Chicago Fire vs DC United
Match recap
DC United beat Chicago Fire 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Cuypers scored for Chicago Fire; Peltola and Baribo replied for DC United. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.93 for Chicago Fire versus 1.61 for DC United.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Chicago Fire win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Chicago Fire and DC United face off in what promises to be an engaging MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown flashes of quality, but the Fire's attacking firepower and home advantage set the stage for an exciting contest.
Match factors
Chicago Fire's attacking midfield creativity
Zinckernagel and Haile-Selassie provide strong creative support, enhancing scoring chances for Cuypers and Lewandowski
Hugo Cuypers' prolific scoring form
Cuypers leads with 13 goals this season, significantly above league average for attackers
Tai Baribo's consistent scoring for DC United
Baribo has 14 goals and is DC United's main scoring outlet, though team struggles overall
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, so all key players expected to participate
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season's fourth round, with Chicago Fire looking to build momentum on home turf. DC United, meanwhile, aim to challenge their hosts despite recent struggles to find consistent scoring form away from home.
Key insights
Hugo Cuypers
Chicago Fire
League top scorer with 13 goals, excellent conversion rate and strong home form.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 11 appearances, 1.18 goals/game
Philip Frigast Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
Top assister with 8 assists, creative midfielder boosting scoring chances.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 26 appearances, 0.31 assists/game
Tai Baribo
DC United
Leading scorer with 14 goals, consistent threat despite team's overall struggles.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
Analysis
Chicago Fire boast a potent attack led by Hugo Cuypers, who has netted 13 goals this season and thrives particularly well at home. His partnership with creative midfielders Philip Frigast Zinckernagel and Maren Haile-Selassie provides a steady supply of chances. DC United's main threat comes from Tai Baribo, their leading scorer with 14 goals, but the team has found it tough to convert opportunities consistently. Historically, matches between these sides average nearly three goals, suggesting an open game. The Fire's defensive organisation, marshalled by captain Jack Elliott, will be key to containing DC United's attacks.
Key facts
- 1.Chicago Fire have won 7 of 20 head-to-head matches against DC United, who have won 6, with 7 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head encounters average 2.8 goals per game, indicating an open style of play.
- 3.Hugo Cuypers leads Chicago Fire with 13 goals this season, showcasing excellent home form.
- 4.Tai Baribo is DC United's top scorer with 14 goals, providing their main offensive threat.
- 5.Philip Frigast Zinckernagel tops Chicago Fire's assists chart with 8 this season, highlighting his creative influence.
- 6.No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, ensuring full-strength squads.
Prediction
We anticipate Chicago Fire to take an early lead, reflected in a 1-0 halftime scoreline, before extending their advantage to a 3-1 fulltime victory. The Fire's home form and attacking depth should prove decisive, overcoming DC United's efforts to respond.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chicago Fire
Away — DC United
The verdict
In summary, Chicago Fire's blend of clinical finishing and creative midfield play is expected to outshine DC United. Fans can look forward to a lively match with the Fire emerging comfortably on top, continuing their strong start to the MLS season.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zinckernagel
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Elliott
Yellow Card
D'Avilla
Yellow Card
D'Avilla
Lod
Elliott
Pirani
Penalty confirmed
Cuypers
Penalty
Peltola
Peglow
Penalty confirmed
Leonardo Barroso
Servania
Dean
Baribo
Penalty
Match Statistics
Chicago Fire
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1C. BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 9H. CuypersF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 17R. LodM
- 19J. BambaM
- 24J. DeanD
- 42T. D'AvillaM
Substitutes
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 12P. DithejaneD
- 14V. RadojevićD
- 16J. WatermanD
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 22M. PinedaD
- 27Dylan BorsoM
- 35S. OregelM
- 44J. CohenG
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 10Gabriel PiraniF
- 15K. RowlesD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsM
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 12C. AntleyD
- 13S. NealisD
- 17J. MurrellF
- 24J. FarrG
- 26A. BonoG
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 77Hosei KijimaM
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Salétros | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jack Elliott(C) | D | 65 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Lod | M | 65 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Hugo Cuypers | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Dean | D | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dje Tah D'Avilla | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philip Zinckernagel | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jonathan Bamba | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/9 |
| Leonardo Barroso | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Chris Brady | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sergio Oregel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puso Dithejane | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Cohen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jason Shokalook | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viktor Radojević | D | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Pineda | D | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maren Haile-Selassie | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Dylan Borso | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Joel Waterman | D | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matti Peltola | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kye Rowles | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tai Baribo | F | 90 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| Brandon Servania | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sean Johnson | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| João Peglow | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jackson Hopkins | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Gabriel Pirani | F | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Conner Antley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Farr | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Nealis | D | 12 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murrell | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chicago Fire vs DC United?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chicago Fire to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chicago Fire vs DC United?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chicago Fire 3–1 DC United.
- What were the win probabilities for Chicago Fire vs DC United?
- Fipster's model gave Chicago Fire a 91% chance of winning, DC United a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.