Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire sneak narrow win at Charlotte
An own goal in the second half settled a tight contest in Chicago's favour.
Charlotte were left to rue a costly own goal by L. de la Torre in the 58th minute that handed Chicago Fire a slender 1-0 victory. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a comfortable home win, the match defied expectations with a tight, cagey affair decided by a single moment of misfortune. Chicago's resilience paid off in a result that will frustrate the hosts.
Outcome probability
Charlotte and Chicago Fire face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season match. Both teams have shown similar form recently, but Charlotte's home advantage and historical edge make them favourites to come out on top.
Match factors
Charlotte's Midfield Creativity vs Chicago's Defense
Pep Biel's dual threat as scorer and assister exploits Chicago's defensive vulnerabilities
Hugo Cuypers' Scoring Prowess
Cuypers leads Chicago with 13 goals in 11 games, a major threat despite recent drought
Idan Toklomati Giorno's Recent Scoring Form
Giorno scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, showing strong finishing form
Chicago Fire Missing Key Players
Confirmed outs Mbokazi and Franco weaken Chicago's defense and midfield depth
Philip Zinckernagel's Playmaking Role
Zinckernagel's 8 assists and set-piece duties provide Chicago vital creativity
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, round 27. Charlotte and Chicago Fire have met nine times previously, with Charlotte narrowly leading the head-to-head record 5-4. Their encounters have been goal-rich affairs, averaging four goals per match, suggesting an open and attacking game.
Key insights
Pep Biel
Charlotte
Pep Biel's dual threat as scorer and assister exploits Chicago's defensive vulnerabilities.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals and 6 assists in 23 apps this season
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
Cuypers leads Chicago with 13 goals in 11 games, a major threat despite recent drought.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 11 apps this season
I. Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Giorno scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, showing strong finishing form.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 3 in last 5 games
P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
Zinckernagel's 8 assists and set-piece duties provide Chicago vital creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 22 apps this season
Analysis
Charlotte's attacking threat is spearheaded by Pep Biel, who boasts 10 goals and 6 assists this season, making him a key creative and scoring force. His home form adds weight to Charlotte's chances. Chicago Fire's Hugo Cuypers, with an impressive 13 goals in 11 games, remains a potent threat despite a recent scoring lull. Chicago's playmaker Philip Zinckernagel, leading with 8 assists, will be crucial in unlocking Charlotte's defence. However, Chicago Fire are missing key players Mbokazi and Franco, which could weaken their defensive and midfield stability. The combination of Charlotte's midfield creativity and home advantage gives them the tactical edge in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte leads the head-to-head record 5 wins to 4 in 9 meetings.
- 2.Their matches average 4.0 goals per game, indicating open play.
- 3.Pep Biel has scored 10 goals and provided 6 assists this season for Charlotte.
- 4.Hugo Cuypers leads Chicago Fire with 13 goals in 11 games.
- 5.Philip Zinckernagel tops Chicago's assists chart with 8 this season.
- 6.Chicago Fire are missing key players Mbokazi and Franco due to injury.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We predict Charlotte to win 3-1, capitalising on their home advantage and slight historical edge. Pep Biel is expected to influence the game significantly, both scoring and assisting. Chicago Fire will find it tough to contain Charlotte's attacking prowess, though Hugo Cuypers may get on the scoresheet. Expect a lively match with multiple goals and a few cards, with a total of around four bookings likely.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — Chicago Fire
The verdict
While the prediction leans towards a Charlotte victory, the limited match history and missing standings data mean this call should be taken with a pinch of salt. Nonetheless, the attacking talents on display promise an entertaining contest with Charlotte just shading it 3-1.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 03:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Oregel
Yellow Card
Diani
Yellow Card
Saint-Maximin
Yellow Card
Goodwin
de la Torre (OG)
Goal cancelled
Diani
de la Torre
Biel
Yellow Card
Oregel
Leonardo Barroso
Bamba
Mbokazi
Cleary
Poręba
Yellow Card
Toffolo
Westwood
Yellow Card
Ream
Yellow Card
Ream
Red Card
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 22H. KesslerD
- 28D. DianiM
- 35Will ClearyD
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 13B. BronicoM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 20B. CoulibalyM
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 71N. RichmondF
Chicago Fire
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 18J. GómezF
- 19J. BambaM
- 24J. DeanD
- 35S. OregelM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 44J. CohenG
Substitutes
- 5S. RogersD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 22M. PinedaD
- 25J. GalG
- 29D. PorębaM
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kahlina | G | 90 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Saint-Maximin | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4/6 |
| T. Ream | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kessler | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Will Cleary | D | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| D. Diani | M | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| N. Byrne | D | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Toffolo | D | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 41 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Bronico | M | 20 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Schnegg | D | 20 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Goodwin | F | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Richmond | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Westwood | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. de la Torre | M | 70 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pep Biel | F | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Miller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Coulibaly | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Agyemang | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Privett | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Elliott | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Mbokazi | D | 80 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Leonardo Barroso | D | 75 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Dean | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pineda | D | 15 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. D'Avilla | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Zinckernagel | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Haile-Selassie | F | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1/1 |
| S. Rogers | D | 10 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gutman | D | 15 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Oregel | M | 75 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Cohen | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Poręba | M | 10 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Bamba | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 7 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| J. Gómez | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Gal | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlotte to win against Chicago Fire.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlotte 3–1 Chicago Fire.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's model gave Charlotte a 35% chance of winning, Chicago Fire a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.