Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG
Match recap
Atletico-MG beat Chapecoense-sc 4–0 in their Serie A fixture. Bernard, Reinier, Cuello, and Dudu scored for Atletico-MG. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.82 for Chapecoense-sc versus 1.74 for Atletico-MG. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in the Serie A table while Atletico-MG are 6th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Chapecoense-sc win
Actual
0–4
Outcome probability
This upcoming fixture between Chapecoense and Atletico-MG promises a competitive encounter as both sides look to improve their standings. Chapecoense, currently struggling near the bottom, will be eager to claim a vital win against a mid-table Atletico-MG side.
Match factors
Chapecoense's Marcinho vs Atletico-MG defense
Marcinho's strong away scoring form and role as focal attacker gives Chapecoense a key edge in attack
Giovanni Augusto's creative influence
Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists, significantly above league average for midfielders
Atletico-MG's consistent scoring streak
Atletico-MG has scored in last 5 matches, with Cuello and Reinier contributing key goals
Renan Lodi's set-piece threat
Renan Lodi's 3 assists from defense and set-piece duties provide Atletico-MG an attacking outlet
Full squads available for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, ensuring strongest lineups possible
The context
Atletico-MG sit comfortably in 7th place with 47 points, while Chapecoense find themselves 20th with just 18 points. Historically, Atletico-MG have the upper hand with six wins to Chapecoense's four in their 16 meetings, alongside six draws. The goal difference also favours Atletico-MG, who boast a +6 compared to Chapecoense's -31.
Key insights
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho's strong away scoring form and role as focal attacker gives Chapecoense a key edge in attack.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 27 appearances, 0.185 goals/game
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists, significantly above league average for midfielders, providing creative spark.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 20 appearances, 0.25 assists/game
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
Cuello is Atletico-MG's top scorer with 5 goals and has been in strong recent form, contributing consistently.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 appearances, 0.2 goals/game
Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG
Renan Lodi's 3 assists from defense and set-piece duties provide Atletico-MG an important attacking outlet.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 25 appearances, 0.12 assists/game
Analysis
Despite Atletico-MG's stronger league position and better goal difference, Chapecoense's attacking threat, led by Marcinho, could prove decisive. Marcinho has netted five goals this season and has been particularly effective away from home, scoring twice in his last three away games. Giovanni Augusto's creativity, with five assists, also provides Chapecoense with a vital attacking outlet. Atletico-MG's Tomás Cuello and Reinier have been consistent scorers, but Chapecoense's home advantage and tactical setup might just tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Chapecoense are 20th in the league with 18 points from 29 games (3 wins, 9 draws, 17 losses).
- 2.Atletico-MG are 7th with 47 points from 30 games (13 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses).
- 3.In 16 head-to-head matches, Atletico-MG have 6 wins, Chapecoense 4, with 6 draws.
- 4.Atletico-MG have a goal difference of +6; Chapecoense have -31.
- 5.Marcinho is Chapecoense's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists.
- 7.Tomás Cuello is Atletico-MG's top scorer with 5 goals.
- 8.No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Chapecoense, with the home side edging out Atletico-MG in a closely contested match. The halftime score is expected to be 1-1, reflecting a competitive first half before Chapecoense clinch the win in the second period. The match should feature a moderate number of cards, around three in total.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Chapecoense-sc
Away — Atletico-MG
The verdict
Chapecoense's resilience and key players' form could see them claim a crucial win against Atletico-MG. While Atletico-MG have the stats on their side, the home team's attacking edge and determination make this a finely balanced contest with Chapecoense just about prevailing.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Giovanni Augusto
Bernard
Reinier
Assist: Hulk
Cuello
Assist: Reinier
Victor Caetano
Yellow Card
Italo
Victor Caetano
Carvalheira
Bernard
Reinier
Bolasie
Victor Hugo
Hulk
Renan Lodi
Dudu
Assist: Cuello
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 3DomaD
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 25Victor CaetanoM
- 27CamiloM
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 37W. ClarD
- 77ItaloM
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 4João PauloD
- 5João VitorM
- 7MarcinhoF
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 94K. RamírezF
- 97ÊnioM
- 98AndersonG
Atletico-MG
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2NatanaelD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 7HulkF
- 11BernardM
- 13LyancoD
- 16Renan LodiD
- 19ReinierF
- 22EversonG
- 25T. PérezM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
Substitutes
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 3I. RománD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 17Igor GomesM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 29CauaF
- 36K. PasciniD
- 40VitãoD
- 92DuduF
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Augusto | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Victor Caetano | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Italo | M | 45 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Walter Clar | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Rafael Santos | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Anderson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Thyere | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Antunes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ênio | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kevin Ramírez | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jean Carlos | M | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomás Cuello | M | 90 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0/3 |
| Reinier | F | 67 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ruan | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everson | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lyanco | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Bernard | M | 67 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Renan Lodi | D | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hulk(C) | F | 81 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Victor Hugo | M | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Cauã Soares | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Román | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Franco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 9 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | 23 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kauã Pascini | D | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mateo Cassierra | F | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Chapecoense-sc 2–1 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Chapecoense-sc a 52% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.