Charlotte vs New York Red Bulls
Match recap
Charlotte beat New York Red Bulls 6–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Toklomati Giorno, Vargas, Biel, Zaha, Goodwin, and Goodwin scored for Charlotte; Hall replied for New York Red Bulls. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.55 for Charlotte versus 2.61 for New York Red Bulls.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Charlotte win
Actual
6–1
Outcome probability
Charlotte and New York Red Bulls face off in this Regular Season - 5 fixture, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the campaign. Charlotte's attacking strength and home form set the stage for a closely contested match.
Match factors
Charlotte's attacking trio in form
Idan Toklomati Giorno and Pep Biel lead Charlotte's attack with strong recent scoring and assisting form, likely to unlock NYRB defense
NYRB's reliance on Julian Hall
Julian Hall is NYRB's main goal threat with 10 goals and consistent starts, focal point for their attack
Charlotte's superior home scoring rate
Charlotte averages 1.9 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted home win
Pep Biel's dual threat
Pep Biel contributes both goals (11) and assists (7), showing strong form and involvement in key plays
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Historically, these teams have met 11 times, with New York Red Bulls holding a slight edge in wins (5 to Charlotte's 3) and 3 draws. Their encounters have been goal-rich affairs, averaging 3.7 goals per match, highlighting an open style when they meet.
Key insights
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Leading Charlotte's attack with 11 goals this season and a strong recent scoring run, Giorno is the key to breaking down New York's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 apps, 4 goals in last 5 games
Pep Biel
Charlotte
A dual threat with 11 goals and 7 assists, Biel's creativity and finishing make him central to Charlotte's offensive success.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 7 assists in 28 apps
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Top scorer for New York Red Bulls with 10 goals, Hall is their main attacking outlet and a constant threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 26 apps
Analysis
Charlotte boast a potent attack led by Idan Toklomati Giorno and Pep Biel, who have combined for 22 goals and assists this season. Their home scoring average of 1.9 goals per game supports the expectation of a strong offensive showing. New York Red Bulls rely heavily on Julian Hall, their top scorer with 10 goals, but may struggle to contain Charlotte's attacking trio. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring tactical plans can be executed without disruption.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte have won 3 of 11 meetings against New York Red Bulls, who have 5 wins and 3 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 3.7 goals per game, indicating open play.
- 3.Charlotte average 1.9 goals per home game this season, above league average.
- 4.Idan Toklomati Giorno leads Charlotte with 11 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Pep Biel contributes 11 goals and 7 assists, making him a key creative force for Charlotte.
- 6.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed absences.
- 8.The predicted final score is 1-0 in favour of Charlotte.
Prediction
The forecast is a narrow 1-0 victory for Charlotte, reflecting their home advantage and attacking form. While New York Red Bulls will pose threats, Charlotte's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Charlotte edging out New York Red Bulls by a single goal. The home side's attacking quality and solid defence are likely to be the difference in this closely fought encounter.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Toklomati Giorno
Assist: Biel
Diani
Yellow Card
Dos Santos
Vargas
Berggren
Red Card
Biel
Mehmeti
Cowell
Diani
Vargas
Zaha
Assist: Toffolo
Toklomati Giorno
Toffolo
Goodwin
Assist: Schnegg
Donkor
Yellow Card
Ruvalcaba
Hall
Biel
Goodwin
Assist: Abada
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10W. ZahaM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
- 18K. VargasM
- 28D. DianiM
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 11L. AbadaF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 39J. NeeleyD
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 4G. BerggrenD
- 6R. VoloderD
- 7C. CowellF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 20J. MinaD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 37M. SofoF
- 66T. RosboroughM
- 70A. RojasF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilfried Zaha | M | 96 | 8.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3/5 |
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 96 | 8.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Idan Toklomati Jorno | F | 75 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Pep Biel | M | 85 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 96 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 75 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | M | 66 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Tim Ream | D | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Djibril Diani | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jack Neeley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Archie Goodwin | F | 21 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Liel Abada | F | 30 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| David Schnegg | D | 21 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Brandt Bronico | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Hall | F | 96 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | F | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | — |
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 96 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Cade Cowell | F | 56 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Robert Voloder | D | 96 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Gustav Berggren | D | 52 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | 96 | 4.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafael Mosquera | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Mina | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Sofo | F | 40 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Tanner Rosborough | M | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tim Parker | D | 40 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Valencia | D | 51 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlotte vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlotte to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlotte vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlotte 1–0 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlotte vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Charlotte a 46% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.