Charlton vs Derby
Charlton come from behind to edge Derby
A determined Charlton side overturns an early deficit with second-half goals.
Derby took an early lead through S. Szmodics at 23 minutes, but Charlton rallied after the break with goals from L. Jones and T. Campbell to secure a 2-1 victory. The comeback was sealed with Campbell's strike in the 80th minute, completing the turnaround. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Charlton win at 2-1 proved spot on.
Analysis
The new season kicks off with Charlton facing Derby in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams will be eager to start on a high note, but the prediction leans towards a home win by a slender margin.
This fixture marks the first round of the regular season in league 40. Charlton and Derby have met 17 times previously, with Derby holding the upper hand historically. Derby are ranked 4th in the league standings, while Charlton sit 11th, setting the stage for an intriguing clash between a higher-ranked away side and a determined home team.
Despite Derby's historical dominance with 10 wins to Charlton's 4, the prediction favours Charlton to clinch a 2-1 victory. The average goals per head-to-head match stand at 2.4, supporting a moderate scoring game. The model's confidence of 85% reflects a strong belief in a home win, even though the probabilities for a draw and away win are close. This suggests a tightly fought encounter with Charlton just edging it.
Prediction
Expect Charlton to take the spoils with a 2-1 win. The home side's slight advantage in the prediction model, combined with the anticipated scoreline, points to a competitive match where Charlton's resilience and home advantage could prove decisive.
Outcome probability
Key Takeaways
In summary, while Derby have the historical edge and a higher league ranking, Charlton are tipped to start their season with a victory. Fans can look forward to a spirited contest with goals and a narrow margin separating the sides.
- Derby lead the head-to-head record with 10 wins to Charlton's 4 in 17 matches.
- The average goals per match in their meetings is 2.4, indicating moderate scoring.
- Derby are ranked 4th in the league, Charlton 11th, before the season starts.
- This is the first round of the regular season for both teams.
- The predicted final score is 2-1 in favour of Charlton with 85% confidence.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlton
Away — Derby
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Szmodics
Assist: Morris
Szmodics
Carey
Godden
Langås
Yellow Card
Jones
Assist: Ahearne-Grant
Ahearne-Grant
Goal
Forsyth
Fraulo
Ward
Travis
Chalobah
McNamara
Brewster
Yellow Card
Mowatt
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 |  Derby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 |  Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Charlton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5L. JonesD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 7Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 14S. CareyM
- 15N. ChalobahM
- 17A. BellD
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 24M. GoddenF
- 25W. MannionG
Substitutes
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 18I. MesíkD
- 19M. AlliF
- 21T. BrooksG
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 28C. SichenjeD
- 30R. ApterM
- 32A. MwambaD
Derby
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 3C. ForsythD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 18C. TaylorD
- 23J. WardD
- 27L. TravisM
- 28D. SandersonD
- 29O. FrauloM
Substitutes
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 20A. MowattM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 37Owen EamesM
Charlton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Jones(C) | D | 97 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Tyreece Campbell | M | 97 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3/6 |
| Karlan Grant | M | 73 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nathaniel Chalobah | M | 85 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Conor Coventry | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danny McNamara | D | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sonny Carey | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| Billy Koumetio | D | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| William Mannion | G | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amari'i Bell | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Godden | F | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tiernan Brooks | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Knibbs | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Nwamba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Apter | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Mesík | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miles Leaburn | F | 38 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Joe Rankin-Costello | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Millenic Alli | F | 38 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Collins Sichenje | D | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Szmodics | F | 54 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Lewis Travis(C) | M | 84 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Craig Forsyth | D | 83 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dion Sanderson | D | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Widell Zetterström | G | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bobby Clark | M | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Sondre Langås | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Fraulo | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Charlie Taylor | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Ward | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Carlton Morris | F | 97 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Filip Bilbija | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Vickers | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Owen Eames | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Nyambe | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mowatt | M | 43 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Max Johnston | D | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Corey Blackett-Taylor | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Rhian Brewster | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |