Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
Match recap
Atletico Paranaense beat Chapecoense-sc 4–1 in their Serie A fixture. Leozinho, Luiz Gustavo, Viveros, and Viveros scored for Atletico Paranaense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.69 for Chapecoense-sc versus 1.39 for Atletico Paranaense. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Atletico Paranaense are 4th.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Chapecoense-sc face a stern test against Atletico Paranaense. Both sides have had contrasting fortunes this campaign, setting the stage for an intriguing clash.
Match factors
Kevin Viveros' scoring prowess vs Chapecoense defense
Viveros leads with 18 goals this season, posing a major threat to Chapecoense's leaky defense conceding 2.04 goals per game
Chapecoense's defensive struggles at home
Chapecoense concedes 2.23 goals per game at home, increasing likelihood of Atletico Paranaense scoring multiple goals
Giovanni Augusto's creative influence
Giovanni Augusto has 5 assists this season and recent key passes, boosting Chapecoense's chance to score
Atletico Paranaense's balanced attack with multiple threats
Besides Viveros, players like João Cruz and Leozinho provide assist and goal support, making defense harder to predict
The context
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games, struggling to find consistency. Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, hold a strong 3rd place with 49 points, reflecting their more potent form and goal-scoring ability.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
League top scorer with 18 goals, posing a major threat to Chapecoense's leaky defence conceding over 2 goals per game at home.
Serie A 26/2718 goals in 26 appearances, 0.69 goals/game
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Creative playmaker with 5 assists this season, crucial for Chapecoense's attacking chances despite overall team struggles.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 19 appearances, 0.26 assists/game
João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
Key assister with 5 assists, providing set-piece threat and creative support to Atletico's attack.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 21 appearances, 0.24 assists/game
Analysis
Historically, Atletico Paranaense have the upper hand with five wins to Chapecoense-sc's two in their 19 meetings, alongside 12 draws. This season, Atletico boast a remarkable goal difference of +39 compared to Chapecoense's -28, highlighting the gulf in quality. Chapecoense concede over two goals per game at home, which bodes ill against Atletico's attacking threats. Kevin Viveros Rodallega leads the charge with 18 goals, making him a constant menace. Chapecoense's Giovanni Augusto offers creativity with five assists, but it may not be enough to stem the tide.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense-sc are 20th in the league with 18 points from 28 games (3 wins, 9 draws, 16 losses).
- 2.Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd with 49 points from 28 games (14 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses).
- 3.In 19 head-to-head matches, Atletico Paranaense have won 5 times, Chapecoense-sc 2 times, with 12 draws.
- 4.Atletico Paranaense have a goal difference of +39; Chapecoense-sc have -28.
- 5.Chapecoense-sc concede an average of 2.23 goals per home game this season.
- 6.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is the league's top scorer with 18 goals in 26 appearances.
- 7.Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense-sc with 5 assists in 19 appearances.
- 8.Four cards are predicted in this match, indicating a competitive encounter.
Prediction
Expect a high-scoring affair with Atletico Paranaense narrowly prevailing 3-2. The halftime scoreline of 2-1 in favour of Atletico suggests an early offensive burst, with Chapecoense fighting back but ultimately falling short. Four cards are likely to be shown, reflecting the competitive nature of the encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Atletico Paranaense
The verdict
Atletico Paranaense's superior form and firepower should see them edge this contest. Chapecoense-sc will provide resistance, but the visitors' balanced attack and clinical finishing are expected to secure the points.
Prediction generated 9 Oct 2026, 01:04 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Leozinho
Assist: Gilberto
Luiz Gustavo
Viveros
Assist: Gilberto
Yellow Card
Leozinho
Dias
Esquivel
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
Unknown
Gilberto
Yellow Card
Unknown
Goal
Viveros
Assist: Dudu
Gilberto
Unknown
Luiz Gustavo
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4João PauloD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 23DuduD
- 31GarcezM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 98AndersonG
Substitutes
- 3DomaD
- 6ManchaD
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 19David AntunesM
- 20Bruno TubarãoF
- 29F. RossiF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 39RodrigoF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 12GilbertoM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 23SantosG
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 47ChiquetiM
- 53DuduM
- 70RenanF
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Viveros | F | 90 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Leozinho | M | 46 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Mycael | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mendoza | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Claudinho | D | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gilberto | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. Esquivel | D | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Aguirre | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dudu | M | 44 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Arthur Dias | D | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Léo | D | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Portilla | M | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Zapelli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 2–3 Atletico Paranaense.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 16% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 68% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 68% confidence — a high-confidence call.