Charlotte vs Austin
Match recap
Charlotte beat Austin 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Toklomati Giorno, Biel, and Biel scored for Charlotte. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.91 for Charlotte versus 0.10 for Austin.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Charlotte win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
Charlotte and Austin face off in the third round of the regular season, both eager to claim early points. With Charlotte's attacking trio in fine form and Austin missing a key creative midfielder, this promises to be a closely contested encounter.
Match factors
Charlotte's attacking trio in strong form
Giorno, Pep Biel, and Abada have high recent scoring and assist rates, boosting Charlotte's attack
Charlotte's home scoring advantage
Charlotte averages 1.9 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 2 goals
Austin missing key assister Rosales
Rosales is confirmed out, reducing Austin's midfield creativity and assist potential
Giorno's hot streak boosts scoring chances
Giorno scored 4 goals in last 5 games, indicating strong form for this fixture
Austin's Ramirez is key scoring threat
Ramirez has 9 goals with strong recent form, likely focal point for Austin's attack
The context
This match is part of the 2026 regular season, round three. Charlotte have shown strong home scoring ability, while Austin sit 13th in the league standings with 31 points from 28 games. Austin will be without midfielder J. Rosales due to suspension, which could impact their creativity.
Key insights
I. Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Top scorer with 11 goals this season and in excellent form with 4 goals in last 5 games, making him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 appearances, 0.41 goals/game
Pep Biel
Charlotte
Leading scorer and assister for Charlotte with 11 goals and 7 assists, playing a pivotal role in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 7 assists in 28 appearances
- J
J. Rosales
Austin
Suspended for this match, reducing Austin's midfield creativity and assist potential significantly.
Major League Soccer 26/276 yellow cards in 25 games
C. Ramirez
Austin
Austin's leading scorer with 9 goals, in strong recent form with 4 goals in last 5 games, key to their attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 24 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Analysis
Charlotte's attack is spearheaded by I. Toklomati Giorno and Pep Biel, both boasting 11 goals this season and recent strong form. Giorno has netted four goals in his last five games, making him a key threat. Austin rely heavily on C. Ramirez, their leading scorer with nine goals, but the absence of Rosales may blunt their offensive edge. Historically, Charlotte have won half of their head-to-head matches against Austin, with encounters averaging 2.5 goals, suggesting a lively game ahead.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte have won 2 of 4 head-to-head matches against Austin.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 total goals.
- 3.Austin are ranked 13th in their league with 31 points from 28 games.
- 4.Pep Biel has scored 2 goals in this fixture for Charlotte.
- 5.J. Rosales is suspended and will miss the match for Austin.
Prediction
After a tight first half likely to end goalless, Charlotte are expected to pull ahead in the second half to secure a 2-1 victory. The home side's scoring prowess and Austin's midfield absences tilt the balance in Charlotte's favour for this one.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — Austin
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Charlotte's attacking momentum proving decisive. Austin will fight hard, but Charlotte's combination of form and home advantage should see them through to a narrow win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:21 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zaha
Yellow Card
Biro
Red Card
Nelson
Toklomati Giorno
Unknown (OG)
Pereira
Goal Disallowed - handball
Uzuni
Yellow Card
Abada
Yellow Card
Biel
Assist: Abada
Bronico
Abada
Rosales
Sánchez
Uzuni
Westwood
Biel
Assist: de la Torre
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10W. ZahaM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 18K. VargasF
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 28D. DianiM
- 48A. John
Austin
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 7J. NelsonM
- 8D. PereiraM
- 10M. UzuniF
- 11F. TorresM
- 17J. GallagherD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
Substitutes
- 12D. LasG
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 15J. BellD
- 19C. FodreyM
- 20N. DubersarskyM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 23Ž. KolmaničD
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pep Biel | M | 90 | 8.0 | 2 | — | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 89 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Wilfried Zaha | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Tim Ream | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Idan Toklomati Jorno | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Liel Abada | M | 69 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/6 |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandt Bronico | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Djibril Diani | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Schnegg | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Archie Goodwin | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | F | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/5 |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 21 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
Austin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Stuver | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilie Sánchez(C) | M | 74 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Oleksandr Svatok | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Pereira | M | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Jayden Nelson | M | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Brendan Hines-Ike | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Torres | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jon Gallagher | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Myrto Uzuni | F | 75 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 25 | 4.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Žan Kolmanič | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ervin Torres | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateja Đorđević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Damian Las | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Besard Sabović | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ramirez | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calvin Fodrey | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Dubersarsky | M | 54 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Charlotte vs Austin?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlotte to win against Austin.
- What score did Fipster predict for Charlotte vs Austin?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Charlotte 2–1 Austin.
- What were the win probabilities for Charlotte vs Austin?
- Fipster's model gave Charlotte a 95% chance of winning, Austin a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.