Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Match recap
Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 3–1 in their Premier League fixture. João Pedro scored for Chelsea; Awoniyi, Igor Jesus, and Awoniyi replied for Nottingham Forest. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.93 for Chelsea versus 2.07 for Nottingham Forest. Chelsea sit 10th in the Premier League table while Nottingham Forest are 16th.
Analysis
Chelsea welcome Nottingham Forest to Stamford Bridge in what promises to be a competitive Premier League fixture. Both teams have their strengths, but Chelsea's home advantage and recent form give them the edge.
Chelsea currently sit 8th in the league, boasting a better goal difference than 16th-placed Nottingham Forest. Historically, Chelsea have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters. Forest, however, have shown resilience, scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Chelsea's attack will rely heavily on Alejandro Garnacho, who leads the team with 4 assists and 4 goals this season, despite some key injuries. Nottingham Forest's main threat comes from Morgan Gibbs-White, who has been in blistering form with 5 goals in his last 5 games. The match is expected to be tight, with a predicted halftime score of 1-1 before Chelsea clinch the win in the second half.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Chelsea, reflecting their home advantage and slightly superior squad depth. The match should see around 4 cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest. Confidence in this prediction stands at 59%, suggesting a reasonably close game but with Chelsea favourites.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Chelsea's key attackers missing
João Pedro and Pedro Neto are injured, reducing Chelsea's main goal threat, shifting responsibility to Garnacho.
Morgan Gibbs-White's hot streak
Gibbs-White has scored 5 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Forest's attacking threat significantly.
Garnacho's creative influence
Garnacho leads Chelsea in assists and is pivotal in attack, likely to exploit Forest's defense.
Forest's scoring consistency
Forest has scored in 4 of last 5 matches, showing good offensive form despite lower league position.
Defensive stability concerns for Chelsea
Chelsea missing Reece James and others due to injury may weaken defensive solidity against Forest's attackers.
Key Takeaways
In summary, expect a spirited encounter with Chelsea edging out Nottingham Forest thanks to key contributions from Garnacho and a solid home performance. Forest will not go down without a fight, making this a match worth watching.
- Chelsea have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Nottingham Forest.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, indicating an open game.
- Chelsea are 8th in the league with a superior goal difference compared to Forest's 16th place.
- Morgan Gibbs-White has scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches for Nottingham Forest.
- Alejandro Garnacho leads Chelsea with 4 assists and 4 goals this season.
- Chelsea are missing key defenders like Reece James due to injury.
- The predicted halftime score is 1-1, with a fulltime score of 2-1 in favour of Chelsea.
- The match is expected to have around 4 cards, suggesting a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chelsea
Away — Nottingham Forest
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Awoniyi
Assist: Bakwa
Morato
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Gusto
Yellow Card
Igor Jesus
Penalty
Abbott
Derry
Adarabioyo
Domínguez
Igor Jesus
Jair
Awoniyi
Assist: Gibbs-White
Lavia
Unknown
Sánchez
Goal cancelled
Delap
Yellow Card
Caicedo
Yellow Card
Bakwa
João Pedro
Assist: Cucurella
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 9 |  Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +3 | 53 |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 | 52 |
| 11 |  Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | -4 | 52 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -10 | 45 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | -3 | 44 |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Chelsea
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Robert SánchezG
- 3Marc CucurellaD
- 4T. AdarabioyoD
- 8E. FernándezM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 20João PedroF
- 23T. ChalobahD
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 27M. GustoD
- 45R. LaviaM
- 55J. DerryM
Substitutes
- 6L. ColwillD
- 9L. DelapF
- 12F. JörgensenG
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 21J. HatoD
- 24R. JamesD
- 29W. FofanaD
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
Nottingham Forest
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4MoratoD
- 9T. AwoniyiF
- 16N. DomínguezM
- 19Igor JesusF
- 22R. YatesM
- 23JairD
- 24J. McAteeM
- 25L. NetzD
- 26M. SelsG
- 29D. BakwaM
- 44Z. AbbottD
Substitutes
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 11C. WoodF
- 20L. LuccaF
- 21O. HutchinsonF
- 27S. OrtegaG
- 31N. MilenkovićD
Chelsea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández(C) | M | 100 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 7 | 0/1 |
| João Pedro | F | 100 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/6 |
| Moisés Caicedo | M | 100 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roméo Lavia | M | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jesse Derry | M | 54 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 100 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Robert Sánchez | G | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tosin Adarabioyo | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trevoh Chalobah | D | 100 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Malo Gusto | D | 100 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1/2 |
| Cole Palmer | M | 100 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jorrel Hato | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Acheampong | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reece James | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Fofana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dário Essugo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrey Santos | M | 42 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Levi Colwill | D | 55 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Jørgensen | G | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liam Delap | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwo Awoniyi | F | 100 | 8.7 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Matz Sels | G | 100 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | M | 80 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jair | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 45 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Ryan Yates(C) | M | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morato | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Netz | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Zach Abbott | D | 50 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James McAtee | M | 100 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lorenzo Lucca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Ortega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | M | 21 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 55 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Chris Wood | F | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neco Williams | D | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | F | 20 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |