Charlotte vs Philadelphia Union
Match recap
Charlotte beat Philadelphia Union 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Westwood and Zaha scored for Charlotte; Jean-Jacques replied for Philadelphia Union. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.46 for Charlotte versus 1.71 for Philadelphia Union.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Charlotte and Philadelphia Union face off in what promises to be a lively MLS regular season fixture. Both sides have shown attacking intent this season, setting the stage for an entertaining encounter.
Match factors
Iloski's Scoring Form Fuels Philadelphia's Attack
Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 17 goals this season, scoring 6 in last 5 games, providing a strong attacking edge.
Charlotte's Toklomati Giorno is a Consistent Goal Threat
Idan Toklomati Giorno has 11 goals this season with strong recent form, making him a key scoring outlet for Charlotte.
Philadelphia's Assist Leaders Show Creative Momentum
Frankie Westfield and Cavan Sullivan have combined for 14 assists recently, boosting Philadelphia's chance creation.
Pep Biel's Dual Threat as Scorer and Creator
Pep Biel contributes 11 goals and 7 assists this season, making him a pivotal player for Charlotte's offense.
Charlotte Missing Key Attackers Goodwin and Berchimas
Charlotte's confirmed absences of Goodwin and Berchimas reduce attacking depth, increasing reliance on Giorno and Biel.
The context
This match is part of the regular season's sixth round, with both teams eager to climb the standings. Historically, their meetings have been evenly matched, with four wins apiece and two draws in ten encounters, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture.
Key insights
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Iloski's recent form is exceptional, scoring 6 goals in the last 5 games, making him a key factor in Philadelphia's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2717 goals in 28 apps, 0.61 goals/game
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Giorno remains a consistent goal threat with 11 goals this season and strong recent form, vital for Charlotte's offensive efforts.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 apps, 0.41 goals/game
Pep Biel
Charlotte
Biel's dual role as scorer and creator is crucial, contributing 11 goals and 7 assists this season, driving Charlotte's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 7 assists in 28 apps
Frankie Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Westfield's 8 assists highlight his importance in Philadelphia's chance creation, especially with his set-piece delivery.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 23 apps, 0.35 assists/game
Analysis
The head-to-head record suggests a balanced contest, with an average of 2.2 goals per match indicating a decent scoring potential. Charlotte's Idan Toklomati Giorno and Pep Biel have been influential, combining goal-scoring and creative contributions. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's Milan Iloski leads their attack with 17 goals this season, including a hot streak of six goals in the last five games. Assist providers like Frankie Westfield and Cavan Sullivan add to Philadelphia's offensive threat, making them a formidable side to break down.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte and Philadelphia Union have each won 4 of their 10 meetings, with 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, indicating a lively scoring potential.
- 3.Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 17 goals this season, including 6 in the last 5 games.
- 4.Idan Toklomati Giorno has scored 11 goals for Charlotte this season, showing consistent threat.
- 5.Pep Biel contributes both goals and assists, with 11 goals and 7 assists this season.
- 6.Frankie Westfield and Cavan Sullivan have combined for 14 assists recently, boosting Philadelphia's creativity.
Prediction
Our prediction leans towards a 3-2 victory for Philadelphia Union, reflecting their recent attacking form and ability to edge tight contests. The away side's firepower, spearheaded by Iloski, is expected to outscore Charlotte despite the home side's resilience and key contributions from Giorno and Biel.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — Philadelphia Union
The verdict
Expect a high-tempo, goal-filled match with both teams pushing forward. Philadelphia's attacking momentum should see them narrowly overcome Charlotte in a game that could easily have gone either way.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Westfield
Yellow Card
Diani
Yellow Card
Westwood
Assist: Toklomati Giorno
Zaha
Yellow Card
Damiani
Yellow Card
Alladoh
Diani
Vargas
Harriel
Yellow Card
Vassilev
Jean-Jacques
Assist: Sullivan
Zaha
Assist: Biel
Agyemang
Yellow Card
Damiani
Iloski
Sery Larsen
Kahlina
Yellow Card
Sullivan
Yellow Card
Biel
Toklomati Giorno
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10W. ZahaM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
- 18K. VargasM
- 28D. DianiM
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 11L. AbadaF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 48A. JohnM
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. LukićM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 26N. HarrielD
- 29O. MakhanyaD
- 39F. WestfieldD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 16B. BenderM
- 20P. Ndinga OssibadjouoD
- 37Stas KornzeniowskiF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 76A. RickG
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Wilfried Zaha | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Tim Ream | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pep Biel | M | 89 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Idan Toklomati Jorno | F | 89 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Djibril Diani | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aron John | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Schnegg | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liel Abada | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Archie Goodwin | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandt Bronico | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Andre Blake(C) | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jovan Lukić | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ezekiel Alladoh | F | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Olwethu Makhanya | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frankie Westfield | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Milan Iloski | M | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Bedoya | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Bender | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geiner Martínez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesus Bueno | M | 26 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Philippe Ndinga | D | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Stas Kornzeniowski | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Jakupovic | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlotte vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against Charlotte.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlotte vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlotte 2–3 Philadelphia Union.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlotte vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's model gave Charlotte a 24% chance of winning, Philadelphia Union a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.