Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC
Charlotte and Atlanta share spoils in MLS stalemate
A spirited 2-2 draw sees Atlanta claw back twice to deny Charlotte a home win.
Charlotte looked set for victory with goals from K. Vargas and L. Abada before the break, but Atlanta United FC fought back after the interval through E. Báez and M. Almirón to level the match. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's prediction of a 2-0 home win, proving the model's confidence misplaced in this evenly contested affair.
Analysis
Charlotte and Atlanta United FC face off in this MLS regular season clash, with Charlotte showing promising home form and Atlanta missing key attacking players.
Charlotte have been scoring consistently at home, averaging around two goals per game, while Atlanta United FC have struggled defensively on the road. Atlanta's attack is further weakened by the absence of key players Emmanuel Latte Lath and Steven Alzate, impacting their creativity and goal threat.
Charlotte's forward Idan Toklomati has been in excellent form, netting multiple goals in recent home matches, making him a significant threat. Midfielder Pep Biel also adds to Charlotte's attacking prowess with his recent goal involvements. Atlanta's doubts over Fafà Picault due to a hamstring injury further limit their offensive options. The statistical edge heavily favours Charlotte, with an 85% probability of a home win and a most likely scoreline of 2-0.
Prediction
Expect Charlotte to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 1-0 halftime score, and maintain control to secure a 2-0 victory by fulltime. The match is also expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Charlotte's home scoring form vs Atlanta's defensive struggles
Charlotte averages 2 goals at home with strong recent scoring streaks; Atlanta concedes frequently away, increasing Charlotte's scoring chances
Toklomati's consistent goal scoring at home
Idan Toklomati has scored multiple goals in recent home matches, outperforming league forward averages
Pep Biel's strong recent goal involvement
Pep Biel has scored and assisted multiple times recently, showing good form and attacking influence
Atlanta missing key attackers Latte Lath and Alzate
Atlanta's confirmed absences of key attacker Emmanuel Latte Lath and midfielder Steven Alzate weaken their attacking and midfield creativity
Doubtful status of Picault limits Atlanta's attacking threat
Fafà Picault's hamstring injury and doubtful status cap his impact probability, reducing Atlanta's offensive options
Key Takeaways
Charlotte's strong home form and key player performances, combined with Atlanta's injury concerns, make a convincing case for a home win. Fans can anticipate a disciplined match with Charlotte edging out a 2-0 victory.
- Charlotte averages 2 goals per home game this season.
- Idan Toklomati has scored multiple goals in recent home fixtures.
- Pep Biel has contributed several goals and assists recently at home.
- Atlanta United FC are missing key attackers Emmanuel Latte Lath and Steven Alzate.
- Fafà Picault is doubtful with a hamstring injury, limiting Atlanta's attack.
- The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Charlotte.
- The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-0 to Charlotte.
- The match is expected to feature around 4 cards.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Charlotte
Away — Atlanta United FC
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vargas
Reilly
Yellow Card
Abada
Assist: Biel
Miranchuk
Yellow Card
Báez
Assist: Jacob
de la Torre
Abada
Goodwin
Cleary
Almirón
Byrne
Yellow Card
Picault
Vargas
Sanchez
Alonso
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Charlotte
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 18K. VargasM
- 35Will ClearyD
- 44M. AgyemangD
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 21T. MillerG
- 22H. KesslerD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 28D. DianiM
- 37R. AlokoF
Atlanta United FC
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1L. HoyosG
- 3E. BáezD
- 4E. MihajD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 28William ReillyM
- 48C. SanchezM
- 55T. JacobD
- 59A. MiranchukM
Substitutes
- 2R. HernándezD
- 5S. GregersenD
- 16Adrian GillM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 41T. B. MajubD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 56I. SuarezM
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 98 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | 8 | — |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | M | 85 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| Liel Abada | M | 63 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Pep Biel | F | 98 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Ream | D | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Archie Goodwin | F | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Will Cleary | D | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Brandt Bronico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henry Kessler | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Djibril Diani | M | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Rodolfo Aloko | F | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Idan Toklomati | F | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Atlanta United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Hoyos | G | 98 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Almirón(C) | M | 98 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Elías Báez | D | 98 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Junior Alonso | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tristan Muyumba | M | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Enea Mihaj | D | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| William Reilly | M | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Aleksey Miranchuk | M | 98 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Cooper Sanchez | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Tomás Jacob | D | 98 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Fafà Picault | F | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ronald Hernández | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden Hibbert | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cayman Togashi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stian Gregersen | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Gill | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toto Majub | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Suarez-Couri | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luke Brennan | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |