Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Chicago Fire snatch narrow win over NYCFC
A late strike from M. Haile-Selassie seals a 2-1 victory at home.
New York City FC took an early lead through H. Wolf's 19th-minute goal, but Chicago Fire fought back after the break with A. Salétros equalising in the 55th minute. The hosts clinched the win thanks to M. Haile-Selassie's decisive goal in the 87th minute. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a 2-1 home win proved spot on, quietly earning its place.
Outcome probability
Chicago Fire and New York City FC face off in what promises to be a competitive MLS regular season match. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, but the Fire's home scoring streak and key player performances could tip the scales.
Match factors
Lewandowski and Lod Absence Weakens Chicago Fire Attack
Lewandowski and Lod are confirmed out, removing key goal threats and shifting scoring burden to Cuypers and Haile-Selassie.
Cuypers' Superior Scoring Rate at Home
Cuypers has a high home scoring rate with 13 goals in 11 games, outperforming league average attackers.
Chicago Fire's Strong Home Scoring Streak
Chicago Fire have scored in all last 5 home games, indicating offensive momentum at home advantage.
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's Consistent Scoring Form
NYCFC's top scorer Fernández Mercau has 15 goals and is in good recent form, posing a consistent threat.
Axel Ojeda's Playmaking Boosts NYCFC Attack
Ojeda leads NYCFC with 8 assists and strong recent away assist form, enhancing attacking creativity.
The context
This fixture is part of the MLS regular season round 28. Historically, New York City FC have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 12 of 20 matches against Chicago Fire. However, the average goals per game in these encounters is a healthy 2.6, suggesting an open and attacking game.
Key insights
Hugo Cuypers
Chicago Fire
Cuypers has a high home scoring rate with 13 goals in 11 games, making him a key offensive threat especially with key teammates out.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 11 appearances, 989 minutes
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 15 goals and is in strong recent form, posing a consistent threat to the Fire defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 25 appearances, 2241 minutes
Axel Ojeda
New York City FC
Ojeda's 8 assists and strong recent away form boost NYCFC's attacking creativity and chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 26 appearances, 2136 minutes
Maren Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
Haile-Selassie contributes both goals and assists, with good home form and recent scoring streak supporting the Fire attack.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances, 1740 minutes
Analysis
Chicago Fire's attack will rely heavily on Hugo Cuypers, who boasts 13 goals in 11 home appearances this season, making him a significant threat especially with Lewandowski and Lod sidelined. Maren Haile-Selassie also adds creativity and goal threat from midfield. On the other side, New York City FC's Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads their scoring charts with 15 goals and has been in consistent form. Axel Ojeda's playmaking ability, with 8 assists, will be crucial for NYCFC's attacking efforts. The Fire's recent home scoring streak and Cuypers' clinical finishing give them a slight edge despite NYCFC's historical dominance.
Key facts
- 1.New York City FC have won 12 of 20 matches against Chicago Fire, with 6 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game.
- 3.Chicago Fire have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 4.Hugo Cuypers has scored 13 goals in 11 home appearances this season.
- 5.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 15 goals this season.
- 6.Axel Ojeda has provided 8 assists for NYCFC, showing strong playmaking form.
- 7.Lewandowski and Lod are out for Chicago Fire, increasing reliance on Cuypers and Haile-Selassie.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Chicago Fire with a 2-1 scoreline. While the model's confidence is low due to limited data and missing standings information, the Fire's offensive momentum at home and key player contributions make this a plausible outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chicago Fire
Away — New York City FC
The verdict
Expect a closely contested match with both sides finding the net, but Chicago Fire's home advantage and standout performers should see them narrowly claim victory. Fans can look forward to an entertaining encounter with goals and tactical battles.
Prediction generated 7 Oct 2026, 02:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Wolf
Assist: Ojeda
D'Avilla
Yellow Card
D'Avilla
Red Card
Bamba
Cavallo
Salétros
Assist: Haile-Selassie
Martínez
Perea
Mbokazi
Yellow Card
Leonardo Barroso
Lewandowski
Zinckernagel
Ojeda
Sands
Wolf
Haile-Selassie
Pineda
Yellow Card
Haile-Selassie
Match Statistics
Chicago Fire
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1C. BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 19J. BambaM
- 24J. DeanD
- 42T. D'AvillaM
Substitutes
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 15A. GutmanD
- 18J. GómezF
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 22M. PinedaD
- 29D. PorębaM
- 32N. AllenD
- 35S. OregelM
- 44J. CohenG
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 16A. MartínezF
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 9B. TraoréF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 88M. JonesF
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Haile-Selassie | F | 95 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Salétros | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| P. Zinckernagel | M | 71 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| C. Brady | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gómez | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Dithejane | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Barroso | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Elliott | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Mbokazi | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 4/4 |
| J. Dean | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Allen | D | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bamba | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. D'Avilla | M | 43 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Pineda | D | 44 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Poręba | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Oregel | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hanche-Olsen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gutman | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Cohen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Wolf | M | 82 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| N. Fernández Mercau | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Thiago Martins | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Gray | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| A. Ojeda | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Sands | D | 76 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Jones | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| K. O'Toole | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Perea | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Martínez | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| B. Traoré | F | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 30 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Shore | M | 14 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Freese | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Miazga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxwell Murray | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Romero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chicago Fire to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's model gave Chicago Fire a 35% chance of winning, New York City FC a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.