Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria
Match recap
Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Neto Pessoa scored for Chapecoense-sc; Matheuzinho replied for Vitoria. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.15 for Chapecoense-sc versus 1.45 for Vitoria. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Vitoria are 14th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Chapecoense-sc win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Chapecoense and Vitoria face off in a regular season match where both sides will be eager to improve their league standings. With Chapecoense sitting lower in the table, they will be keen to capitalise on their home form and attacking strengths.
Match factors
Chapecoense's attacking trio in form
Marcinho and Giovanni Augusto lead Chapecoense's attack with strong recent goal and assist form, likely to create scoring chances.
Vitoria's Rene is a potent scoring threat
Rene's 9 goals this season and recent scoring streak make him a key threat against Chapecoense's defense.
Chapecoense's home scoring streak
Chapecoense has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing offensive consistency at home.
Vitoria's positive recent form
Vitoria has scored in last 5 matches and won 2 of last 5, showing upward momentum.
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans.
The context
Chapecoense currently occupy 20th place with 18 points from 29 games, while Vitoria are positioned 12th with 36 points from 30 matches. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced with Chapecoense winning 4 of 13 meetings, Vitoria 5, and 4 draws.
Key insights
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho leads Chapecoense’s attack with 5 goals this season and has shown strong recent away scoring form, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 27 appearances, 0.19 goals/game
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto is the creative engine with 5 assists this season, providing key passes and linking midfield to attack effectively.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 20 appearances, 0.25 assists/game
Rene
Vitoria
Rene is Vitoria’s main scoring threat with 9 goals this season and a strong recent run of 4 goals in 5 games.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 appearances, 0.39 goals/game
Analysis
Chapecoense's attacking duo of Marcinho and Giovanni Augusto have been influential, with Marcinho netting 5 goals this season and Giovanni providing 5 assists. Their home scoring streak, having scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, adds to their attacking threat. Vitoria's main danger comes from Rene, who has 9 goals this season and is in strong recent form. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a competitive match with chances at both ends.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense are 20th in the league with 18 points from 29 games (W3 D9 L17).
- 2.Vitoria sit 12th with 36 points from 30 games (W10 D6 L14).
- 3.In 13 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense have won 4, Vitoria 5, with 4 draws.
- 4.Chapecoense have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 5.Marcinho is Chapecoense's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists this season.
- 7.Rene is Vitoria's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 8.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed absences.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Chapecoense with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, consistent with the fulltime result. The match is likely to be competitive but Chapecoense's home advantage and attacking form should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Vitoria
The verdict
In summary, Chapecoense's recent home performances and key players' form give them the edge over Vitoria. Expect a tight contest with Chapecoense clinching a narrow 2-1 victory to boost their league campaign.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Everton
Yellow Card
Everton
Edenilson
Yellow Card
Edenilson
Red Card
Ronald
Yellow Card
Pacheco
Kayzer
Ronald
Camutanga
Tarzia
Italo
Anderson
Yellow Card
Cacá
Yellow Card
João Vitor
Jean Carlos
Neto Pessoa
Assist: Marcos Vinícius
Caíque
Ramon
Yellow Card
Marcos Vinícius
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 3DomaD
- 5João VitorM
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 26EvertonD
- 27CamiloM
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 77ItaloM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
Substitutes
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 4João PauloD
- 7MarcinhoF
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 37W. ClarD
- 38WermesonM
- 70RubensM
- 98AndersonG
Vitoria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 4CamutangaD
- 8RonaldM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 26EdenilsonD
- 33ErickM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 28AndersonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 45NathanD
- 55José BrenoM
- 62PabloM
- 91ReneF
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ênio | M | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2/2 |
| Camilo | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rafael Santos | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | 83 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Italo | M | 67 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Everton | D | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Carlos | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rubens Tadeu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wemerson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Balieiro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Caetano | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | 18 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | 72 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Marcinho | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Walter Clar | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| David Antunes | M | 18 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camutanga(C) | D | 56 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Diego Tarzia | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | D | 38 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| José Breno | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 12 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Anderson Pato | M | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 2–1 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 58% chance of winning, Vitoria a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 58% confidence — a medium-confidence call.