Chelsea vs Tottenham
Match recap
Chelsea beat Tottenham 2–1 in their Premier League fixture. Fernández and Santos scored for Chelsea; Richarlison replied for Tottenham. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.63 for Chelsea versus 1.72 for Tottenham. Chelsea sit 10th in the Premier League table while Tottenham are 17th.
Analysis
The London derby between Chelsea and Tottenham is set to deliver fireworks as both sides battle for crucial points in the Premier League. With Chelsea hosting, the Blues look poised to leverage their home advantage in this eagerly awaited fixture.
Chelsea have historically dominated this fixture, winning 14 of the last 20 encounters against Tottenham. This season, Chelsea boast a positive goal difference of +6, while Tottenham trail with -9, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of these rivals.
Despite missing their top scorer João Pedro due to injury, Chelsea's attacking threat remains potent thanks to Marc Cucurella's creative prowess and M. Caicedo's midfield control. Tottenham, hampered by Richarlison's absence, will rely heavily on defensive stalwarts like Cristian Romero to keep Chelsea at bay. The predicted halftime score of 1-1 suggests a competitive first half, but Chelsea's home form and tactical edge should see them prevail.
Prediction
We forecast a 2-1 victory for Chelsea, with the match likely tied at 1-1 by halftime. The game is expected to be competitive, featuring around four cards, reflecting the intensity of this London derby. Confidence in this outcome stands at a solid 85%.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Chelsea's Attack Missing Key Scorer
João Pedro's injury reduces Chelsea's primary goal threat, impacting scoring potential.
Marc Cucurella's Creative Influence
Cucurella's crossing and set-piece ability provide Chelsea a wide attacking edge.
Midfield Passing and Control
Caicedo's high passing accuracy and volume give Chelsea control in midfield.
Tottenham's Attack Weakened by Richarlison's Absence
Richarlison's injury limits Tottenham's goal-scoring options and attacking threat.
Defensive Stability Key for Tottenham
Romero and Palhinha's defensive presence crucial to contain Chelsea's attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Chelsea's historical dominance, combined with key player contributions and home advantage, make them favourites to secure a narrow win over Tottenham. Fans can expect a closely fought contest with moments of quality and tension throughout.
- Chelsea have won 14 of the last 20 matches against Tottenham.
- Chelsea hold a +6 goal difference this season compared to Tottenham's -9.
- João Pedro is Chelsea's top scorer with 15 goals but is currently injured.
- Marc Cucurella has provided 4 assists this season, key in Chelsea's attack.
- Tottenham's Richarlison, their top scorer with 10 goals, is sidelined due to injury.
- The predicted halftime score is 1-1, indicating a tight first half.
- Total cards expected in the match are around 4, reflecting a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chelsea
Away — Tottenham
No standout top scorers flagged for Tottenham
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fernández
Assist: Neto
Pedro Porro
Yellow Card
van de Ven
Yellow Card
Udogie
Yellow Card
Santos
Assist: Fernández
João Palhinha
Kolo Muani
Udogie
Richarlison
Assist: Sarr
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
Hato
Yellow Card
Fofana
Cucurella
Yellow Card
Delap
Yellow Card
Delap
Neto
Palmer
Dário Essugo
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Chelsea
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Robert SánchezG
- 3Marc CucurellaD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 8E. FernándezM
- 9L. DelapF
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 21J. HatoD
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 29W. FofanaD
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
Substitutes
- 12F. JörgensenG
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 19M. SarrD
- 23T. ChalobahD
- 24R. JamesD
- 49A. GarnachoF
- 55J. DerryF
- 62Shumaira MheukaF
- 76R. Kavuma McQueenF
Tottenham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. DansoD
- 6João PalhinhaM
- 9RicharlisonF
- 11M. TelM
- 13D. UdogieD
- 22C. GallagherM
- 23Pedro PorroD
- 30R. BentancurM
- 31A. KinskýG
- 37M. van de VenD
- 39R. Kolo MuaniM
Substitutes
- 1G. VicarioG
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 8Y. BissoumaM
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 14A. GrayM
- 15L. BergvallM
- 24D. SpenceD
- 29P. SarrM
- 38SouzaD
Chelsea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández(C) | M | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Andrey Santos | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Moisés Caicedo | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Jorrel Hato | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Acheampong | D | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Palmer | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Wesley Fofana | D | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liam Delap | F | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Robert Sánchez | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Filip Jørgensen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reece James | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Kavuma-McQueen | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Derry | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Sarr | D | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dário Essugo | M | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trevoh Chalobah | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Garnacho | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shumaira Mheuka | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Tottenham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| João Palhinha | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Danso | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Antonín Kinský | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Micky van de Ven(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conor Gallagher | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mathys Tel | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Destiny Udogie | D | 69 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Randal Kolo Muani | M | 69 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Souza | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Archie Gray | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Radu Drăguşin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Bergvall | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yves Bissouma | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guglielmo Vicario | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Maddison | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Djed Spence | D | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Pape Matar Sarr | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |