Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio
Match recap
Chapecoense-sc and Gremio drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Clar scored for Chapecoense-sc; Nardoni replied for Gremio. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.11 for Chapecoense-sc versus 0.69 for Gremio. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Chapecoense-sc win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Chapecoense and Gremio face off in the Brazilian league's regular season round 6, with both sides eager to climb the table. The match promises attacking intent, but Chapecoense's recent home scoring streak and creative midfield could prove decisive.
Match factors
Chapecoense's creative midfield edge
Giovanni Augusto's 5 assists and strong recent form provide Chapecoense a creative advantage
Marcinho's goal-scoring form
Marcinho has 4 goals in last 10 games, outperforming league average attackers
Gremio's reliance on Carlos Vinícius
Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals, focal point of attack but no recent goals in last 5
Chapecoense missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira
Rafael Carvalheira is out injured, reducing midfield goal threat and depth
Chapecoense's recent scoring streak at home
Chapecoense scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals
The context
Chapecoense currently sit 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games, while Gremio are 18th with 30 points from 29 matches. Historically, Gremio have had the upper hand in their 17 meetings, but recent form and home advantage give Chapecoense a fighting chance.
Key insights
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho has been in fine form with 4 goals in the last 10 games, making him a key threat for Chapecoense.
Serie A 26/274 goals in last 10 games, 24 appearances, 1331 mins
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto's 5 assists and creative playmaking give Chapecoense a midfield edge.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 19 games, 973 mins
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals but has lacked recent scoring form.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 28 games, 2171 mins, 26 starts
Analysis
Chapecoense's Giovanni Augusto leads the creative charge with 5 assists this season, providing a vital spark in midfield. Marcinho, their top scorer with 4 goals in the last 10 games, is expected to continue his fine form. Gremio rely heavily on Carlos Vinícius, who has 10 goals this season but has been less prolific recently. Chapecoense's home scoring consistency and midfield creativity suggest they can outscore Gremio despite the visitors' resilience.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense are 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games (W3 D9 L16).
- 2.Gremio are 18th with 30 points from 29 games (W7 D9 L13).
- 3.In 17 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense have won 4, Gremio 8, with 5 draws.
- 4.Chapecoense's Marcinho has scored 4 goals in the last 10 games.
- 5.Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists this season.
- 6.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Chapecoense have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Prediction
We predict Chapecoense to take the win with a 3-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-0, reflecting Chapecoense's strong start and ability to control the game early on. The match should feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Gremio
The verdict
Chapecoense's attacking flair and home form should see them through against Gremio. With key players like Marcinho and Giovanni Augusto in good shape, the home side look set to claim all three points in this Brazilian league fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Viery
Yellow Card
Clar
Penalty
Everton
Yellow Card
Bolasie
Yellow Card
Nardoni
Monsalve
Yellow Card
Italo
Giovanni Augusto
Monsalve
Amuzu
Tetê
Bolasie
João Vitor
Doma
Yellow Card
Higor Meritão
Noriega
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 5João VitorM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 12Léo VieiraG
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 26EvertonD
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 37W. ClarD
- 77ItaloF
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 4João PauloD
- 7MarcinhoF
- 9PerottiF
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 70RubensM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 7C. PavónD
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 21TetêF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 44VieryD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 10WillianM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 33L. PérezM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 39TiagoM
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 77André HenriqueF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Vitor | M | 84 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Walter Clar | D | 97 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Giovanni Augusto | F | 59 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Italo | F | 58 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Vieira | G | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | D | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafael Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Caetano | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ênio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Balieiro | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Carlos | M | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Marcinho | F | 39 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| David Antunes | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Perotti | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Nardoni | M | 97 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Fabián Balbuena(C) | D | 97 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/4 |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Weverton | G | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian | M | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| José Enamorado | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 3–1 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.