Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba
Match recap
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba drew 3–3 in their Serie A fixture. Clar, Doma, and Rubens scored for Chapecoense-sc; Breno Lopes, Breno Lopes, and Rocha replied for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.74 for Chapecoense-sc versus 1.95 for Coritiba. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Chapecoense-sc win
Actual
3–3
Outcome probability
This Brazilian Serie A fixture sees Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba face off in what promises to be an entertaining encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Chapecoense-sc's home advantage and creative midfield could prove decisive.
Match factors
Chapecoense-sc's attacking midfield creativity
Giovanni Augusto's 5 assists and Marcinho's scoring form provide strong attacking synergy
Coritiba's top scorers have higher goal tallies
Breno Lopes and Pedro Rocha lead with 8 goals each, indicating stronger scoring potential
Chapecoense-sc missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira
Rafael Carvalheira is out with knee injury, reducing midfield depth and creativity
Chapecoense-sc's recent home scoring streak
Chapecoense-sc has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals
Coritiba's Josué as key assist provider
Josué's 10 assists and set-piece role make him a major creative threat
The context
Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba have a balanced head-to-head record with five wins each and three draws in 13 meetings. Currently, Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games, while Coritiba are 9th with 38 points from 29 games. Despite Coritiba's superior goal difference and points per game, Chapecoense-sc's recent home scoring streak adds an intriguing dynamic to this match.
Key insights
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto's 5 assists and creative playmaking provide Chapecoense-sc with strong attacking opportunities.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 19 apps, 0.263 avg per game
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho is Chapecoense-sc's top scorer with 3 goals this season, showing strong recent form with 2 goals in the last 5 matches.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 24 apps, 0.125 avg per game
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 10 assists and set-piece duties make him a major creative threat for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, 0.385 avg per game
- B
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
Breno Lopes leads Coritiba's scoring with 8 goals, indicating a strong goal threat despite recent dry spells.
Serie A 26/278 goals this season
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc's attacking midfield creativity, led by Giovanni Augusto with 5 assists, pairs well with Marcinho, their top scorer with 3 goals this season and strong recent form. Coritiba's attacking threat comes from Breno Lopes and Pedro Rocha, both with 8 goals, and Josué's 10 assists make him a key playmaker. However, Chapecoense-sc's home form and attacking synergy give them the edge in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense-sc and Coritiba have met 13 times with 5 wins each and 3 draws.
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games.
- 3.Coritiba sit 9th with 38 points from 29 games and a better goal difference.
- 4.Marcinho is Chapecoense-sc's top scorer with 3 goals this season.
- 5.Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense-sc with 5 assists.
- 6.Coritiba's Josué has 10 assists, the highest in the league.
- 7.Chapecoense-sc have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 8.The predicted total cards for the match is 4.
Prediction
We predict a 3-1 victory for Chapecoense-sc, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The home side's attacking prowess and recent form suggest they will outscore Coritiba, who will find it tough to contain the hosts' creativity and finishing. Expect a competitive match with around four cards shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Coritiba
No standout top scorers flagged for Coritiba
The verdict
Chapecoense-sc's blend of home advantage and attacking midfield creativity should see them through to a 3-1 win over Coritiba. While the visitors have quality in attack, the hosts' recent form and key players like Marcinho and Giovanni Augusto are likely to make the difference.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Breno Lopes
Assist: Lucas Ronier
Clar
Assist: Everton
Camilo
Maicon
Lavega
Breno Lopes
Rocha
Assist: Lucas Ronier
Everton
Yellow Card
Carvalheira
Marcinho
Everton
Doma
Assist: Jean Carlos
Willian Oliveira
Rocha
Cóser
Yellow Card
Lucas Ronier
Higor Meritão
Yellow Card
Jean Carlos
Rubens
Assist: Clar
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 7MarcinhoF
- 12Léo VieiraG
- 20Jean CarlosF
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 26EvertonM
- 27CamiloM
- 31GarcezF
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 37W. ClarM
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 5João VitorM
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 19David Antunes
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 70RubensM
- 77ItaloF
- 90MailsonF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 7J. LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 8WallissonM
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 14Enzo VágnerF
- 16João VitorD
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 22Felipe GuimarãesD
- 28FabinhoF
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 55JacyD
- 88Fernando SobralM
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Clar | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Everton | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Camilo | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jean Carlos | F | 87 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | — |
| Marcinho | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Maurício Garcez | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Caetano | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bruno Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mailson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | 21 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Italo | F | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Higor Meritão | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breno Lopes | M | 83 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 73 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 3 | 4/5 |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 55 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Willian Oliveira | M | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Josué | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Maicon(C) | D | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Morisco | G | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rangel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Almeida | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Guimarães | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 35 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo | F | 17 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 3–1 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 95% chance of winning, Coritiba a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.