Chelsea vs Tottenham
Tottenham sneak a late double at Chelsea
Two late goals, including an own goal, secure a narrow win for Spurs at Stamford Bridge.
Tottenham pulled off a surprise 2-0 victory over Chelsea, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-1 home win. The match was settled by a 77th-minute own goal from M. Penders and a late strike by M. Tel in the 87th minute, turning the tide firmly in Spurs' favour. Chelsea were left to rue missed chances as Tottenham capitalised late to claim all three points.
Outcome probability
Chelsea and Tottenham face off in a crucial Regular Season - 8 fixture, with The Blues looking to extend their strong league form against struggling Spurs.
Match factors
Chelsea's potent home attack vs Tottenham's struggling defense
Chelsea averages 3.7 goals at home with João Pedro and Rogers in strong form, while Tottenham concedes 1.5 goals away and is missing key midfielder Bentancur (out)
João Pedro's dual threat as top scorer and assister
João Pedro leads Chelsea with 5 goals and 3 assists this season, showing high involvement in goal creation
Chelsea's recent scoring streak at home
Chelsea has scored in all last 3 home games, with João Pedro scoring 5 goals in those matches
Tottenham missing key midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur
Bentancur is confirmed out due to red card suspension, weakening Tottenham's midfield defensive and creative capabilities
Chelsea's creative attackers supported by high passing defenders
Defenders like Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix provide high passing accuracy (88-90%) aiding Chelsea's build-up and assist potential
The context
Chelsea currently sit 4th in the league with 13 points from 7 games, showcasing solid form and a positive goal difference. Tottenham, on the other hand, find themselves at the bottom of the table with just 3 points from 6 games and a negative goal difference, highlighting their struggles this season.
Key insights
João Pedro
Chelsea
Leads Chelsea with 5 goals and 3 assists, showing high involvement in goal creation and strong home scoring form.
Premier League 26/275 goals and 3 assists in 6 appearances, including 5 goals in last 3 home matches.
Morgan Rogers
Chelsea
Consistent scorer with 4 goals in 7 games, contributing significantly to Chelsea's attack.
Premier League 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game.
- R
Rodrigo Bentancur
Tottenham
Key midfielder missing due to suspension, weakening Tottenham's midfield both defensively and creatively.
Premier League 26/27Confirmed out due to red card suspension.
Analysis
Chelsea's dominance over Tottenham is clear, having won 14 of their last 20 encounters. The Blues boast a +4 goal difference compared to Spurs' -6, reflecting better offensive and defensive performances. Key player João Pedro leads Chelsea with 5 goals and 3 assists this season, particularly impressive with 5 goals in the last 3 home games. Tottenham will miss midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur due to suspension, weakening their midfield both defensively and creatively. Chelsea's defenders also contribute to their attacking play with high passing accuracy, aiding their build-up and assist potential.
Key facts
- 1.Chelsea have won 14 of 20 matches against Tottenham.
- 2.Chelsea are 4th in the league with 13 points from 7 games.
- 3.Tottenham are 20th with 3 points from 6 games.
- 4.Chelsea have a +4 goal difference; Tottenham have -6.
- 5.João Pedro has scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists this season.
- 6.Tottenham's Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended for this match.
- 7.Chelsea have scored in all their last 3 home games.
- 8.Predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Chelsea.
Prediction
Expect Chelsea to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted halftime score of 2-0. Their attacking prowess, combined with Tottenham's defensive frailties and missing key players, points to a comprehensive 4-1 victory for The Blues by fulltime. The match is also expected to be moderately physical, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chelsea
Away — Tottenham
No standout top scorers flagged for Tottenham
The verdict
Chelsea's superior form, home advantage, and key player performances make them clear favourites to secure all three points against Tottenham. Spurs will need a miracle to avoid a heavy defeat in this one.
Prediction generated 19 Oct 2026, 20:59 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Maddison
Omar Marmoush
Robertson
Hato
Gallagher
Yellow Card
van de Ven
Yellow Card
Palmer
Yellow Card
Geovany Tcherno Quenda
Mateus Fernandes
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Penders (OG)
Neto
Yellow Card
Palmer
Red Card
Tel
Neto
Kudus
Tel
Rogers
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
Match Statistics
Chelsea
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 17M. RogersF
- 21J. HatoM
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 39M. PendersG
Substitutes
- 2M. PalestraD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 27M. GustoD
- 28T. Sharman-LoweG
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 45R. LaviaM
Tottenham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3A. RobertsonD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 11M. TelM
- 14A. GrayD
- 16S. TonaliM
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 20M. KudusM
- 22Omar MarmoushF
- 31A. KinskýG
- 37M. van de VenD
Substitutes
- 5M. SenesiD
- 8C. GallagherM
- 19D. SolankeF
- 21D. KulusevskiM
- 23Pedro PorroD
- 33B. DaviesD
- 39M. DúbravkaG
- 68L. Williams-BarnettM
Chelsea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Colwill | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Welbeck | F | 2 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hato | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Caicedo | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Estêvão | F | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joshua Kofi Acheampong | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Neto | M | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Palestra | D | 25 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geovany Tcherno Quenda | M | 72 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Henderson | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Palmer | M | 80 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| M. Rogers | F | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Penders | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lavia | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Barco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Fofana | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Nicoll-Jazuli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gusto | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Sharman-Lowe | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Tottenham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tel | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4/6 |
| A. Kinský | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. van Hecke | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Gray | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Robertson | D | 65 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Porro | D | 25 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Tonali | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| M. van de Ven | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kudus | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/5 |
| B. Davies | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Gallagher | M | 39 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Kulusevski | M | 1 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Maddison | M | 51 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateus Fernandes | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| D. Solanke | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Omar Marmoush | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| L. Williams-Barnett | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dúbravka | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Senesi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chelsea vs Tottenham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chelsea to win against Tottenham.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chelsea vs Tottenham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chelsea 4–1 Tottenham.
- What were the win probabilities for Chelsea vs Tottenham?
- Fipster's model gave Chelsea a 95% chance of winning, Tottenham a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.