Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc edges Fluminense in tight tussle
Giovanni Augusto's second-half strike seals a narrow win for the hosts.
Chapecoense-sc secured a narrow 2-1 victory over Fluminense in Serie A, with Y. Bolasie opening the scoring early on before Guga levelled for the visitors. Giovanni Augusto's decisive goal after the break proved the difference in a closely contested match. Fipster's low-confidence prediction for a home win was on the money, even if the exact scoreline missed the mark.
Outcome probability
Chapecoense and Fluminense face off in what promises to be a competitive clash, with both sides eager to secure vital points in the regular season. Expect a match full of attacking intent and a few twists along the way.
Match factors
Fluminense missing key striker John Kennedy
John Kennedy, Fluminense's top scorer with 9 goals, is confirmed out due to knee injury, weakening their attack
Chapecoense's Marcinho leads home scoring threat
Marcinho's strong home scoring form and recent goal streak provide Chapecoense a key attacking edge
Fluminense's creative midfield depth offsets striker absence
Fluminense's midfielders like Acosta and Savarino have solid assist records, maintaining offensive creativity despite striker injury
Chapecoense's recent scoring streak at home
Chapecoense has scored in 4 consecutive home games, showing improved attacking form despite overall poor season
Defensive leadership from Chapecoense's Eduardo Doma
Captain Eduardo Doma's consistent defensive performances are crucial to contain Fluminense's attackers
The context
The two teams have a fairly balanced head-to-head record, with Chapecoense holding six wins to Fluminense's five, alongside four draws. Fluminense currently sit comfortably higher in the league standings, but Chapecoense's recent home scoring streak adds an intriguing dynamic to this encounter.
Key insights
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho's strong home scoring form and recent goal streak provide Chapecoense a key attacking edge.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 28 appearances, 3 in last 10 games
L. Acosta
Fluminense
L. Acosta's consistent creative presence with 5 assists keeps Fluminense's attack ticking despite striker injury.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 25 appearances
- J
John Kennedy
Fluminense
John Kennedy's absence due to knee injury weakens Fluminense's attacking options significantly.
Serie A 26/279 goals this season before injury
Analysis
Despite Fluminense's superior league position and points per game, Chapecoense's home form and attacking threats cannot be overlooked. Marcinho leads the charge for Chapecoense with five goals this season, showing particular prowess at home. Fluminense, missing their top scorer John Kennedy due to injury, will rely on creative midfielders like L. Acosta and J. Savarino to fill the gap. The match is expected to be tight, with a likely 1-1 score at halftime and a narrow 3-2 victory for Chapecoense by fulltime.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense have won 6 of 15 head-to-head matches against Fluminense, who have 5 wins and 4 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head encounters average 3.0 goals per game, indicating an open style of play.
- 3.Fluminense rank 4th in the league with 51 points, well above Chapecoense's 20th place and 18 points.
- 4.Fluminense average 1.70 points per game compared to Chapecoense's 0.60, showing stronger overall form.
- 5.Chapecoense have scored in their last 4 home games, showing improved attacking form.
- 6.Fluminense's top scorer John Kennedy is out with a knee injury, impacting their attacking options.
- 7.Marcinho is Chapecoense's top scorer with 5 goals, including strong home performances.
- 8.Fluminense's L. Acosta leads their assists tally with 5, maintaining creative threat despite striker absence.
Prediction
The prediction favours Chapecoense to secure a 3-2 win after a balanced first half ending 1-1. The game should be lively and competitive, with both sides finding the net multiple times and a total of four cards expected to keep things spicy.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, while Fluminense have the edge on paper, Chapecoense's home advantage and attacking form make them the slight favourites to take all three points in a thrilling 3-2 encounter. Expect goals, drama, and a closely fought contest until the final whistle.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal
Guga
Assist: Hulk
Yellow Card
Unknown
Goal
Yellow Card
PH Ganso
Wesley Nata
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Hércules
Unknown
Rabello
Hulk
Guilherme Arana
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 4João PauloD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 27CamiloM
- 31GarcezM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 98AndersonG
Substitutes
- 12FernandoD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 19David AntunesM
- 22MaxM
- 23DuduD
- 29F. RossiF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 39RodrigoF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 94K. RamírezF
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 4IgnacioD
- 7HulkF
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 34Wesley NataM
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 6RenêD
- 14G. CanoF
- 17A. CanobbioF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 22J. FreytesD
- 28RiquelmeF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guga | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Hércules | M | 79 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Hulk | F | 85 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Riquelme | F | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Ignacio | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Acosta | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Castillo | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Renê | D | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| PH Ganso | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Serna | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Wesley Nata | M | 65 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Freytes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Cano | F | 5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 3–2 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 44% confidence — a low-confidence call.