutman | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maren Haile-Selassie | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jack Elliott(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Chris Brady | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Mueller | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Cohen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viktor Radojević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puso Dithejane | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Sergio Oregel | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dylan Borso | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mauricio Pineda | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Jason Shokalook | F | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Nealis | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Cade Cowell | M | 73 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Parker | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 60 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Hall | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Sofo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nehuen Benedetti | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Mosquera | F | 17 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 45 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Gustav Berggren | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Omar Valencia | D | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Justin Che | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chicago Fire to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chicago Fire 1–0 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Chicago Fire a 57% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 57% confidence — a medium-confidence call.