Chapecoense-sc vs Santos
Match recap
Chapecoense-sc beat Santos 4–2 in their Serie A fixture. Clar, Higor Meritão, Jean Carlos, and Carvalheira scored for Chapecoense-sc; Gabriel Menino and Barreal replied for Santos. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.80 for Chapecoense-sc versus 1.23 for Santos. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Santos are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 Santos win
Actual
4–2
Outcome probability
The Brazilian league kicks off with a clash between Chapecoense-sc and Santos, two teams with contrasting fortunes this season. Santos, sitting comfortably in the top half, look to continue their scoring streak against a struggling Chapecoense-sc side.
Match factors
Gabriel Barbosa's prolific scoring form
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 13 goals this season, including 5 in last 5 games, boosting their attack
Giovanni Augusto's creative influence for Chapecoense
Giovanni Augusto tops Chapecoense's assists with 5 this season, key to their attacking chances
Chapecoense missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira
Rafael Carvalheira is out with knee injury, reducing midfield creativity and goal threat
Santos' attacking trio outperforms Chapecoense's frontline
Santos' attackers have higher scoring rates and better recent form, likely to dominate
Santos on a positive scoring streak
Santos have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
The context
Chapecoense-sc have struggled this season, positioned 20th with just 18 points from 28 games, while Santos hold a more respectable 8th place with 42 points from 29 games. Historically, Santos have had the upper hand in their 17 meetings, winning 10 to Chapecoense-sc's 5, with 2 draws.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 13 goals this season, including 5 in the last 5 matches, making him a key threat away from home.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 apps, 5 goals last 5 games
Neymar
Santos
Neymar's 8 goals and 3 assists in 13 games highlight his role as a creative and scoring force for Santos.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 3 assists in 13 apps
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto is Chapecoense-sc's top assister with 5 assists, crucial for their attacking chances despite the team's struggles.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 19 apps
Analysis
Santos boast a potent attack led by Gabriel Barbosa, who has netted 13 goals this season, including five in his last five matches. Neymar also contributes significantly with 8 goals and 3 assists, making Santos a formidable force going forward. Chapecoense-sc rely on Giovanni Augusto for creativity, but their overall goal difference and form lag behind Santos. The predicted 3-1 scoreline reflects Santos' attacking superiority and Chapecoense-sc's defensive vulnerabilities.
Key facts
- 1.Santos are ranked 8th with 42 points from 29 games, Chapecoense-sc 20th with 18 points from 28 games.
- 2.Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 13 goals this season, including 5 in the last 5 matches.
- 3.Neymar has contributed 8 goals and 3 assists in 13 games for Santos.
- 4.Giovanni Augusto tops Chapecoense-sc's assists with 5 this season.
- 5.In 17 head-to-head meetings, Santos have won 10, Chapecoense-sc 5, with 2 draws.
- 6.Santos have a significantly better goal difference (30 goals) than Chapecoense-sc this season.
Prediction
Expect Santos to dominate the match and secure a 3-1 victory. Their recent scoring form and attacking trio outshine Chapecoense-sc's frontline, making an away win the most probable outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Santos
The verdict
Santos look set to start their campaign with a convincing win, continuing their positive momentum. Chapecoense-sc will need to tighten their defence and find more creativity to challenge stronger opponents in the future.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Duarte
Yellow Card
Brazão
Yellow Card
Clar
Penalty
Marcos Vinícius
Yellow Card
Gabriel Menino
Assist: Igor Vinicius
Caballero
Marcos Vinícius
Marcinho
Giovanni Augusto
Camilo
Yellow Card
Barreal
Assist: Zé Rafael
Camilo
Higor Meritão
Unknown
Díaz
Zé Rafael
Jean Carlos
Gabriel Menino
Yellow Card
Terceros
Gabriel Menino
Carvalheira
Assist: Jean Carlos
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
5-3-2Starting XI
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 3DomaD
- 4João Paulo
- 7MarcinhoF
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 12Léo VieiraG
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 27CamiloM
- 37W. ClarD
- 77ItaloF
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 5João VitorM
- 8Robert SantosF
- 9PerottiF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 19David Antunes
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 26EvertonD
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 70RubensM
Santos
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 4A. DuarteD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 6Zé RafaelM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 19L. DíazF
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 30M. TercerosF
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 8T. RincónM
- 13João BassoD
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 47Mateus XavierF
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 95 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Italo | F | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Victor Caetano | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcinho | F | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Clar | D | 95 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Giovanni Augusto(C) | M | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Vieira | G | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Perotti | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Carlos | M | 37 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | 27 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Robert Santos | F | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Everton | D | 50 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 37 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Menino | M | 89 | 8.6 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2/3 |
| João Schmidt(C) | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Miguelito | F | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 | 2/6 |
| Zé Rafael | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Luan Peres | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Caballero | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 95 | 5.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | 95 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Alexis Duarte | D | 95 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 95 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tomás Rincón | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateus Xavier de Sousa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Basso | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 50 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Robinho Júnior | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 1–3 Santos.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 2% chance of winning, Santos a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.