Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
Match recap
Charlotte beat Orlando City SC 4–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Kessler, Saint-Maximin, Doucouré, Saint-Maximin, and Aloko scored for Charlotte. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.34 for Charlotte versus 0.90 for Orlando City SC.
Outcome probability
Charlotte and Orlando City SC face off in what promises to be a lively encounter, with Charlotte expected to take control early and maintain pressure throughout.
Match factors
Charlotte's strong home scoring form
Charlotte averages 2.06 goals per home game, supporting a 4-1 predicted scoreline
Both teams on positive scoring streaks
Both Charlotte and Orlando City SC have scored in their last 5 matches, indicating attacking momentum
Orlando City SC missing key defenders
Orlando City SC confirmed out players include key defenders Jansson and Dorsey, weakening their defense
Charlotte's attacking forwards vs Orlando's weakened defense
Charlotte's forwards like I. Toklomati Giorno have strong recent form against a depleted Orlando defense
Orlando's creative duo Griezmann and Ojeda key to scoring
Griezmann and Ojeda lead Orlando's attack with multiple goals and assists, crucial despite defensive issues
The context
This match is part of the 2026 regular season, round 33. Historically, Orlando City SC have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, but recent form and squad availability suggest a shift in momentum.
Key insights
- I
I. Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Consistently high ratings and multiple goals recently make him a key attacking threat against Orlando's weakened defence.
Major League Soccer 26/27Ratings around 7.5-9.8, regular goal scorer in recent fixtures.
- A
A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Top scorer and assist provider, crucial for Orlando's attack despite defensive issues.
Major League Soccer 26/27High match ratings up to 9.6 with consistent goal involvement.
- M
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Leading scorer with multiple recent goals, vital for Orlando's offensive efforts.
Major League Soccer 26/27High match ratings and involvement in goal creation.
Analysis
Charlotte's attacking prowess at home is notable, averaging over two goals per game, while Orlando City SC are missing key defenders Jansson and Dorsey, which weakens their backline. Charlotte's forwards, particularly I. Toklomati Giorno, have been in fine form, consistently scoring and creating chances. Orlando's attack, led by Griezmann and Ojeda, remains potent but may struggle against Charlotte's organised defence and high pressing. The model's prediction of a 2-0 halftime lead aligns with Charlotte's tendency to start strongly, setting the stage for a comfortable 4-1 fulltime result.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte averages 2.06 goals per home game this season.
- 2.Orlando City SC have won 6 of 13 head-to-head matches against Charlotte, with 5 draws.
- 3.Head-to-head matches between these teams average 2.7 goals per game.
- 4.Orlando City SC are missing key defenders Jansson and Dorsey for this match.
- 5.Both teams have scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum.
- 6.Charlotte's I. Toklomati Giorno has been a consistent goal scorer recently.
- 7.Orlando's Griezmann and Ojeda lead their attack with multiple goals and assists.
- 8.The model predicts a 2-0 halftime score leading to a 4-1 fulltime result.
Prediction
Expect Charlotte to take an early lead and dominate the first half, going into the break 2-0 up. Orlando City SC might pull one back, but Charlotte's attacking momentum should see them extend their lead to a 4-1 victory by fulltime.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — Orlando City SC
The verdict
Charlotte's combination of home scoring strength and Orlando's defensive absences makes this a match where the home side should comfortably prevail. Fans can look forward to an entertaining game with plenty of goals and attacking flair.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 02:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kessler
Assist: Westwood
Iago
Yellow Card
Luis Otávio
Nogueira
Saint-Maximin
Assist: Toffolo
Westwood
Yellow Card
Taifi
Westwood
Pasalic
Ojeda
Abada
Diani
Toklomati Giorno
Angulo
Yellow Card
Doucouré
Saint-Maximin
Missed Penalty
Card upgrade confirmed
Saint-Maximin
Red Card
Smalls
Yellow Card
Aloko
Assist: Smalls
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
- 22H. KesslerD
- 28D. DianiM
- 44M. AgyemangD
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 6A. DoucouréM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 37R. AlokoF
- 71N. RichmondF
Orlando City SC
4-4-2Starting XI
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 16W. CartagenaD
- 19Z. TaifiD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloM
- 87Marco PasalicM
Substitutes
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 9D. DikeF
- 11TiagoF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 21N. MillerD
- 22Justin EllisF
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 35Joran GerbetM
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kahlina | G | 90 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kessler | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Westwood | M | 68 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| A. Doucouré | M | 9 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Agyemang | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Aloko | F | 15 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| A. Saint-Maximin | M | 89 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5/12 |
| H. Toffolo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Byrne | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Pep Biel | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Diani | M | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| L. de la Torre | M | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 9 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Abada | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| I. Toklomati Giorno | F | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Richmond | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Schnegg | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Bronico | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Miller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Privett | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Griezmann | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. Ojeda | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Adrián Marín | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marco Pasalic | M | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Cartagena | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Justin Ellis | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Dike | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Ojeda | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| I. Angulo | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Otávio | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Sarajian | F | 22 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Atuesta | M | 44 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Vinícius Nogueira | D | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Crépeau | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Taifi | D | 62 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Iago | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joran Gerbet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Miller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlotte vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlotte to win against Orlando City SC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlotte vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlotte 4–1 Orlando City SC.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlotte vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's model gave Charlotte a 92% chance of winning, Orlando City SC a 4% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.