Charlton vs Bristol City
Charlton and Bristol City share spoils
A penalty rescue denies Charlton a home win in a lively Championship clash.
Charlton took an early lead through K. Ahearne-Grant's strike in the 8th minute, but Bristol City responded with a penalty converted by S. Twine before the half-hour mark to level the scores. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a narrow home victory, leaving both sides to settle for a point in this competitive encounter.
Outcome probability
Charlton and Bristol City face off in what promises to be a closely contested league encounter. Both sides have shown competitive form this season, but the home side looks poised to clinch a narrow victory.
Match factors
Bristol City's attacking edge through Ballard and Cardines
Dominic Ballard leads Bristol City with 3 goals and Rio Cardines has 6 assists, both well above league averages for their positions
Rio Cardines' exceptional assist contribution
Cardines' 6 assists in 8 games is outstanding for a defender, making him a key creative outlet
Charlton's midfield control via Coventry
Coventry's high passing volume and defensive work could help Charlton control midfield and limit Bristol City's chances
Charlton missing key attackers and defenders
Charlton's confirmed absences include key attacker M. Godden and several defenders, weakening their offensive and defensive options
Bristol City's recent scoring consistency away
Bristol City has scored in all last 4 away games, showing strong offensive momentum on the road
The context
Charlton currently sit 7th in the league with 12 points from 7 games, boasting a record of three wins, three draws, and a single loss. Bristol City are just above them in 5th place with 13 points from 8 games, having won four, drawn one, and lost three. Their head-to-head history is evenly matched, with three wins apiece and two draws from eight meetings.
Key insights
Dominic Ballard
Bristol City
Leading scorer for Bristol City with 3 goals, showing strong recent form despite limited starts.
Championship 26/273 goals in 8 appearances, 38.5 avg mins/game
Rio Cardines
Bristol City
Exceptional assist provider with 6 assists in 8 games, a key creative outlet from defence.
Championship 26/276 assists in 8 appearances, 81.5 avg mins/game
- C
C. Coventry
Charlton
Controls midfield with high passing volume and defensive work, crucial for Charlton's game plan.
Championship 26/27High passing accuracy and strong defensive stats
Analysis
Charlton's midfield control, led by C. Coventry's high passing accuracy and defensive work, could be key in limiting Bristol City's attacking threats. Bristol City's offensive edge comes from Dominic Ballard, their top scorer with three goals, and Rio Cardines, who leads the league with six assists despite being a defender. However, Charlton's defensive solidity and home advantage are likely to keep Bristol City's scoring opportunities in check. The predicted 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline suggests an early goal for Charlton, followed by disciplined defending to maintain the lead. The match is also expected to be competitive in terms of discipline, with around four cards anticipated.
Key facts
- 1.Charlton are 7th in the league with 12 points from 7 games (W3 D3 L1).
- 2.Bristol City are 5th with 13 points from 8 games (W4 D1 L3).
- 3.Head-to-head record is balanced: 3 wins each and 2 draws in 8 meetings.
- 4.Dominic Ballard is Bristol City's top scorer with 3 goals in 8 appearances.
- 5.Rio Cardines leads the league with 6 assists in 8 games, exceptional for a defender.
- 6.Charlton's C. Coventry is key in midfield with high passing accuracy and defensive contributions.
- 7.Predicted total cards in the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
We expect Charlton to take an early lead and hold on for a 1-0 victory. Their ability to control the midfield and defend resolutely should be enough to overcome Bristol City's attacking threats. The game is likely to be tight, with few goals and a moderate number of cards.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlton
No standout top scorers flagged for Charlton
Away — Bristol City
The verdict
In a fixture where both teams have their strengths, Charlton's home form and midfield control give them the edge. Bristol City will push for an equaliser, but the visitors may find it tough to break down a disciplined Charlton side. Expect a close game decided by a single goal.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 13:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ahearne-Grant
Assist: Campbell
Twine
Penalty
Mbick
Edwards
De Keersmaecker
Hirakawa
Dawson Koumetio
Yellow Card
Leaburn
Ahearne-Grant
Twine
Randell
Campbell
Adebayo
Yellow Card
Mesík
Yellow Card
Ballard
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 |  West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
Match Statistics
Charlton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3J. EdwardsD
- 5L. JonesD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 33Micah MbickM
- 34O. SkippM
Substitutes
- 2K. RamsayD
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 14S. CareyM
- 17A. BellD
- 18I. MesíkD
- 19M. AlliF
- 23C. KelmanF
- 25W. MannionG
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
Bristol City
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. TickleG
- 4A. RandellM
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 10S. TwineM
- 12J. KnightM
- 15L. McNallyD
- 19G. TannerD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 23D. BallardF
Substitutes
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 11S. BellF
- 14T. HorvatM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 27G. YahM
- 40B. CollinsG
- 45E. AdebayoF
Charlton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Ahearne-Grant | M | 77 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| O. Skipp | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| T. Campbell | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Micah Mbick | M | 53 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2/4 |
| C. Kelman | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Coventry | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Alli | F | 1 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jones | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Knibbs | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. McNamara | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Okonkwo | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Leaburn | F | 77 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| K. Ramsay | D | 37 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Billy Dawson Koumetio | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Mesík | D | 37 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Edwards | D | 53 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Mannion | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rankin-Costello | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Carey | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bristol City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Twine | M | 78 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| B. De Keersmaecker | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Randell | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Greenwood | M | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Atkinson | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. McNally | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pring | D | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rio Cardines | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Knight | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Tanner | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| E. Adebayo | F | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Hirakawa | M | 65 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Yah | M | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tickle | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ballard | F | 93 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Collins | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Horvat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Eissat | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Wallace | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlton to win against Bristol City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlton 1–0 Bristol City.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's model gave Charlton a 60% chance of winning, Bristol City a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 60% confidence — a medium-confidence call.